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Convexly

Polymarket wallet record

Window read, not a record verdict

Within noise of zero in the public window

+0.5 pp

On the 254 settled positions the public API shows (156 independent events), the realized edge is +0.5 pp (95% CI [-1.8, +3.1]): Within noise of zero in the public window. This window omits redeemed positions, and settled winners are the rows most likely missing, so it describes the window and not the record. A record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read.

Edge Score 8 / 100 · descriptive composite of the recent-trade window, not a complete read of this record and not a skill read.

Wallet0x5a0e...691dPolymarketCheck available historyIs this your wallet? Verify ownership

Buy a walk of your own record. We read this address's settled positions from the Polygon chain and deliver the result on the wallet's own page, as the same read a subscriber's set gets, walked to a stated Polygon block. It reads the record; it does not promise skill.

Checking someone else's wallet? The same walk applies. What full reads have returned so far:

Of the 360 Polymarket wallets Convexly had read in full from the Polygon settlement record by 2026-08-17, most of them research candidates chosen because a shorter read had put them ahead of their entry prices, 143 came back not separable from chance, 58 behind their entry prices, and 159 ahead of their entry prices on their own record. Another 100 attempted full reads did not complete and are not counted; this is a count of the reads we have done, not a rate for Polymarket wallets.

One wallet, one reconciled read, $19. Ask for a refund within 14 days for any reason, and if the walk cannot finish you are refunded in full and we deliver nothing.

The walk is queued for the next run of our chain reader, which starts every eight hours; expect the read within about a day.

Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

read from 2026-07-09, 67 days ago; run a fresh analysis for a current read

Read coverage

Coverage for this read has not been established; it is treated as a partial, windowed read.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

254

Wins / losses

106 / 148

Win rate

41.7%

Brier

0.100

Baseline Brier

0.243

First position

2025-11-08

Fills analyzed

1,251

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.1432. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Highest grossing movie in 2025?

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

CategoryResolvedWin rateBrierBaseline Brier
crypto15741.4%0.1220.243
sports4233.3%0.0680.222
other3652.8%0.0880.249
economics850.0%0.0030.250
entertainment540.0%0.0000.240
politics450.0%0.0590.250

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price bandResolvedRealized win rateBand implied
50-60%616.7%55.0%
60-70%40.0%65.0%
70-80%7100.0%75.0%
80-90%1485.7%85.0%
90-100%6395.2%95.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x5a0e...691d?
As of 2026-07-09 (67 days ago), Convexly's cached read shows 254 resolved positions, 106 wins and 148 losses (win rate 41.7%). Realized edge over entry prices: +0.5 probability points, 95% CI [-1.8, +3.1] (BCa bootstrap, n = 254 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x5a0e...691d skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
No skill read is issued for this wallet from the cached read: its figures come from the public recent-trade window, which omits redeemed positions and is not the wallet's whole resolved record, and a record verdict needs the full on-chain reconciled read. On that window, realized edge over entry prices is +0.5 probability points, 95% CI [-1.8, +3.1] (BCa bootstrap, n = 254 scored positions in 156 independent events). Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain