Public worked example
A 149.40 pUSD payment, traced
What explains a September 22, 2026 payment to 54 wallets? The strongest explanation is reimbursement of selected trading fees and purchase costs. The payer's purpose and one 0.30 pUSD attribution remain unconfirmed.
Retrospective investigation · Published
What the amounts match
View payment transaction146.97 pUSD
52 recipients
Selected recorded fees
107 selected fills across four Russia/EU markets carried 146.985350 pUSD in recorded fee components before per-wallet rounding. One combined builder charge is included.
2.13 pUSD
1 recipient
Craig match-winner purchase cost
42.54736 shares × 0.05 = 2.127368 pUSD before cent rounding, for Corey Craig in the Bobo/Craig market.
0.30 pUSD
1 recipient · unresolved
Two equal purchase-cost candidates
Craig first-set shares (5 × 0.06) and Maltsev vs. Pytsko shares (10 × 0.03) both match. They are alternatives for the same payment. Amount alone cannot choose between them.
Primary decimal half-up rounding matches 53 of 54 payments. One 0.495 basis was paid as 0.49. Tested half-down and binary-rounding variants match 54 of 54, but do not identify the payer's implementation.
Evidence beyond matching amounts
Historical fees. Archived Polymarket pages show a fee-curve coefficient of 0.04 on September 19 and zero on September 20 for all four conditions. This is not a flat 4% charge. Capture times do not establish the exact effective change or prove a particular trade was charged incorrectly.
Sports records. The final ITF main and qualifying draws include Bobo and Craig, but no pairing between them. That supports investigating the fixture; it does not establish cancellation or a resolution error. The Craig first-set market settled after the payment. Maltsev settled losing before it, so an ordinary losing purchase remains a real alternative for the 0.30 payment.
How the 107 fills were selected
We started with the payment and reconstructed relevant pre-payment trades and fees for its 54 recipients. The four markets emerged from that search: Russia military action against an EU country by September 30 and December 31, and an EU country blaming Russia for a new sabotage attack by October 31 and December 31, 2026.
Within those markets, we included all reconstructed pre-payment fills whose recorded charge uniquely matched the 0.04 fee curve, alone or combined with a builder charge of 0.5% of notional. Full charges were summed per wallet, then rounded once to cents. September 19 emerged from the selected fills rather than an imposed date cutoff.
Individual fills were not selected to make each payment fit. The market selection and reimbursement explanation were retrospective, not a blinded test. Historical pages were a later cross-check. The checked records do not establish complete lifetime wallet history or a universal rule for other payment batches.
Public sources and capture dates
- Military markets: September 19 archive
Captured September 19, 2026 at 08:06:26 UTC. Fee coefficient: 0.04.
- Military markets: September 20 archive
Captured September 20, 2026 at 12:06:58 UTC. Fee coefficient: 0.
- Sabotage markets: September 19 archive
Captured September 19, 2026 at 12:06:37 UTC. Fee coefficient: 0.04.
- Sabotage markets: September 20 archive
Captured September 20, 2026 at 04:05:42 UTC. Fee coefficient: 0.
- ITF Columbia final main draw
Read October 19, 2026. Final draw, not a history of earlier schedules.
- ITF Columbia final qualifying draw
Read October 19, 2026. Considered together with the final main draw.
- Setka Cup: Maltsev vs. Pytsko
September 21 London evening schedule, read October 19, 2026. Maltsev lost 1-3.
Archive captures were retrieved October 19, 2026. These are retained factual observations, not sources fetched again when you open this page. Final sports records do not cover withdrawn schedules. Later market-rule captures do not establish which rule version applied at the time.
Read the published findings and discussionHave a payment to explain?
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This case's historical documents were separately reviewed and added as reproducible evidence. The Lab does not automatically discover every historical source, and a matching amount alone cannot confirm why a payment was made.