Within noise of zero in the public window

+0.9 pp

On the 188 settled positions the public API shows (164 independent events), the realized edge is +0.9 pp (95% CI [-3.1, +4.3]): Within noise of zero in the public window. This window omits redeemed positions, and settled winners are the rows most likely missing, so it describes the window and not the record. A record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read.

Edge Score 73 / 100 · descriptive composite of the recent-trade window, not a complete read of this record and not a skill read.

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Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-09-07

Read coverage

Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (1,664 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

188

Wins / losses

159 / 29

Win rate

84.6%

Brier

0.086

Baseline Brier

0.131

First position

2026-05-18

Fills analyzed

1,664

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0449. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

Category	Resolved	Win rate	Brier	Baseline Brier
crypto	134	86.6%	0.069	0.116
sports	25	68.0%	0.211	0.218
other	16	87.5%	0.068	0.109
politics	9	100.0%	0.051	0.000
science	3	66.7%	0.000	0.222

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price band	Resolved	Realized win rate	Band implied
0-10%	3	0.0%	5.0%
10-20%	3	33.3%	15.0%
20-30%	2	0.0%	25.0%
30-40%	1	0.0%	35.0%
40-50%	3	66.7%	45.0%
50-60%	11	45.5%	55.0%
60-70%	9	66.7%	65.0%
70-80%	24	79.2%	75.0%
80-90%	24	83.3%	85.0%
90-100%	108	98.2%	95.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xa8fc...6462?: As of 2026-09-07, Convexly's cached read shows 188 resolved positions, 159 wins and 29 losses (win rate 84.6%). Realized edge over entry prices: +0.9 probability points, 95% CI [-3.1, +4.3] (BCa bootstrap, n = 188 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xa8fc...6462 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?: No skill read is issued for this wallet from the cached read: its figures come from the public recent-trade window, which omits redeemed positions and is not the wallet's whole resolved record, and a record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read. On that window, realized edge over entry prices is +0.9 probability points, 95% CI [-3.1, +4.3] (BCa bootstrap, n = 188 scored positions in 164 independent events). Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?: No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain