What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x64c4...1018?

As of 2026-08-27, Convexly's cached read shows 649 resolved positions, 346 wins and 303 losses (win rate 53.3%). Realized edge over entry prices: +0.4 probability points, 95% CI [-3.7, +4.5] (BCa bootstrap, n = 649 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.

Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?

No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

Polymarket wallet record

Realized-edge read

No complete read yet; the record is not scored

-200+40

realized edge +0.4 pp, 95% CI [-3.7, +4.5], n=649

Realized edge +0.4 probability points across 649 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-3.7, +4.5]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.

Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.

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Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-08-27

Read coverage

Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (3,148 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

649

Wins / losses

346 / 303

Win rate

53.3%

Brier

0.217

Baseline Brier

0.249

Biggest-event share

51.9%

First position

2026-05-08

Fills analyzed

3,148

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0314. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season (51.9% of the net result; shares above 100% mean the remaining events netted negative)

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

Category	Resolved	Win rate	Brier	Baseline Brier
sports	646	53.3%	0.216	0.249
science	3	66.7%	0.493	0.222

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price band	Resolved	Realized win rate	Band implied
0-10%	6	0.0%	5.0%
10-20%	25	24.0%	15.0%
20-30%	37	27.0%	25.0%
30-40%	66	36.4%	35.0%
40-50%	103	44.7%	45.0%
50-60%	235	54.5%	55.0%
60-70%	75	57.3%	65.0%
70-80%	42	81.0%	75.0%
80-90%	25	80.0%	85.0%
90-100%	35	100.0%	95.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x64c4...1018?: As of 2026-08-27, Convexly's cached read shows 649 resolved positions, 346 wins and 303 losses (win rate 53.3%). Realized edge over entry prices: +0.4 probability points, 95% CI [-3.7, +4.5] (BCa bootstrap, n = 649 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x64c4...1018 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?: Realized edge +0.4 probability points across 649 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-3.7, +4.5]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?: No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain