Skip to content
Convexly

Polymarket wallet record

Realized-edge read

No complete read yet; the record is not scored

realized edge -0.2 pp, 95% CI [-1.3, +1.0], n=2664

Realized edge -0.2 probability points across 2664 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-1.3, +1.0]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.

Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.

Wallet0x5c79...ea52PolymarketCheck available historyIs this your wallet? Verify ownership

One wallet, one reconciled read, $19. Ask for a refund within 14 days for any reason, and if the walk cannot finish you are refunded in full and we deliver nothing.

Recent observed trades

Sign in to see the fills our collectors recorded for this wallet: side, size, price, and time for each one. Coverage is the markets our collectors follow, so this record can be empty.

Create a free accountSign in

Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-09-05

Read coverage

Covers the most recent 3,500 trades the public API returns for this wallet. Older history beyond that window is not included in this read.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

2,664

Wins / losses

1739 / 925

Win rate

65.3%

Brier

0.177

Baseline Brier

0.227

First position

2026-05-27

Fills analyzed

3,500

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0501. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

CategoryResolvedWin rateBrierBaseline Brier
crypto211766.1%0.1680.224
sports54662.1%0.2090.235

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price bandResolvedRealized win rateBand implied
0-10%166.3%5.0%
10-20%5612.5%15.0%
20-30%2821.4%25.0%
30-40%4731.9%35.0%
40-50%99748.0%45.0%
50-60%26357.0%55.0%
60-70%16664.5%65.0%
70-80%19676.0%75.0%
80-90%19683.7%85.0%
90-100%69994.6%95.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x5c79...ea52?
As of 2026-09-05, Convexly's cached read shows 2664 resolved positions, 1739 wins and 925 losses (win rate 65.3%). Realized edge over entry prices: -0.2 probability points, 95% CI [-1.3, +1.0] (BCa bootstrap, n = 2664 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x5c79...ea52 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Realized edge -0.2 probability points across 2664 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-1.3, +1.0]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

Share this record: copy https://www.convexly.app/w/0x5c79d0e9f24f5f0f4225d99b654a74be7d2cea52. X / Discord / Slack render the per-wallet card preview.

Share record on XDownload share card

How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain

0x5c79...ea52 Polymarket wallet record | Convexly