Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
This market will resolve according to the result of the season series between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If the Baltimore Ravens win the season series, this market will resolve to “Ravens”. If the Cincinnati Bengals win the season series, this market will resolve to “Bengals”. If the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals tie the season series, this market will resolve to “tie”. If any scheduled game between the listed teams during the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, not completed, or otherwise does not produce an official result — including due to a shortened, truncated, or early-ended season — the season series will be determined solely using official results of completed games. If the season is cancelled, no games between the teams are completed, or the result of the season series cannot otherwise be confirmed by January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the NFL, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Show the full rules textHide the full rules text
This market will resolve according to the result of the season series between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If the Baltimore Ravens win the season series, this market will resolve to “Ravens”. If the Cincinnati Bengals win the season series, this market will resolve to “Bengals”. If the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals tie the season series, this market will resolve to “tie”. If any scheduled game between the listed teams during the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, not completed, or otherwise does not produce an official result — including due to a shortened, truncated, or early-ended season — the season series will be determined solely using official results of completed games. If the season is cancelled, no games between the teams are completed, or the result of the season series cannot otherwise be confirmed by January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the NFL, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate
Will the Ravens win the season series against the Bengals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 40 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
2 measured · 2 modeled · 2 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
- CoherenceMeasuredlow readingweight 25.0
1 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signal linked to this condition; 1 price-observation checkpoint recorded.
- · full provenance cme signal linked
- · signal price observations linked
- · no observed checkpoint yet
30+10.7 - ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability takes the worse of spread and depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 53.0c
- · spread: spread is 73% of mid, heavy slippage on size
- · spread: depth approximated from a probability-point band and split evenly per side; a per-side breakdown is not yet available
10+2.9 - Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+20.0 - Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
No participant flow rollup materialized yet.
- · participant flow pending
not assessed - Integrity-risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0
No participant concentration rollup materialized yet.
- · missing input
not assessed - Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 1 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hash missing
- · source watermarks healthy
85+6.1
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0 of 100.0; the remaining 30.0 is unmeasured.
Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See Researcher