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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?

Last trade recorded by our collectors
Polymarket price0.98Nolast trade · 38d agoFrom Convexly's own collectors; not a quote.

Resolved price

As reported by Polymarket

Resolved · venue-reported payout. Chart shows historical trading prices.

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Polymarket price history · Yes · UTC
Resolved price source and timing

Venue reports closed or resolved

Yes · Resolution price fetched: 2026-09-10 04:48:24 UTC. This is not the settlement time.
No · Resolution price fetched: 2026-09-10 04:48:24 UTC. This is not the settlement time.

Polymarket Gamma reports this market as resolved and supplies these outcome prices. This is venue-reported data, not an independent chain verification. Resolved payouts are not live trading quotes.

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Part of event: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? · strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best ask

0.001

Spread

0.001

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 04:48 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.

Volume

Total volume

$7,192,395

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules supplied by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim; not independently reviewed or endorsed by Convexly.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 15, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Show the full rules text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 15, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Automatic resolution: Polymarket states this market resolves through its sports-oracle auto-resolution path rather than through the UMA proposer flow.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-07-27 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.

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