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Convexly

Polymarket wallet record

Window read, not a record verdict

Behind entry prices in the public window

-6.0 pp

On the 943 settled positions the public API shows (584 independent events), the realized edge is -6.0 pp (95% CI [-8.4, -3.9]): Behind entry prices in the public window. This window omits redeemed positions, and settled winners are the rows most likely missing, which runs against this wallet, so the record could read better than this window does. A record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read.

Edge Score 1 / 100 · descriptive composite of the recent-trade window, not a complete read of this record and not a skill read.

Wallet0xa299...ac77PolymarketCheck available historyIs this your wallet? Verify ownership

Buy a walk of your own record. We read this address's settled positions from the Polygon chain and deliver the result on the wallet's own page, as the same read a subscriber's set gets, walked to a stated Polygon block. It reads the record; it does not promise skill.

Checking someone else's wallet? The same walk applies. What full reads have returned so far:

Of the 360 Polymarket wallets Convexly had read in full from the Polygon settlement record by 2026-08-17, most of them research candidates chosen because a shorter read had put them ahead of their entry prices, 143 came back not separable from chance, 58 behind their entry prices, and 159 ahead of their entry prices on their own record. Another 100 attempted full reads did not complete and are not counted; this is a count of the reads we have done, not a rate for Polymarket wallets.

One wallet, one reconciled read, $19. Ask for a refund within 14 days for any reason, and if the walk cannot finish you are refunded in full and we deliver nothing.

The walk is queued for the next run of our chain reader, which starts every eight hours; expect the read within about a day.

Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-09-11

Read coverage

Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (2,285 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

943

Wins / losses

330 / 613

Win rate

35.0%

Brier

0.171

Baseline Brier

0.228

First position

2026-04-15

Fills analyzed

2,285

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0561. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Canada vs. Morocco

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

CategoryResolvedWin rateBrierBaseline Brier
sports94335.0%0.1710.228

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price bandResolvedRealized win rateBand implied
0-10%424.8%5.0%
10-20%1236.5%15.0%
20-30%16514.5%25.0%
30-40%16320.9%35.0%
40-50%12941.9%45.0%
50-60%12351.2%55.0%
60-70%9570.5%65.0%
70-80%7071.4%75.0%
80-90%3183.9%85.0%
90-100%2100.0%95.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xa299...ac77?
As of 2026-09-11, Convexly's cached read shows 943 resolved positions, 330 wins and 613 losses (win rate 35.0%). Realized edge over entry prices: -6.0 probability points, 95% CI [-8.4, -3.9] (BCa bootstrap, n = 943 scored positions). The interval is shown for transparency. It comes from a read that is not proved complete, so it does not carry the verdict. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xa299...ac77 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
No skill read is issued for this wallet from the cached read: its figures come from the public recent-trade window, which omits redeemed positions and is not the wallet's whole resolved record, and a record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read. On that window, realized edge over entry prices is -6.0 probability points, 95% CI [-8.4, -3.9] (BCa bootstrap, n = 943 scored positions in 584 independent events). Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain