realized edge -1.7 pp, 95% CI [-20.3, +13.8], n=27
Realized edge -1.7 probability points across 27 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-20.3, +13.8]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.
Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.
Buy a walk of your own record. We read this address's settled positions from the Polygon chain and deliver the result on the wallet's own page, as the same read a subscriber's set gets, walked to a stated Polygon block. It reads the record; it does not promise skill.
Checking someone else's wallet? The same walk applies. What full reads have returned so far:
Of the 360 Polymarket wallets Convexly had read in full from the Polygon settlement record by 2026-08-17, most of them research candidates chosen because a shorter read had put them ahead of their entry prices, 143 came back not separable from chance, 58 behind their entry prices, and 159 ahead of their entry prices on their own record. Another 100 attempted full reads did not complete and are not counted; this is a count of the reads we have done, not a rate for Polymarket wallets.
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The walk is queued for the next run of our chain reader, which starts every eight hours; expect the read within about a day.
Recent observed trades
Sign in to see the fills our collectors recorded for this wallet: side, size, price, and time for each one. Coverage is the markets our collectors follow, so this record can be empty.
A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.
Sample quality: DevelopingCalibration is still noisy below 30 scored resolved positions. Use the pillars as clues, not conclusions.
Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.
Data updated 2026-09-07
Read coverage
Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (785 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.
Frozen research snapshot
Dated reference data, separate from the current wallet read.
On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 61 resolved positions with a win rate of 50.8% and a realized edge over entry prices of +0.0 probability points, 95% CI [-11.3, +10.6] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval includes zero, so on that snapshot the edge is not separable from chance.
Did not clear the Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 on that snapshot (178 of 3871 wallets cleared). That means no corrected evidence of skill on the snapshot, which is not the same as evidence of no skill. In-sample separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill.
The frozen snapshot does not carry the single-event concentration screen that the live analyzer applies; the realized-edge read above (when present) is the concentration-screened read.
Descriptive comparison with the published reference cohort.
In the published 50-wallet cohort artifact (rescored 2026-09-11) with an Edge Score of 76.3 across 27 scored resolved positions. Edge Score is a descriptive behavioral composite of the past resolved record (calibration, conviction, discipline), pending out-of-sample forward-skill validation. It is not a forecast and not a skill verdict.
This board is a closed set of wallet addresses selected once on 2026-04-19, not a screen over Polymarket. No wallet has entered since. The original screen was: Polymarket wallets with >=5 resolved positions and >=$5k realized PnL (2026-04-15 snapshot). Ranked by Edge Score V3b. Membership was conditioned partly on having made money, which puts profit on the causal path into the pool, so no count taken over these rows describes Polymarket wallets generally.
Edge Score is a descriptive behavioral composite of the past record; the realized-edge read above is the outcome measure with its interval. They answer different questions and can point in different directions without contradiction.
Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0811. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.
Biggest event: Democratic Nominee 2024 (77.9% of net result; above 100% when other events lost)
Category breakdown
Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.
Category
Resolved
Win rate
Brier
Baseline Brier
politics
27
44.4%
0.166
0.247
Resolved-position history by entry price
Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.
Entry-price band
Resolved
Realized win rate
Band implied
0-10%
4
0.0%
5.0%
10-20%
3
33.3%
15.0%
20-30%
2
0.0%
25.0%
30-40%
3
33.3%
35.0%
40-50%
1
0.0%
45.0%
50-60%
5
80.0%
55.0%
60-70%
4
50.0%
65.0%
70-80%
1
0.0%
75.0%
80-90%
3
100.0%
85.0%
90-100%
1
100.0%
95.0%
Frequently asked questions
What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xbf49...5608?
As of 2026-09-07, Convexly's cached read shows 27 resolved positions, 12 wins and 15 losses (win rate 44.4%). Realized edge over entry prices: -1.7 probability points, 95% CI [-20.3, +13.8] (BCa bootstrap, n = 27 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xbf49...5608 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Realized edge -1.7 probability points across 27 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-20.3, +13.8]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.
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