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polymarket
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Facts above are read from Polygon logs by Convexly and dated by the block they were emitted in. They are not a review of the market and not investment advice.
Resolution rules
Resolution text decoded by Convexly from the on-chain question payload emitted at Polygon block 90,592,502, reproduced verbatim; not reviewed or endorsed by Convexly.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other"., id: 3008499
A payout vector for this market's condition was reported to the shared ConditionalTokens contract on Polygon at block 94,724,971.
The contract is shared and not venue-operated; the reporting address says who reported the payout, never who was right. Outcome indices refer to positions in the payout vector, not to venue outcome labels.
Settlement read via the resolved-markets feed | swept through block 95,489,357
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None of the wallets in Convexly's provably-complete set has been observed trading this market. That is a statement about this set's observed footprint, not about who trades here.
Check any Polymarket wallet →Boundary of this page
This page carries the market question and resolution text as decoded from its on-chain payload, and the settlement recorded on chain when one exists. Venue prices, rules and observed fills are shown to signed-in accounts. It is not investment advice and not a claim about how this market will resolve.
Reading this page with a script? The market question text, the on-chain settlement and dispute records and the wallet records are available in a documented form with an API key. API documentation, or write to research@convexly.app.