Wallet ledger

0x9d84…1344

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

$1.7K

Win rate

33%

Realized edge

-0.011

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge -0.011 across 9 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.07, +0.01]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (419 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	39,766	8¢	$30.7K	+927%	2026-12-31
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No	Open	93,517	68¢	$25.2K	+40%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No	Open	179,587	64¢	$8.5K	+7%	2026-09-16
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No	Open	90,622	23¢	$6.7K	+32%	2026-08-11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Open	123,939	79¢	$5.7K	+6%	2026-12-31
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes	Open	34,280	16¢	$5.0K	+90%	2026-08-11
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No	Open	7,278	39¢	$4.2K	+145%	2026-12-31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes	Open	35,698	86¢	$4.0K	+13%	2026-08-31
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? No	Open	29,612	86¢	$3.9K	+15%	2026-10-01
No one announced as next James Bond? No	Open	70,950	74¢	$2.9K	+6%	2026-12-31
Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series? No	Open	9,453	37¢	$2.7K	+77%	2026-09-14
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	52,602	18¢	$2.6K	+27%	2028-11-07
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Open	16,382	52¢	$2.4K	+29%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No	Open	15,196	71¢	$1.9K	+18%	1970-01-01
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Yes	Open	14,735	12¢	$1.5K	+88%	1970-01-01
Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by September 30? No	Open	2,954	43¢	$1.5K	+121%	2026-09-30
Will Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series? No	Open	5,535	57¢	$1.4K	+45%	2026-09-14
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	153,748	67¢	$1.3K	+1%	2026-09-16
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	709,969	1¢	$1.3K	+24%	2028-11-07
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No	Open	26,179	90¢	$995	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No	Open	7,763	46¢	$844	+24%	2026-12-31
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? Yes	Open	1,968	57¢	$731	+65%	2026-12-31
Iran Nuke before 2027? No	Open	7,665	86¢	$715	+11%	2026-12-31
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	61,629	10¢	$666	+11%	2028-11-07
Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series? Yes	Open	4,069	39¢	$659	+42%	2026-09-14
Stripe IPO before 2027? No	Open	4,153	83¢	$589	+17%	2026-12-31
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No	Open	2,555	74¢	$539	+28%	2026-12-31
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes	Open	5,375	82¢	$428	+10%	2026-12-31
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes	Open	3,596	46¢	$420	+26%	2026-12-31
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No	Open	8,177	77¢	$407	+7%	2027-01-01
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? Yes	Open	8,123	23¢	$365	+19%	2026-12-31
New pandemic in 2026? No	Open	3,384	84¢	$365	+13%	2026-12-31
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No	Open	2,601	71¢	$311	+17%	2026-12-31
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No	Open	28,652	78¢	$280	+1%	2028-11-07
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	1,665	71¢	$280	+24%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? No	Open	1,665	71¢	$272	+23%	1970-01-01
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No	Open	2,555	83¢	$268	+13%	2026-01-31
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Yes	Open	1,571	67¢	$240	+23%	2027-12-31
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? No	Open	1,555	83¢	$228	+18%	2026-12-31
Discord IPO before 2027? No	Open	427	20¢	$225	+260%	2026-12-31
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? No	Open	1,555	83¢	$216	+17%	2026-12-31
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No	Open	2,969	86¢	$213	+8%	2026-12-31
Will Bradley Whitford – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series? Yes	Open	2,694	17¢	$193	+41%	2026-09-14
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B? No	Open	707	61¢	$190	+44%	2027-01-01
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No	Open	2,478	90¢	$189	+8%	2026-12-31
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? No	Open	690	69¢	$182	+38%	2027-01-01
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? No	Open	1,428	87¢	$175	+14%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	2,482	88¢	$171	+8%	1970-01-01
Theo James announced as next James Bond? No	Open	4,095	92¢	$170	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	3,713	77¢	$167	+6%	2027-03-14
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	3,393	18¢	$166	+27%	2027-01-01
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Open	19,010	85¢	$164	+1%	2026-12-31
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? No	Open	1,500	88¢	$159	+12%	2026-12-09
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	16,692	3¢	$156	+27%	2026-10-10
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Open	838	55¢	$155	+34%	2026-12-31
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? No	Open	449	56¢	$154	+61%	2026-12-31
Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	4,176	62¢	$153	+6%	2027-03-14
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? No	Open	1,973	86¢	$147	+9%	2026-12-31
Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	5,280	69¢	$146	+4%	2027-03-14
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No	Open	1,560	76¢	$140	+12%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	787	72¢	$138	+24%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No	Open	2,763	90¢	$135	+5%	1970-01-01
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes	Open	7,482	91¢	$134	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? No	Open	616	30¢	$132	+71%	2026-08-24
