What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x5f6f...1284?

As of 2026-07-29, Convexly's cached read shows 117 resolved positions, 48 wins and 69 losses (win rate 41.0%). Realized edge over entry prices: -9.1 probability points, 95% CI [-17.2, -0.7] (BCa bootstrap, n = 117 scored positions). The interval is shown for transparency. It comes from a read that is not proved complete, so it does not carry the verdict. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.

Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?

No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

Polymarket wallet record

Realized-edge read

No complete read yet; the record is not scored

-200+40

realized edge -9.1 pp, 95% CI [-17.2, -0.7], n=117

The interval is shown for transparency. It comes from a read that is not proved complete, so it does not carry the verdict.

Realized edge -9.1 probability points across 117 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-17.2, -0.7]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.

Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.

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Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-07-29 Run a fresh analysis

Read coverage

Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (765 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

117

Wins / losses

48 / 69

Win rate

41.0%

Brier

0.218

Baseline Brier

0.242

First position

2026-06-05

Fills analyzed

765

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0240. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Highest temperature in Paris on June 24?

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

Category	Resolved	Win rate	Brier	Baseline Brier
sports	62	25.8%	0.226	0.192
crypto	53	58.5%	0.214	0.243

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price band	Resolved	Realized win rate	Band implied
0-10%	5	20.0%	5.0%
10-20%	6	16.7%	15.0%
20-30%	12	16.7%	25.0%
30-40%	14	28.6%	35.0%
40-50%	17	23.5%	45.0%
50-60%	19	57.9%	55.0%
60-70%	16	43.8%	65.0%
70-80%	18	61.1%	75.0%
80-90%	10	70.0%	85.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x5f6f...1284?: As of 2026-07-29, Convexly's cached read shows 117 resolved positions, 48 wins and 69 losses (win rate 41.0%). Realized edge over entry prices: -9.1 probability points, 95% CI [-17.2, -0.7] (BCa bootstrap, n = 117 scored positions). The interval is shown for transparency. It comes from a read that is not proved complete, so it does not carry the verdict. These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x5f6f...1284 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?: Realized edge -9.1 probability points across 117 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-17.2, -0.7]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?: No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain