Polymarket wallet record

0x41fe...55ec

PolymarketLive analyzer

Methodology: V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain

Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public on-chain Polymarket record. The statistics below are descriptive facts about the resolved history.

Sample quality: UsableEnough resolved positions for a directional read; category-level splits may still be thin.

Diagnostics on public on-chain behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Frozen research snapshot

On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 74 resolved positions with a win rate of 85.1% and a realized edge over entry prices of +8.5 probability points, 95% CI [+1.6, +16.2] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval clears zero on the positive side.

One of 178 of 3871 wallets (each with at least 30 resolved positions on that snapshot) that cleared a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 for positive realized edge over entry prices; expected false discoveries among the cleared set are at most 17.8. This is in-sample skill-vs-luck separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill.

The frozen snapshot does not carry the single-event concentration screen that the live analyzer applies; the realized-edge read above (when present) is the concentration-screened read.

Snapshot 2026-04-25 · screen computed 2026-06-01 · registry sha256 5478f7c47b8296b2... · frozen methodology hash 39f07abfcabb84e9...

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x41fe...55ec?
On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 74 resolved positions with a win rate of 85.1% and a realized edge over entry prices of +8.5 probability points, 95% CI [+1.6, +16.2] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval clears zero on the positive side. These are descriptive statistics of a frozen past snapshot, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x41fe...55ec skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
One of 178 of 3871 wallets (each with at least 30 resolved positions on that snapshot) that cleared a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 for positive realized edge over entry prices; expected false discoveries among the cleared set are at most 17.8. This is in-sample skill-vs-luck separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill. Not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public on-chain behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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