What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x58a9...0214?

As of 2026-08-22, Convexly's cached read shows 210 resolved positions, 124 wins and 86 losses (win rate 59.1%). Realized edge over entry prices: -0.2 probability points, 95% CI [-6.2, +5.3] (BCa bootstrap, n = 210 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.

Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?

No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

Polymarket wallet record

Realized-edge read

No complete read yet; the record is not scored

-200+40

realized edge -0.2 pp, 95% CI [-6.2, +5.3], n=210

Realized edge -0.2 probability points across 210 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-6.2, +5.3]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.

Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.

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Recent observed trades

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Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.

Sample quality: StrongLarge scored resolved sample. The rating is still historical and cross-sectional, but the noise floor is lower.

Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Data updated 2026-08-22

Read coverage

Covers this wallet's public-API trade record (429 trades): the trade feed is read to its end. It is not reconciled against the on-chain record, so a position held to resolution without a matching public trade may not be included.

Headline statistics

Resolved positions

210

Wins / losses

124 / 86

Win rate

59.1%

Brier

0.224

Baseline Brier

0.242

First position

2026-03-26

Fills analyzed

429

Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0175. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.

Biggest event: Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals

Category breakdown

Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.

Category	Resolved	Win rate	Brier	Baseline Brier
sports	127	55.9%	0.238	0.246
crypto	82	63.4%	0.202	0.232

Resolved-position history by entry price

Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.

Entry-price band	Resolved	Realized win rate	Band implied
0-10%	2	0.0%	5.0%
10-20%	2	50.0%	15.0%
20-30%	1	0.0%	25.0%
30-40%	7	71.4%	35.0%
40-50%	29	37.9%	45.0%
50-60%	85	56.5%	55.0%
60-70%	43	60.5%	65.0%
70-80%	22	72.7%	75.0%
80-90%	13	84.6%	85.0%
90-100%	6	100.0%	95.0%

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x58a9...0214?: As of 2026-08-22, Convexly's cached read shows 210 resolved positions, 124 wins and 86 losses (win rate 59.1%). Realized edge over entry prices: -0.2 probability points, 95% CI [-6.2, +5.3] (BCa bootstrap, n = 210 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x58a9...0214 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?: Realized edge -0.2 probability points across 210 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-6.2, +5.3]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?: No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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How this read was produced

V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain