Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Last trade recorded by our collectors
Market price
Current quote source and timing
Connecting to Polymarket
Public Polymarket CLOB observations. Midpoints are reference prices, not executable quotes. Gamma snapshots show fetch time only. These prices are not Convexly forecasts or ratings.
Part of event: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027
Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Top of book
Best bid
0.140
Best ask
0.150
Spread
6.9% of mid
1.00 pts
As reported by Polymarket's public API at 00:01 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.
Volume
24h volume
$39,643
Total volume
$64,915,817
Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Resolution rules
Rules supplied by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim; not independently reviewed or endorsed by Convexly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Show the full rules textHide the full rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution mechanics
Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.
- Resolved by (UMA adapter)
- 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
- Proposer bond
- $500 proposer bond
- Proposer reward
- $5 proposer reward
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See ResearcherMarket opened 2025-11-04 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.010 · as stated by Polymarket.