What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x74cb...1688?

As of 2026-08-20, Convexly's cached read shows 137 resolved positions, 90 wins and 47 losses (win rate 65.7%). Realized edge over entry prices: +26.6 probability points, 95% CI [+19.5, +33.3] (BCa bootstrap, n = 137 scored positions). The interval is shown for transparency. It comes from a read that is not proved complete, so it does not carry the verdict. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.

Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?

No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

Polymarket wallet record

Realized-edge read

No complete read yet; the record is not scored

-200+40

realized edge +26.6 pp, 95% CI [+19.5, +33.3], n=137

The interval is shown for transparency. It comes from a read that is not proved complete, so it does not carry the verdict.

Realized edge +26.6 probability points across 137 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [+19.5, +33.3]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.

Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.

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Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-08-20

Read coverage

Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (1,055 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

137

Wins / losses

90 / 47

Win rate

65.7%

Brier

0.237

Baseline Brier

0.225

Biggest-event share

5.9%

First position

2026-06-12

Fills analyzed

1,055

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): -0.0116. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Czechia vs. Mexico - More Markets (5.9% of the net result; shares above 100% mean the remaining events netted negative)

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

Category	Resolved	Win rate	Brier	Baseline Brier
sports	137	65.7%	0.237	0.225

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price band	Resolved	Realized win rate	Band implied
0-10%	9	0.0%	5.0%
10-20%	21	28.6%	15.0%
20-30%	25	72.0%	25.0%
30-40%	20	55.0%	35.0%
40-50%	21	81.0%	45.0%
50-60%	14	85.7%	55.0%
60-70%	8	87.5%	65.0%
70-80%	13	100.0%	75.0%
80-90%	6	100.0%	85.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x74cb...1688?: As of 2026-08-20, Convexly's cached read shows 137 resolved positions, 90 wins and 47 losses (win rate 65.7%). Realized edge over entry prices: +26.6 probability points, 95% CI [+19.5, +33.3] (BCa bootstrap, n = 137 scored positions). The interval is shown for transparency. It comes from a read that is not proved complete, so it does not carry the verdict. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x74cb...1688 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?: Realized edge +26.6 probability points across 137 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [+19.5, +33.3]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?: No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain