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Polymarket wallet record

0xb589...33d4

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One wallet, one reconciled read, $19. Ask for a refund within 14 days for any reason, and if the walk cannot finish you are refunded in full and we deliver nothing.

Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Read coverage

Coverage for this read has not been established; it is treated as a partial, windowed read.

Frozen research snapshot

Dated reference data, separate from the current wallet read.

On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 459 resolved positions with a win rate of 38.6% and a realized edge over entry prices of +13.2 probability points, 95% CI [+9.1, +17.4] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval clears zero on the positive side.

One of 178 of 3871 wallets (each with at least 30 resolved positions on that snapshot) that cleared a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 for positive realized edge over entry prices; expected false discoveries among the cleared set are at most 17.8. This is in-sample skill-vs-luck separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill.

The frozen snapshot does not carry the single-event concentration screen that the live analyzer applies; the realized-edge read above (when present) is the concentration-screened read.

Snapshot 2026-04-25 · screen computed 2026-06-01 · registry sha256 5478f7c47b8296b2... · frozen methodology hash 39f07abfcabb84e9...

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xb589...33d4?
On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 459 resolved positions with a win rate of 38.6% and a realized edge over entry prices of +13.2 probability points, 95% CI [+9.1, +17.4] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval clears zero on the positive side. These are descriptive statistics of a frozen past snapshot, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xb589...33d4 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
One of 178 of 3871 wallets (each with at least 30 resolved positions on that snapshot) that cleared a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 for positive realized edge over entry prices; expected false discoveries among the cleared set are at most 17.8. This is in-sample skill-vs-luck separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill. Not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain