realized edge +2.9 pp, 95% CI [-10.9, +17.0], n=41
Realized edge +2.9 probability points across 41 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-10.9, +17.0]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record.
Diagnostics on public behavior, not investment advice. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast. The figures describe the window this read covered, which omits redeemed positions and is not the full resolved record. This caveat travels with the badge in every view.
A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public Polymarket record, taken from the venue's recent-trade window. The statistics below describe that window, not the wallet's whole resolved record.
Sample quality: UsableEnough scored resolved positions for a directional read; category-level splits may still be thin.
Diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.
Coverage for this read has not been established; it is treated as a partial, windowed read.
Frozen research snapshot
On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 34 resolved positions with a win rate of 50.0% and a realized edge over entry prices of +3.1 probability points, 95% CI [-10.9, +18.8] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval includes zero, so on that snapshot the edge is not separable from chance.
Did not clear the Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 on that snapshot (178 of 3871 wallets cleared). That means no corrected evidence of skill on the snapshot, which is not the same as evidence of no skill. In-sample separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill.
The frozen snapshot does not carry the single-event concentration screen that the live analyzer applies; the realized-edge read above (when present) is the concentration-screened read.
Brier gap (baseline minus Brier): +0.0409. Descriptive only: no interval is computed for this gap on this surface. The interval-backed skill read on this page is the realized-edge block. Brier is scored lower-is-better against resolved outcomes; the baseline is a constant base-rate forecast on the same positions.
Biggest event: Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Category breakdown
Descriptive per-category reads; none is an FDR-cleared skill claim unless labeled. Categories with fewer than 3 resolved positions are excluded by the analyzer; small per-category samples are noisier than the headline sample.
Category
Resolved
Win rate
Brier
Baseline Brier
other
24
50.0%
0.160
0.250
politics
14
50.0%
0.264
0.250
Resolved-position history by entry price
Realized win rate per entry-price band versus the band's implied probability. Bands with zero resolved positions are omitted; thin bands are noisy.
Entry-price band
Resolved
Realized win rate
Band implied
50-60%
3
100.0%
55.0%
60-70%
4
75.0%
65.0%
70-80%
3
66.7%
75.0%
80-90%
3
66.7%
85.0%
90-100%
2
100.0%
95.0%
Frequently asked questions
What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0x3968...2b0f?
As of 2026-06-23, Convexly's cached read shows 41 resolved positions, 20 wins and 21 losses (win rate 48.8%). Realized edge over entry prices: +2.9 probability points, 95% CI [-10.9, +17.0] (BCa bootstrap, n = 41 scored positions). These are descriptive statistics of the past record, retrospective and in-sample, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0x3968...2b0f skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
Realized edge +2.9 probability points across 41 scored resolved positions, 95% CI [-10.9, +17.0]. These figures describe the recent-trade window this read covered, not the wallet's whole resolved record, so they cannot be read as an edge either way. A Convexly read of the public record. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, and this is not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public Polymarket behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.
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