On the 145 settled positions the public API shows (65 independent events), the realized edge is +8.8 pp (95% CI [+5.9, +13.3]): Ahead of entry prices in the public window. This window omits redeemed positions, and settled winners are the rows most likely missing, so it describes the window and not the record. A record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read.
Edge Score 7 / 100 · descriptive composite of the recent-trade window, not a complete read of this record and not a skill read.
Buy a walk of your own record. We read this address's settled positions from the Polygon chain and deliver the result on the wallet's own page, as the same read a subscriber's set gets, walked to a stated Polygon block. It reads the record; it does not promise skill.
Checking someone else's wallet? The same walk applies. What full reads have returned so far:
Of the 360 Polymarket wallets Convexly had read in full from the Polygon settlement record by 2026-08-17, most of them research candidates chosen because a shorter read had put them ahead of their entry prices, 143 came back not separable from chance, 58 behind their entry prices, and 159 ahead of their entry prices on their own record. Another 100 attempted full reads did not complete and are not counted; this is a count of the reads we have done, not a rate for Polymarket wallets.
One wallet, one reconciled read, $19. Ask for a refund within 14 days for any reason, and if the walk cannot finish you are refunded in full and we deliver nothing.
The walk is queued for the next run of our chain reader, which starts every eight hours; expect the read within about a day.
Recent observed trades
Sign in to see the fills our collectors recorded for this wallet: side, size, price, and time for each one. Coverage is the markets our collectors follow, so this record can be empty.
A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.
Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.
Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.
Coverage for this read has not been established; it is treated as a partial, windowed read.
Frozen research snapshot
Dated reference data, separate from the current wallet read.
On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 79 resolved positions with a win rate of 53.2% and a realized edge over entry prices of +10.2 probability points, 95% CI [+0.6, +19.2] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval clears zero on the positive side.
One of 178 of 3871 wallets (each with at least 30 resolved positions on that snapshot) that cleared a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 for positive realized edge over entry prices; expected false discoveries among the cleared set are at most 17.8. This is in-sample skill-vs-luck separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill.
The frozen snapshot does not carry the single-event concentration screen that the live analyzer applies; the realized-edge read above (when present) is the concentration-screened read.
Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.1617. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.
Biggest event: Backpack FDV above ___ one day after launch? (32.5% of net result; above 100% when other events lost)
Category breakdown
Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.
Category
Resolved
Win rate
Brier
Baseline Brier
crypto
39
43.6%
0.051
0.246
sports
39
51.3%
0.065
0.250
politics
27
51.8%
0.157
0.250
other
25
52.0%
0.073
0.250
entertainment
7
57.1%
0.315
0.245
science
6
50.0%
0.000
0.250
Resolved-position history by entry price
Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.
Entry-price band
Resolved
Realized win rate
Band implied
50-60%
10
100.0%
55.0%
60-70%
8
62.5%
65.0%
70-80%
9
100.0%
75.0%
80-90%
6
100.0%
85.0%
90-100%
32
96.9%
95.0%
Frequently asked questions
What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x82cf...0998?
As of 2026-07-09 (64 days ago), Convexly's cached read shows 145 resolved positions, 72 wins and 73 losses (win rate 49.7%). Realized edge over entry prices: +8.8 probability points, 95% CI [+5.9, +13.3] (BCa bootstrap, n = 145 scored positions). The interval is shown for transparency. It comes from a read that is not proved complete, so it does not carry the verdict. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x82cf...0998 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
No skill read is issued for this wallet from the cached read: its figures come from the public recent-trade window, which omits redeemed positions and is not the wallet's whole resolved record, and a record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read. On that window, realized edge over entry prices is +8.8 probability points, 95% CI [+5.9, +13.3] (BCa bootstrap, n = 145 scored positions in 65 independent events). Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.
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