Within noise of zero in the public window

Headline statistics

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0209. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: England vs. Croatia (4388.9% of net result; above 100% when other events lost)

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x5b4e...0232?

As of 2026-07-09 (62 days ago), Convexly's cached read shows 30 resolved positions, 17 wins and 13 losses (win rate 56.7%). Realized edge over entry prices: +9.1 probability points, 95% CI [-6.2, +23.7] (BCa bootstrap, n = 30 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.

Is wallet 0x5b4e...0232 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?

No skill read is issued for this wallet from the cached read: its figures come from the public recent-trade window, which omits redeemed positions and is not the wallet's whole resolved record, and a record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read. On that window, realized edge over entry prices is +9.1 probability points, 95% CI [-6.2, +23.7] (BCa bootstrap, n = 30 scored positions in 26 independent events). Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.

Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?

No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.