Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Composite 64 · Do not cite

3 measured3 heuristic1 pending

Coherencemeasuredweight 20.0
4 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 23 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
- · full_provenance_cme_signal_linked
- · signal_price_observations_linked
- · no_observed_checkpoint_yet
30+7.5
Liquidityheuristicweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
- · top-of-book spread 1.0c
- · spread is 1% of mid — tight relative to price
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
100+18.8
Depthheuristicweight 15.0
Deep book on both sides; large orders absorb without big mid-shift.
- · min-side depth $61,692 within ±5c of mid
- · bid $61,692 / ask $61,692
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
95+17.8
Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.
- · resolution_metadata_present_manual_review_pending
55+10.3
Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · high_participant_concentration
- · high_unknown_flow_share
- · insufficient_scored_accounts
—no contrib
Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Heavy concentration / wash-pattern signals; treat with caution.
- · wash-pattern round-trips on 7.8% of flow
- · top-3 wallets control 89% of notional flow
- · 84% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
- · flow_events:472
25+3.1
Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+6.3

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.

Caveat: 1 pillar pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.