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? No	Open	1,667	90¢	$131	+9%	2026-12-31
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Open	354	40¢	$123	+87%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? No	Open	28,990	19¢	$120	+2%	1970-01-01
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No	Open	1,930	83¢	$115	+7%	2027-01-01
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	1,524	79¢	$114	+9%	2027-02-28
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? No	Open	1,473	85¢	$111	+9%	2026-12-31
Ledger IPO before 2027? No	Open	165	25¢	$110	+266%	2026-12-31
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? No	Open	1,164	73¢	$109	+13%	1970-01-01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	1,272	58¢	$109	+15%	2026-10-04
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? No	Open	303	40¢	$103	+85%	1970-01-01
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? No	Open	766	71¢	$98	+18%	2026-01-31
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes	Open	375	22¢	$97	+118%	2026-11-03
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No	Open	1,555	91¢	$93	+7%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	3,281	94¢	$89	+3%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	1,849	91¢	$87	+5%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	2,028	91¢	$86	+5%	1970-01-01
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No	Open	766	78¢	$82	+14%	2026-12-31
Will Betty Gilpin – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series? Yes	Open	748	32¢	$76	+32%	2026-09-14
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? No	Open	3,505	92¢	$75	+2%	1970-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No	Open	750	87¢	$70	+11%	2026-03-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? No	Open	2,665	33¢	$67	+8%	2027-04-01
Don Lemon sentenced to prison? No	Open	936	88¢	$66	+8%	1970-01-01
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes	Open	514	15¢	$66	+85%	2026-12-31
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	1,954	50¢	$64	+7%	2027-03-14
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Open	6,936	66¢	$64	+1%	2026-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	5,903	95¢	$63	+1%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	1,826	9¢	$57	+34%	1970-01-01
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? No	Open	1,002	89¢	$55	+6%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	1,794	94¢	$55	+3%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	532	77¢	$52	+13%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	2,201	93¢	$52	+3%	1970-01-01
Tim Walz in jail by December 31? No	Open	1,698	92¢	$51	+3%	2026-03-31
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? No	Open	555	92¢	$40	+8%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Maine governor race in 2026? No	Open	875	91¢	$38	+5%	1970-01-01
Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 30? No	Open	1,902	97¢	$36	+2%	2026-08-30
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Open	623	91¢	$34	+6%	2027-01-01
Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	1,576	57¢	$34	+4%	2027-03-14
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	305	23¢	$34	+48%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	569	54¢	$32	+10%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? No	Open	700	91¢	$32	+5%	1970-01-01
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	6,902	0¢	$31	+225%	2028-11-07
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? No	Open	555	86¢	$31	+6%	2026-12-31
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Yes	Open	399	16¢	$30	+46%	2026-12-31
Will Jamie Lee Curtis – “The Bear” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series? Yes	Open	611	10¢	$29	+47%	2026-09-14
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? No	Open	644	91¢	$28	+5%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? No	Open	558	54¢	$28	+9%	1970-01-01
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	2,066	5¢	$28	+30%	2026-06-30
Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	443	90¢	$27	+7%	1970-01-01
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Open	139	31¢	$27	+63%	2026-11-03
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? No	Open	160	73¢	$27	+23%	1970-01-01
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes	Open	5,555	4¢	$25	+11%	2027-03-31
Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	427	33¢	$24	+17%	2027-03-14
Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	555	92¢	$24	+5%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? No	Open	555	93¢	$23	+5%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	556	94¢	$23	+4%	1970-01-01
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No	Open	646	73¢	$23	+5%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	382	90¢	$23	+7%	1970-01-01
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes	Open	1,120	15¢	$22	+13%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	479	92¢	$22	+5%	1970-01-01
Clavicular sentenced to prison? No	Open	251	81¢	$21	+10%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026? No	Open	480	93¢	$20	+4%	1970-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? No	Open	1,295	88¢	$19	+2%	2028-08-10
Will Andrew Scott win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	2,443	15¢	$19	+5%	2027-03-14
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-03 House seat? Yes	Open	3,803	94¢	$19	+1%	2026-11-03
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	541	92¢	$19	+4%	1970-01-01
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No	Open	333	89¢	$18	+6%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	3,618	8¢	$18	+6%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Alabama Senate race in 2026? No	Open	802	93¢	$17	+2%	1970-01-01
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat? Yes	Open	3,831	94¢	$16	+0%	2026-11-03
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	18,867	2¢	$16	+4%	2028-11-07
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	615	93¢	$15	+3%	1970-01-01
