What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x8150...94ff?

As of 2026-08-21, Convexly's cached read shows 189 resolved positions, 138 wins and 51 losses (win rate 73.0%). Realized edge over entry prices: +3.8 probability points, 95% CI [-1.9, +9.2] (BCa bootstrap, n = 189 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.

Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?

No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

Polymarket wallet record

Realized-edge read

No complete read yet; the record is not scored

-200+40

realized edge +3.8 pp, 95% CI [-1.9, +9.2], n=189

Realized edge +3.8 probability points across 189 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-1.9, +9.2]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.

Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.

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Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-08-21

Read coverage

Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (310 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

189

Wins / losses

138 / 51

Win rate

73.0%

Brier

0.167

Baseline Brier

0.197

Biggest-event share

11.8%

First position

2026-08-17

Fills analyzed

310

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0301. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET (11.8% of the net result; shares above 100% mean the remaining events netted negative)

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

Category	Resolved	Win rate	Brier	Baseline Brier
crypto	189	73.0%	0.167	0.197

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price band	Resolved	Realized win rate	Band implied
0-10%	1	0.0%	5.0%
10-20%	2	0.0%	15.0%
20-30%	3	33.3%	25.0%
30-40%	3	33.3%	35.0%
40-50%	14	50.0%	45.0%
50-60%	14	42.9%	55.0%
60-70%	49	71.4%	65.0%
70-80%	56	82.1%	75.0%
80-90%	35	85.7%	85.0%
90-100%	12	100.0%	95.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x8150...94ff?: As of 2026-08-21, Convexly's cached read shows 189 resolved positions, 138 wins and 51 losses (win rate 73.0%). Realized edge over entry prices: +3.8 probability points, 95% CI [-1.9, +9.2] (BCa bootstrap, n = 189 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x8150...94ff skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?: Realized edge +3.8 probability points across 189 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-1.9, +9.2]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?: No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain