On the 296 settled positions the public API shows (161 independent events), the realized edge is +5.3 pp (95% CI [+1.6, +10.2]): Ahead of entry prices in the public window. This window omits redeemed positions, and settled winners are the rows most likely missing, so it describes the window and not the record. A record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read.
Edge Score 2 / 100 · descriptive composite of the recent-trade window, not a complete read of this record and not a skill read.
One wallet, one reconciled read, $19. Ask for a refund within 14 days for any reason, and if the walk cannot finish you are refunded in full and we deliver nothing.
Recent observed trades
Sign in to see the fills our collectors recorded for this wallet: side, size, price, and time for each one. Coverage is the markets our collectors follow, so this record can be empty.
A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.
Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.
Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.
Data updated 2026-09-05
Read coverage
Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (1,016 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.
Frozen research snapshot
Dated reference data, separate from the current wallet read.
On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 112 resolved positions with a win rate of 68.8% and a realized edge over entry prices of +8.6 probability points, 95% CI [+1.4, +14.7] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval clears zero on the positive side.
Did not clear the Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 on that snapshot (178 of 3871 wallets cleared). That means no corrected evidence of skill on the snapshot, which is not the same as evidence of no skill. In-sample separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill.
The frozen snapshot does not carry the single-event concentration screen that the live analyzer applies; the realized-edge read above (when present) is the concentration-screened read.
Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.1034. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.
Biggest event: Who will be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? (19.4% of net result; above 100% when other events lost)
Category breakdown
Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.
Category
Resolved
Win rate
Brier
Baseline Brier
politics
139
76.3%
0.102
0.181
other
64
81.3%
0.057
0.152
sports
28
67.9%
0.152
0.218
entertainment
23
73.9%
0.062
0.193
science
21
85.7%
0.046
0.122
crypto
17
17.6%
0.114
0.145
economics
4
100.0%
0.000
0.000
Resolved-position history by entry price
Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.
Entry-price band
Resolved
Realized win rate
Band implied
0-10%
14
0.0%
5.0%
10-20%
15
0.0%
15.0%
20-30%
14
14.3%
25.0%
30-40%
16
25.0%
35.0%
40-50%
24
58.3%
45.0%
50-60%
26
69.2%
55.0%
60-70%
9
88.9%
65.0%
70-80%
34
94.1%
75.0%
80-90%
43
97.7%
85.0%
90-100%
101
98.0%
95.0%
Frequently asked questions
What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xb436...bb3c?
As of 2026-09-05, Convexly's cached read shows 296 resolved positions, 219 wins and 77 losses (win rate 74.0%). Realized edge over entry prices: +5.3 probability points, 95% CI [+1.6, +10.2] (BCa bootstrap, n = 296 scored positions). The interval is shown for transparency. It comes from a read that is not proved complete, so it does not carry the verdict. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xb436...bb3c skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
No skill read is issued for this wallet from the cached read: its figures come from the public recent-trade window, which omits redeemed positions and is not the wallet's whole resolved record, and a record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read. On that window, realized edge over entry prices is +5.3 probability points, 95% CI [+1.6, +10.2] (BCa bootstrap, n = 296 scored positions in 161 independent events). Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.
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