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	1,111	2¢	$15	+75%	2026-10-10
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	189	89¢	$14	+9%	1970-01-01
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No	Open	555	92¢	$14	+3%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? No	Open	1,048	93¢	$13	+1%	1970-01-01
Will the Republican Party win the MS-01 House seat? Yes	Open	2,564	94¢	$13	+1%	2026-11-03
Will Spain win the UEFA EURO 2028? No	Open	844	76¢	$13	+2%	1970-01-01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Open	2,462	65¢	$12	+1%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	252	90¢	$12	+5%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	262	88¢	$12	+5%	1970-01-01
Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	365	36¢	$11	+9%	2027-03-14
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	7,606	90¢	$11	+0%	2028-11-07
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	506	91¢	$11	+2%	1970-01-01
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? No	Open	170	87¢	$11	+7%	2027-03-31
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? No	Open	437	57¢	$11	+4%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	265	56¢	$11	+7%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	617	94¢	$10	+2%	1970-01-01
Will "Dune: Messiah" make it into the IMDb Top 250? Yes	Open	91	68¢	$10	+17%	2027-03-31
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes	Open	974	5¢	$10	+20%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? No	Open	388	89¢	$10	+3%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Virginia Senate race in 2026? No	Open	214	91¢	$10	+5%	1970-01-01
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? No	Open	207	95¢	$9	+5%	2026-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Illinois governor race in 2026? No	Open	176	91¢	$9	+6%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026? No	Open	247	93¢	$9	+4%	1970-01-01
Will the Republican Party win the LA-03 House seat? Yes	Open	1,733	94¢	$9	+1%	2026-11-03
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	555	91¢	$8	+2%	1970-01-01
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,271	14¢	$8	+5%	2028-11-07
Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027? No	Open	108	89¢	$8	+8%	2026-12-31
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Open	1,477	88¢	$7	+1%	2026-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026? No	Open	59	23¢	$7	+55%	1970-01-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	238	11¢	$7	+28%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	141	90¢	$6	+5%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? No	Open	709	93¢	$6	+1%	1970-01-01
Obama federally charged before 2027? No	Open	200	90¢	$6	+3%	2026-12-31
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No	Open	172	94¢	$6	+4%	2027-01-01
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? Yes	Open	2,174	11¢	$5	+2%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	76	90¢	$5	+7%	1970-01-01
Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	604	89¢	$5	+1%	2027-01-21
Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat? Yes	Open	982	94¢	$5	+1%	2026-11-03
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	131	89¢	$5	+4%	2026-11-03
Will Jeff Kober – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series? No	Open	283	89¢	$5	+2%	2026-09-14
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? No	Open	100	89¢	$5	+5%	2026-11-03
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	285	4¢	$4	+38%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? No	Open	100	94¢	$4	+4%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Idaho governor race in 2026? No	Open	232	3¢	$4	+52%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? No	Open	555	92¢	$3	+1%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? No	Open	555	7¢	$3	+7%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? No	Open	38	90¢	$3	+8%	1970-01-01
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	454	1¢	$2	+110%	2026-10-10
Will Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series? Yes	Open	269	91¢	$2	+1%	2026-09-14
Will “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series? Yes	Open	169	41¢	$2	+3%	2026-09-14
Will Lauren Weedman – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series? Yes	Open	122	3¢	$2	+60%	2026-09-14
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? No	Open	150	5¢	$2	+24%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	36	91¢	$2	+5%	1970-01-01
Will Martin Short – “Only Murders in the Building” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series? Yes	Open	168	6¢	$2	+19%	2026-09-14
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? No	Open	223	87¢	$2	+1%	2026-12-31
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes	Open	3,308	21¢	$2	+0%	2026-12-31
Tom Lee charged by December 31? No	Open	17	87¢	$2	+11%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? No	Open	320	19¢	$2	+3%	1970-01-01
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? No	Open	290	88¢	$1	+1%	2027-12-31
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	29	91¢	$1	+5%	1970-01-01
Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series? Yes	Open	131	34¢	$1	+3%	2026-09-14
Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	31	92¢	$1	+4%	1970-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes	Open	208	7¢	$1	+7%	2026-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	69	92¢	$1	+2%	1970-01-01
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? No	Open	25	96¢	$1	+3%	2026-12-31
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No	Open	9	89¢	$1	+10%	2027-02-28
Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	15	93¢	$1	+4%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? No	Open	11	91¢	$1	+5%	1970-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027? No	Open	8	86¢	$0	+8%	2026-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? No	Open	10	91¢	$0	+5%	1970-01-01
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	55	1¢	$0	+160%	2026-10-10
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? Yes	Open	83	23¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	178	4¢	$0	+5%	1970-01-01
Diddy released from custody in 2026? Yes	Open	5	13¢	$0	+52%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	73	5¢	$0	+9%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? No	Open	9	93¢	$0	+4%	1970-01-01
Will Kamala Harris be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028? Yes	Open	23	11¢	$0	+9%	2028-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	5	92¢	$0	+5%	1970-01-01
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? No	Open	70	89¢	$0	+0%	1970-01-01
Will Bernie Sanders be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? No	Open	5	95¢	$0	+3%	2028-08-10
Will Betty Gilpin – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series? No	Open	19	57¢	$0	+1%	2026-09-14
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? No	Open	1	89¢	$0	+11%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Idaho governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	100	3¢	$0	+3%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	5	4¢	$0	+25%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No	Open	1,555	89¢	$0	0%	1970-01-01
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4	1¢	-$0	-30%	2028-11-07
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? Yes	Open	2	3¢	-$0	-16%	2026-12-31
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat? No	Open	26	4¢	-$0	-4%	2026-11-03
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	14	5¢	-$0	-26%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Connecticut governor race in 2026? No	Open	16	5¢	-$0	-25%	1970-01-01
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	122	1¢	-$0	-70%	2026-10-10
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	193	1¢	-$1	-70%	2026-10-10
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? Yes	Open	23	14¢	-$1	-25%	2026-12-31
Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? Yes	Open	104	6¢	-$1	-16%	2026-12-31
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	698	0¢	-$1	-37%	2026-10-10
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? Yes	Open	216	5¢	-$1	-10%	2026-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026? No	Open	51	7¢	-$1	-42%	1970-01-01
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No	Open	277	15¢	-$1	-3%	2027-01-01
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? Yes	Open	254	3¢	-$1	-18%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	83	6¢	-$2	-36%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Hawaii governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	98	4¢	-$2	-48%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	50	6¢	-$2	-80%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	138	5¢	-$4	-55%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026? No	Open	188	6¢	-$4	-39%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	211	6¢	-$5	-36%	1970-01-01
Will Trey Gowdy be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes	Open	2,720	0¢	-$5	-77%	2026-08-11
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	135	7¢	-$5	-52%	1970-01-01
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? Yes	Open	272	17¢	-$5	-12%	2027-01-01
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes	Open	6,075	55¢	-$6	-0%	2026-12-09
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? No	Open	430	93¢	-$6	-1%	2027-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Connecticut governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	281	5¢	-$6	-44%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	291	6¢	-$7	-42%	1970-01-01
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	340	3¢	-$7	-68%	2028-11-07
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	3,205	10¢	-$8	-3%	2026-09-30
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Yes	Open	1,035	2¢	-$11	-48%	2026-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Delaware Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	818	6¢	-$12	-25%	1970-01-01
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Yes	Open	243	38¢	-$13	-14%	2027-12-31
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes	Open	99	27¢	-$15	-57%	2026-11-03
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	1,663	2¢	-$16	-63%	2026-10-10
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	32	50¢	-$16	-100%	2026-11-03
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Yes	Open	737	20¢	-$16	-11%	2027-01-01
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Open	1,574	1¢	-$17	-88%	2026-12-31
Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31? Yes	Open	983	2¢	-$20	-98%	2026-08-31
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes	Open	136	26¢	-$23	-63%	2026-11-19
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	655	91¢	-$25	-4%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	188	61¢	-$25	-22%	1970-01-01
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes	Open	555	37¢	-$28	-14%	2027-12-31
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	109	29¢	-$32	-100%	2026-11-03
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes	Open	8,695	13¢	-$35	-3%	2026-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	236	76¢	-$37	-20%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No	Open	244	76¢	-$40	-22%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? No	Open	1,110	7¢	-$41	-49%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	1,110	7¢	-$44	-53%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026? No	Open	756	92¢	-$44	-6%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	273	33¢	-$44	-48%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? No	Open	1,666	90¢	-$45	-3%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	564	90¢	-$48	-9%	1970-01-01
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Yes	Open	10,329	10¢	-$52	-5%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? No	Open	155	61¢	-$55	-58%	1970-01-01
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	1,555	4¢	-$55	-89%	2028-11-07
