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Polymarket wallet record

Inside the luck range on the resolved record: the 95% interval includes zero, so the edge is not separable from chance.

Realized edge per priced position: -0.8pp (95% CI [-1.6pp, +0.0pp], n=4051 of 4051 resolved)

Walked to Polygon block 94,076,439 on 2026-09-19 12:12 UTC.

Provably complete record

Complete for this on-chain address as of 2026-09-19, not any linked accounts.

Wallet0x6a72...33eePolymarketCheck available historyIs this your wallet? Verify ownership

On-chain-reconciled full-history read

provably complete as of 2026-09-19

This read walks the wallet's entire on-chain record via the venue's settlement contracts rather than the public API window, and its completeness is machine-checkable.

Currentas of 2026-09-19 UTCnext refresh due 2026-10-19 UTC

Read is current as of 2026-09-19 UTC, inside the 30-day refresh cadence.

Walked to Polygon block 94,076,439 on 2026-09-19 12:12 UTC.

Markets resolved to completion
4,051
Priced at own entry fills
4,051
Realized edge per priced position
-0.8pp (95% CI [-1.6pp, +0.0pp], n=4051 of 4051 resolved)

95% interval is the event-clustered BCa bootstrap on the priced subset.

Distinct events
2,605
Largest event share
0.05%
Complete-set pairs
71.4%

Style label, never a gate: the share of positions holding both outcome legs of the same market to resolution.

Realized edge excluding complete-set pairs
+5.6pp (95% CI [+2.9pp, +8.2pp], n=1159)

The single-leg slice of the same record, same method.

Verdict

Inside the luck range on the resolved record: the 95% interval includes zero, so the edge is not separable from chance.

Read coverage

Reconciled against the on-chain record for this address: the complete set of positions this address held to resolution (4,051). Scope is this on-chain address, not any linked accounts. Reconciled as of 2026-09-19 UTC; a point-in-time snapshot that reverts to a windowed read on this address's next trade.

Descriptive read of the past resolved record. Not a forecast, not advice. Backward-looking; the read can change as open positions resolve.

The windowed read below covers only the recent public-API window; the reconciled read above covers the full record.

Recent observed trades

Sign in to see the fills our collectors recorded for this wallet: side, size, price, and time for each one. Coverage is the markets our collectors follow, so this record can be empty.

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: UsableEnough scored resolved positions for a directional read; category-level splits may still be thin.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-09-17

Read coverage

Covers the most recent 3,500 trades the public API returns for this wallet. Older history beyond that window is not included in this read.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

51

Wins / losses

28 / 23

Win rate

54.9%

Brier

0.195

Baseline Brier

0.248

First position

2026-05-23

Fills analyzed

3,500

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0524. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

CategoryResolvedWin rateBrierBaseline Brier
sports5154.9%0.1950.248

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price bandResolvedRealized win rateBand implied
20-30%333.3%25.0%
30-40%425.0%35.0%
40-50%1010.0%45.0%
50-60%757.1%55.0%
60-70%875.0%65.0%
70-80%1283.3%75.0%
80-90%560.0%85.0%
90-100%2100.0%95.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x6a72...33ee?
As of 2026-09-17, Convexly's cached read shows 51 resolved positions, 28 wins and 23 losses (win rate 54.9%). Realized edge over entry prices: -5.0 probability points, 95% CI [-15.0, +5.6] (BCa bootstrap, n = 51 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x6a72...33ee skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Realized edge -5.0 probability points across 51 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-15.0, +5.6]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain