Wallet ledger

0xf797…0bf2

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

$136.6K

Win rate

51%

Realized edge

-0.012

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge -0.012 across 83 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.08, +0.06]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (172 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No	Open	8,130	58¢	$1.3K	+28%	2026-12-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No	Open	6,180	84¢	$983	+19%	2026-09-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	4,000	42¢	$750	+45%	2026-11-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? No	Open	3,582	56¢	$685	+34%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No	Open	2,728	45¢	$588	+47%	2027-01-01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? No	Open	3,034	80¢	$572	+24%	2026-09-01
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%? Over	Open	2,061	44¢	$517	+57%	2026-09-06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? Yes	Open	23,000	2¢	$421	+110%	2026-09-15
Will SPD win at least 9% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	2,983	2¢	$357	+597%	2026-09-06
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	2,053	38¢	$293	+37%	2026-09-06
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? No	Open	3,478	49¢	$264	+15%	2028-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Yes	Open	10,716	16¢	$263	+15%	2026-10-31
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	6,988	71¢	$223	+4%	2026-09-20
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,892	26¢	$218	+44%	2026-10-01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31? Yes	Open	1,848	85¢	$194	+12%	2027-01-01
Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes? No	Open	1,085	47¢	$155	+31%	2026-09-06
Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down? Down	Open	1,000	14¢	$135	+96%	2026-09-20
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? No	Open	1,615	85¢	$114	+8%	2026-10-01
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes	Open	247	50¢	$112	+91%	2026-08-31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No	Open	5,000	97¢	$110	+2%	2026-09-01
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? No	Open	2,700	96¢	$98	+4%	2026-08-31
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No	Open	1,021	67¢	$95	+14%	2026-10-01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No	Open	1,002	84¢	$85	+10%	2027-01-01
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? No	Open	500	42¢	$85	+40%	2027-01-01
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No	Open	200	50¢	$81	+81%	2027-01-01
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	504	37¢	$75	+40%	2026-10-04
Will Grüne be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? Yes	Open	260	20¢	$74	+140%	2026-12-31
Berlin State Election: CDU Over/Under 20%? Under	Open	520	52¢	$73	+27%	2026-09-20
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	5,289	28¢	$70	+5%	2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes	Open	1,239	21¢	$68	+26%	2026-11-30
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Open	300	36¢	$67	+63%	2026-12-31
Fed rate hike in 2026? No	Open	1,000	37¢	$65	+18%	2026-12-09
Will Warsh say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? Yes	Open	220	40¢	$63	+72%	2026-08-28
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? No	Open	3,466	94¢	$57	+2%	2026-10-01
Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No	Open	952	52¢	$48	+10%	2026-09-20
Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? No	Open	800	94¢	$45	+6%	2026-09-01
Will Lance Oppenheim win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	320	83¢	$44	+17%	2027-03-14
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? No	Open	600	89¢	$39	+7%	2026-09-01
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes	Open	2,058	23¢	$39	+8%	2027-07-01
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or BSW? SPD	Open	252	78¢	$38	+19%	2026-09-06
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%? Under	Open	700	59¢	$34	+8%	2026-09-06
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	600	77¢	$33	+7%	2026-12-31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No	Open	500	70¢	$33	+9%	2026-10-28
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No	Open	1,238	80¢	$32	+3%	2027-01-01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by August 31? No	Open	300	90¢	$29	+11%	2026-09-01
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	1,872	0¢	$27	+363%	2026-09-30
Will CDU win at least 26% of all valid second votes? No	Open	1,081	85¢	$26	+3%	2026-09-06
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? No	Open	196	31¢	$25	+40%	2027-07-01
Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government? No	Open	60	38¢	$23	+101%	2026-12-31
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No	Open	200	39¢	$23	+29%	2027-01-01
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? Yes	Open	123	22¢	$18	+66%	2026-12-31
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No	Open	237	80¢	$17	+9%	2026-08-29
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August? No	Open	60	68¢	$16	+40%	2026-09-01
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? No	Open	382	94¢	$16	+4%	2026-09-30
Will AfD win 34-37 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No	Open	967	95¢	$15	+2%	2026-09-06
Will FDP be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? No	Open	600	94¢	$15	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026? No	Open	1,120	93¢	$14	+1%	2026-12-31
Will AfD be in the next Berlin state government? No	Open	623	96¢	$13	+2%	2026-12-31
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to Grüne or BSW? Grüne	Open	74	59¢	$13	+30%	2026-09-06
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	2,008	4¢	$13	+18%	2026-11-01
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No	Open	220	90¢	$12	+6%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No	Open	1,451	97¢	$9	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Trump attend UFC 331? Yes	Open	561	5¢	$8	+30%	2026-09-19
Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? Yes	Open	40	30¢	$8	+67%	2026-12-31
Iran full airspace closure by September 30? No	Open	33	72¢	$8	+31%	2026-10-01
Will AfD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? No	Open	129	89¢	$7	+6%	2026-12-31
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? No	Open	514	29¢	$7	+5%	2027-01-01
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long? No	Open	19	52¢	$6	+66%	2026-08-27
Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? No	Open	41	51¢	$6	+28%	2026-12-31
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during remarks at NASA? No	Open	1,159	81¢	$6	+1%	2026-08-28
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	98	11¢	$6	+52%	2026-12-31
Will AfD win 46-49 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No	Open	1,020	94¢	$5	+1%	2026-09-06
Will Trump praise Allah again by September 30? Yes	Open	21	40¢	$5	+63%	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes	Open	80	73¢	$5	+9%	2026-12-31
Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in September 2026? No	Open	41	69¢	$5	+18%	2026-09-30
Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	32	20¢	$4	+65%	2026-09-20
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No	Open	818	91¢	$4	+1%	2026-12-31
Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026? No	Open	200	46¢	$4	+4%	2026-11-01
Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? No	Open	254	26¢	$4	+6%	2026-08-28
Will Grüne win less than 3% of all valid second votes? No	Open	55	90¢	$4	+7%	2026-09-06
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? Yes	Open	26	23¢	$3	+57%	2029-01-01
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes	Open	216	48¢	$3	+3%	2027-01-01
Will Darline Graham win at least 30% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff? Yes	Open	96	96¢	$3	+3%	2026-08-25
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	206	6¢	$3	+22%	2026-12-31
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? No	Open	231	98¢	$3	+1%	2026-09-01
Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	166	58¢	$2	+3%	2026-09-06
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%? Over	Open	20	57¢	$2	+21%	2026-09-06
Will BSW be in the next Berlin state government? No	Open	150	95¢	$2	+2%	2026-12-31
Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD? AfD	Open	7	30¢	$2	+102%	2026-09-20
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%? Under	Open	10	61¢	$2	+32%	2026-09-06
Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government? Yes	Open	20	76¢	$2	+13%	2026-12-31
Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? Yes	Open	10	47¢	$2	+39%	2026-08-28
Will Warsh say "Productivity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? No	Open	67	20¢	$2	+12%	2026-08-28
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31? No	Open	161	23¢	$2	+4%	2026-08-31
Will Trump say "SpaceX" during remarks at NASA? No	Open	30	73¢	$2	+7%	2026-08-28
Will CDU win between 11% and 14% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	50	12¢	$2	+25%	2026-09-20
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No	Open	17	89¢	$1	+9%	2026-08-31
Will Darline Graham win at least 65% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff? No	Open	189	83¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-25
Will The Left win the third most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No	Open	35	2¢	$1	+132%	2026-09-06
Will AfD win less than 39% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	37	7¢	$1	+36%	2026-09-06
Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? No	Open	5	35¢	$1	+53%	2026-08-28
Will Warsh say "Integrity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? No	Open	15	59¢	$1	+8%	2026-08-28
Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? No	Open	74	80¢	$1	+1%	2026-12-31
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No	Open	13	92¢	$1	+5%	2026-12-31
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026? No	Open	20	65¢	$1	+4%	2027-01-01
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD? SPD	Open	20	10¢	$0	+20%	2026-09-20
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? No	Open	29	96¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-20
Will SPD win 18-21 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	30	1¢	$0	+93%	2026-09-20
Will AfD win 20-23 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No	Open	27	92¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-20
Will CDU win the third most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	21	0¢	$0	+775%	2026-09-06
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No	Open	56	98¢	$0	+1%	1970-01-01
Will Trump say "Space Force" during remarks at NASA? No	Open	18	15¢	$0	+9%	2026-08-28
Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? Yes	Open	43	14¢	$0	+4%	2026-08-28
Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? No	Open	17	34¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-28
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	7	7¢	$0	+12%	2026-12-31
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No	Open	3,000	48¢	$0	+0%	2027-01-01
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	1	99¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-06
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,000	5¢	$0	0%	2027-01-01
Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	15	32¢	-$0	-2%	2026-09-06
Will AfD win 36 or more seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No	Open	112	93¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-20
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 20 minutes long? No	Open	5	15¢	-$0	-57%	2026-08-27
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes	Open	21	19¢	-$1	-13%	2026-12-31
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in September 2026? Yes	Open	140	13¢	-$1	-4%	2026-09-30
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes	Open	44	7¢	-$2	-57%	2026-08-31
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 5–10%? Yes	Open	4	63¢	-$2	-98%	2026-08-25
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes	Open	900	42¢	-$2	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Trump say "Flag" during remarks at NASA? No	Open	500	18¢	-$3	-3%	2026-08-28
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	64	5¢	-$3	-91%	2026-06-30
Will Grüne win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	88	11¢	-$3	-32%	2026-09-20
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Open	381	1¢	-$4	-79%	2026-10-31
Will Warsh say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? No	Open	168	34¢	-$4	-6%	2026-08-28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes	Open	11	72¢	-$4	-49%	2026-12-31
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne? Grüne	Open	322	20¢	-$5	-7%	2026-09-06
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down? Down	Open	241	9¢	-$5	-22%	2026-09-06
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	135	5¢	-$7	-94%	2026-09-06
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes	Open	8,352	16¢	-$7	-1%	2026-10-31
Iran leadership change by September 30? Yes	Open	100	11¢	-$8	-69%	2026-10-01
Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	61	86¢	-$8	-16%	2026-09-20
Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No	Open	309	46¢	-$9	-7%	2026-09-20
Will Darline Graham win at least 75% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff? No	Open	264	84¢	-$11	-5%	2026-08-25
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%? Under	Open	300	35¢	-$12	-11%	2026-09-06
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No	Open	513	32¢	-$13	-8%	2026-12-31
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	1,351	34¢	-$13	-3%	2027-03-14
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by less than 5%? No	Open	28	62¢	-$17	-97%	2026-08-25
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No	Open	500	22¢	-$18	-16%	2027-01-01
Will SPD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? Yes	Open	300	81¢	-$18	-7%	2026-12-31
Will Trump say "Smart" during remarks at NASA? No	Open	200	41¢	-$18	-22%	2026-08-28
Will The Left win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	1,276	2¢	-$19	-66%	2026-09-06
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No	Open	100	87¢	-$20	-22%	2026-12-31
Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? No	Open	573	47¢	-$24	-9%	2026-08-28
Will Trump say "Mission" during remarks at NASA? No	Open	300	17¢	-$27	-53%	2026-08-28
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Yes	Open	65,312	0¢	-$32	-49%	1970-01-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	300	77¢	-$37	-16%	2026-09-16
Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? Yes	Open	551	23¢	-$48	-38%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No	Open	305	29¢	-$50	-56%	2027-01-01
Nothing Ever Happens: August Something	Open	391	14¢	-$51	-93%	2026-08-31
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 25 minutes long? No	Open	303	42¢	-$54	-43%	2026-08-27
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No	Open	2,042	31¢	-$92	-15%	2026-12-31
Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? No	Open	1,100	35¢	-$99	-26%	2026-09-13
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? No	Open	200	65¢	-$104	-80%	2026-08-29
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No	Open	1,281	19¢	-$150	-63%	2027-01-01
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No	Open	678	45¢	-$183	-60%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes	Open	5,000	20¢	-$195	-19%	1970-01-01
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? Yes	Open	3,511	28¢	-$278	-28%	2027-01-01
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes	Open	1,284	27¢	-$325	-93%	2026-08-31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No	Open	3,649	65¢	-$444	-19%	2027-01-01
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No	Open	952	59¢	-$517	-92%	2026-08-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	3,000	21¢	-$553	-86%	2026-09-01
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	10,137	10¢	-$735	-70%	2026-09-20
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No	Open	40,590	6¢	-$1.7K	-74%	2026-09-06
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes	Open	15,962	40¢	-$2.3K	-35%	2026-09-06
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	38,166	19¢	-$3.1K	-43%	2026-09-20

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