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No	Open	626	90¢	-$57	-10%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No	Open	510	41¢	-$59	-28%	1970-01-01
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Open	11,061	4¢	-$62	-15%	2027-04-30
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? No	Open	1,555	93¢	-$65	-4%	2026-12-31
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No	Open	1,110	29¢	-$67	-21%	1970-01-01
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	7,318	2¢	-$70	-45%	2028-11-07
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No	Open	488	62¢	-$74	-25%	1970-01-01
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes	Open	15,000	16¢	-$75	-3%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	1,656	91¢	-$76	-5%	1970-01-01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? No	Open	5,154	30¢	-$80	-5%	2026-10-28
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	488	24¢	-$83	-71%	1970-01-01
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes	Open	2,704	4¢	-$84	-74%	2026-11-03
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? No	Open	488	25¢	-$89	-74%	1970-01-01
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	1,599	6¢	-$89	-87%	2026-06-30
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No	Open	217	79¢	-$89	-52%	2026-11-03
Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	2,545	72¢	-$94	-5%	2027-01-21
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31? No	Open	2,474	28¢	-$99	-14%	2026-08-31
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	13,822	1¢	-$106	-63%	2028-11-07
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	1,952	41¢	-$115	-14%	2026-11-03
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	1,061	81¢	-$116	-13%	2026-11-03
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? Yes	Open	1,365	14¢	-$119	-61%	2027-12-31
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250? No	Open	1,588	66¢	-$119	-11%	2027-03-31
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	4,440	6¢	-$122	-42%	2026-12-31
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No	Open	9,088	53¢	-$135	-3%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	7,500	4¢	-$139	-53%	2028-11-07
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes	Open	8,875	5¢	-$140	-31%	2027-03-31
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,110	16¢	-$143	-78%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? No	Open	510	36¢	-$145	-78%	1970-01-01
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	11,725	47¢	-$153	-3%	2027-03-14
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes	Open	555	30¢	-$165	-99%	2026-12-31
Will Ernest Harden Jr. – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series? Yes	Open	2,555	15¢	-$166	-42%	2026-09-14
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes	Open	2,413	50¢	-$169	-14%	2026-12-31
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Open	1,061	67¢	-$174	-24%	2026-11-03
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	1,020	50¢	-$190	-37%	2026-11-03
Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	462	50¢	-$194	-84%	2026-11-03
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Open	4,660	4¢	-$203	-97%	2026-12-31
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	14,648	3¢	-$210	-44%	2026-10-10
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No	Open	6,110	65¢	-$216	-5%	1970-01-01
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	810	37¢	-$228	-77%	1970-01-01
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes	Open	16,518	11¢	-$234	-13%	2026-12-31
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	50,000	8¢	-$236	-6%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	48,642	31¢	-$297	-2%	1970-01-01
US recession by end of 2026? Yes	Open	1,555	28¢	-$319	-73%	2027-01-31
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	1,110	78¢	-$333	-38%	1970-01-01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? Yes	Open	10,466	39¢	-$340	-8%	2027-07-01
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	3,844	10¢	-$361	-97%	2028-11-07
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes	Open	8,398	9¢	-$366	-48%	2027-01-01
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026? Yes	Open	1,392	33¢	-$385	-83%	2026-12-31
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Yes	Open	555	82¢	-$396	-87%	2026-12-31
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Open	55,895	1¢	-$400	-83%	2026-12-31
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	1,172	73¢	-$402	-47%	2026-11-03
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31? Yes	Open	5,920	29¢	-$413	-24%	2026-08-31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No	Open	12,039	34¢	-$415	-10%	2026-12-31
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes	Open	4,914	13¢	-$425	-68%	2026-12-31
Will Click Bishop win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	1,020	50¢	-$462	-91%	2026-11-03
Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	1,150	45¢	-$495	-96%	2026-11-03
Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	1,020	50¢	-$504	-99%	2026-11-03
Will Shelley Hughes win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	1,020	50¢	-$507	-100%	2026-11-03
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	2,500	21¢	-$509	-99%	2026-12-31
Will Lesil McGuire win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	1,020	50¢	-$509	-100%	2026-11-03
Will Jessica Faircloth win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	1,020	50¢	-$509	-100%	2026-11-03
Will Gregg Brelsford win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	1,020	50¢	-$509	-100%	2026-11-03
Will Destry J. Payne Sr. win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	1,020	50¢	-$509	-100%	2026-11-03
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes	Open	9,967	24¢	-$611	-26%	2027-01-01
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes	Open	32,192	2¢	-$625	-97%	2026-08-11
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	2,220	78¢	-$633	-37%	1970-01-01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes	Open	7,500	16¢	-$713	-59%	2026-12-31
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$743	-97%	2028-11-07
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$744	-97%	2028-11-07
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$745	-97%	2028-11-07
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$750	-98%	2028-11-07
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$750	-98%	2028-11-07
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$752	-98%	2028-11-07
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$753	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$755	-99%	2028-11-07
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$755	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$758	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$758	-99%	2028-11-07
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$760	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$761	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$763	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$763	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$763	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$763	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$763	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$763	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$763	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$763	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$763	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$764	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$764	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$764	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$764	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$764	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$764	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$764	-100%	2028-11-07
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,530	50¢	-$764	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	3,154	27¢	-$765	-91%	2028-11-07
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	2,530	31¢	-$771	-98%	2028-11-07
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? No	Open	13,896	31¢	-$791	-19%	2026-08-31
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Yes	Open	5,000	26¢	-$875	-66%	2026-12-31
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	101,418	3¢	-$929	-27%	2028-11-07
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	12,990	8¢	-$996	-96%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No	Open	3,220	82¢	-$1.0K	-39%	1970-01-01
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes	Open	7,500	43¢	-$1.1K	-34%	2026-11-03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	31,634	20¢	-$1.1K	-18%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI	Open	17,032	13¢	-$1.4K	-59%	2027-12-31
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	66,108	23¢	-$2.1K	-14%	1970-01-01
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	15,354	25¢	-$2.4K	-62%	2026-12-31
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes	Open	7,500	40¢	-$2.4K	-81%	2026-12-31
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? Yes	Open	30,068	32¢	-$2.6K	-27%	2026-08-31
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Open	176,570	4¢	-$2.6K	-34%	2026-12-31
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	7,616	38¢	-$2.9K	-99%	2026-12-31
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	11,413	29¢	-$3.2K	-96%	2026-12-31
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes	Open	5,325	87¢	-$3.2K	-69%	2027-01-01
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	7,477	50¢	-$3.7K	-100%	2026-12-31
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	8,188	50¢	-$4.1K	-100%	2026-12-31
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	10,688	38¢	-$4.1K	-100%	2026-12-31
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	9,188	45¢	-$4.1K	-99%	2026-12-31
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	17,944	46¢	-$5.6K	-68%	2028-11-07
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	91,218	7¢	-$6.4K	-96%	2028-11-07
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	25,000	50¢	-$12.4K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	25,000	50¢	-$12.4K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	25,000	50¢	-$12.4K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	25,000	50¢	-$12.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	26,603	49¢	-$12.8K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	296,646	10¢	-$13.8K	-48%	2028-11-07
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes	Open	185,022	23¢	-$15.7K	-37%	2027-01-01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes	Open	117,387	20¢	-$16.0K	-68%	2026-12-31
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	55,157	38¢	-$20.2K	-96%	2028-11-07
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	46,944	50¢	-$23.3K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	63,803	45¢	-$25.0K	-88%	2028-11-07
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	70,074	50¢	-$33.1K	-94%	2028-11-07
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	89,152	40¢	-$34.6K	-98%	2028-11-07
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	70,080	50¢	-$34.6K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	85,839	48¢	-$40.4K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	299,425	17¢	-$44.0K	-87%	2028-11-07
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	93,080	50¢	-$46.3K	-99%	2028-11-07
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	93,080	50¢	-$46.3K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	93,080	50¢	-$46.4K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	93,080	50¢	-$46.4K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	93,080	50¢	-$46.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	93,080	50¢	-$46.5K	-100%	2028-11-07
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	93,080	50¢	-$46.5K	-100%	2028-11-07

Full skill analysis (Edge Score, calibration) →