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Polymarket wallet record

Realized-edge read

No complete read yet; the record is not scored

realized edge +21.2 pp, 95% CI [+18.6, +23.7], n=1097

The interval is shown for transparency. It comes from a read that is not proved complete, so it does not carry the verdict.

Realized edge +21.2 probability points across 1097 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [+18.6, +23.7]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions, not the wallet's whole resolved record; the record has not been read in full, so no skill read is issued on them. A Convexly read of the public record.

Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.

Wallet0x8230...5121PolymarketCheck available historyIs this your wallet? Verify ownership

What does this wallet’s settled record show?

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When the free check leaves questions about the settled record, get a dated read of this wallet’s settled positions reconciled against Polygon. View it on the wallet’s page.

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Historical diagnostics from available public data, with the coverage limits shown.
One-time reconciled read
A separate chain-based record of settled positions, with its block and date. Its coverage may differ from the free check.

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The result may leave your assessment unchanged or remain inconclusive. It does not prove skill, predict future results or include ongoing monitoring.

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Coverage, method and refund terms

The result covers settled positions that can be reconciled to the chain, as of a stated block. Unresolved positions and later trades are outside that read. A record receipt is available only while the underlying read meets its issuance checks.

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What previous full reads found

Of the 360 Polymarket wallets Convexly had read in full from the Polygon settlement record by 2026-08-17, most of them research candidates chosen because a shorter read had put them ahead of their entry prices, 143 came back not separable from chance, 58 behind their entry prices, and 159 ahead of their entry prices on their own record. Another 100 attempted full reads did not complete and are not counted; this is a count of the reads we have done, not a rate for Polymarket wallets.

Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

read from 2026-09-30, 26 days ago; run a fresh analysis for a current read

Read coverage

Covers the most recent 3,500 trades the public API returns for this wallet. Older history beyond that window is not included in this read.

Frozen research snapshot

Dated reference data, separate from the current wallet read.

On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 264 resolved positions with a win rate of 35.6% and a realized edge over entry prices of +17.9 probability points, 95% CI [+12.6, +23.5] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval clears zero on the positive side.

One of 178 of 3871 wallets (each with at least 30 resolved positions on that snapshot) that cleared a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 for positive realized edge over entry prices; expected false discoveries among the cleared set are at most 17.8. This is in-sample skill-vs-luck separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill.

The frozen snapshot does not carry the single-event concentration screen that the live analyzer applies; the realized-edge read above (when present) is the concentration-screened read.

Snapshot 2026-04-25 · screen computed 2026-06-01 · registry sha256 5478f7c47b8296b2... · frozen methodology hash 39f07abfcabb84e9...

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

1,097

Wins / losses

407 / 690

Win rate

37.1%

Brier

0.234

Baseline Brier

0.233

Biggest-event share

10.4%

of net result; above 100% when other events lost

First position

2026-03-22

Fills analyzed

3,500

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): -0.0009. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille (10.4% of net result; above 100% when other events lost)

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

CategoryResolvedWin rateBrierBaseline Brier
sports109637.0%0.2340.233

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price bandResolvedRealized win rateBand implied
0-10%55021.6%5.0%
10-20%28134.2%15.0%
20-30%9457.5%25.0%
30-40%4774.5%35.0%
40-50%3363.6%45.0%
50-60%3580.0%55.0%
60-70%3096.7%65.0%
70-80%2495.8%75.0%
80-90%366.7%85.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x8230...5121?
As of 2026-09-30 (26 days ago), Convexly's cached read shows 1097 resolved positions, 407 wins and 690 losses (win rate 37.1%). Realized edge over entry prices: +21.2 probability points, 95% CI [+18.6, +23.7] (BCa bootstrap, n = 1097 scored positions). The interval is shown for transparency. It comes from a read that is not proved complete, so it does not carry the verdict. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x8230...5121 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Realized edge +21.2 probability points across 1097 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [+18.6, +23.7]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions, not the wallet's whole resolved record; the record has not been read in full, so no skill read is issued on them. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain