Wallet ledger

0x7e35…1a6c

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

105

Realized PnL

$5.4K

Win rate

30%

Realized edge

+0.021

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.021 across 105 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.04, +0.09]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (214 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No	Open	11,673	56¢	$3.6K	+55%	2027-01-03
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	22,181	8¢	$1.7K	+92%	2028-11-07
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No	Open	4,359	44¢	$1.7K	+90%	2027-01-01
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	3,832	43¢	$1.4K	+86%	2027-01-01
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	2,866	35¢	$806	+79%	2027-01-01
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? Yes	Open	2,422	40¢	$664	+69%	2026-12-31
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Open	2,082	39¢	$647	+80%	2026-11-30
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	4,355	25¢	$632	+59%	2026-10-04
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No	Open	1,816	55¢	$527	+52%	2027-01-01
Will Taylor Swift be the third most streamed artist for 2026? Yes	Open	2,246	43¢	$449	+47%	2027-01-01
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No	Open	1,892	59¢	$446	+40%	2026-09-06
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026? Yes	Open	4,788	53¢	$415	+16%	2026-12-31
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? Yes	Open	3,189	52¢	$405	+25%	2026-10-26
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes	Open	1,425	58¢	$396	+48%	2026-09-13
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	2,420	41¢	$353	+36%	2026-10-04
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	1,188	31¢	$351	+97%	2026-09-20
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? Yes	Open	2,481	57¢	$339	+24%	2026-12-31
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	1,262	63¢	$284	+36%	2026-10-04
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes	Open	1,044	73¢	$274	+36%	2026-09-01
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,918	7¢	$264	+64%	2028-11-07
Will Daniel Gobeil win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? Yes	Open	497	33¢	$259	+156%	2026-08-31
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Open	808	28¢	$233	+104%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No	Open	2,265	40¢	$215	+24%	1970-01-01
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026? Yes	Open	1,307	64¢	$207	+25%	2026-12-31
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Yes	Open	2,714	9¢	$204	+83%	2026-12-31
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes	Open	716	68¢	$197	+40%	2026-10-04
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election? Yes	Open	711	42¢	$180	+60%	2026-10-04
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30? No	Open	680	59¢	$158	+39%	1970-01-01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Open	2,363	33¢	$151	+19%	2027-01-01
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes	Open	806	32¢	$147	+56%	2026-10-27
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes	Open	1,803	38¢	$142	+21%	2026-10-04
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	1,094	56¢	$140	+23%	2026-09-30
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes	Open	725	29¢	$135	+63%	2027-01-01
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Open	6,222	31¢	$127	+7%	2027-04-30
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	1,575	60¢	$126	+13%	2026-10-04
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No	Open	457	56¢	$126	+49%	2027-01-01
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No	Open	389	57¢	$124	+56%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? No	Open	415	54¢	$114	+51%	2027-01-01
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No	Open	1,106	55¢	$111	+18%	2026-11-03
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	946	56¢	$90	+17%	2026-11-03
Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes	Open	1,943	20¢	$84	+22%	2026-12-31
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	586	13¢	$83	+106%	2026-09-20
Japan recession in 2026? No	Open	250	57¢	$82	+58%	2027-03-31
Dua Lipa pregnant in 2026? No	Open	396	68¢	$77	+28%	2027-01-01
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026? No	Open	334	63¢	$75	+36%	2027-01-01
Will Inde Navarrette be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? Yes	Open	645	26¢	$70	+42%	2026-12-31
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? No	Open	627	66¢	$69	+17%	2027-01-01
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? Yes	Open	1,214	45¢	$69	+13%	2026-11-07
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	15,525	4¢	$68	+11%	2026-09-30
Will Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election? No	Open	158	44¢	$67	+97%	2026-08-31
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026? No	Open	216	50¢	$66	+61%	2026-09-30
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government? No	Open	394	33¢	$60	+46%	1970-01-01
Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	173	58¢	$59	+59%	2027-01-21
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250? No	Open	108	7¢	$59	+779%	2027-03-31
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Open	244	59¢	$56	+39%	2027-01-01
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	16,167	1¢	$56	+26%	2028-11-07
Will the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) be included in the next Romanian government? No	Open	210	42¢	$56	+62%	1970-01-01
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	12,410	5¢	$55	+9%	2028-11-07
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No	Open	101	32¢	$54	+166%	2027-01-01
Will Bryan Paterson win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election? Yes	Open	564	70¢	$50	+13%	2026-10-26
Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	342	66¢	$45	+20%	2026-09-13
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes	Open	150	24¢	$42	+114%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	853	65¢	$40	+7%	1970-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? No	Open	278	67¢	$40	+21%	2027-01-01
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Open	316	60¢	$40	+21%	2027-01-01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No	Open	136	28¢	$39	+104%	2027-01-01
Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election? Yes	Open	237	38¢	$37	+41%	2026-10-26
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? No	Open	596	69¢	$37	+9%	1970-01-01
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Open	379	67¢	$36	+14%	2027-01-01
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes	Open	300	64¢	$36	+19%	2027-01-16
Will France pass a national budget by December 31? No	Open	624	63¢	$34	+9%	2026-12-31
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? No	Open	669	75¢	$33	+7%	2026-10-01
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? No	Open	337	65¢	$31	+14%	2027-01-01
Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	114	21¢	$31	+127%	2027-01-21
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? No	Open	296	32¢	$31	+32%	2026-10-04
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Open	5,829	25¢	$29	+2%	2027-04-30
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	778	72¢	$27	+5%	1970-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	400	47¢	$26	+14%	1970-01-01
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? Yes	Open	590	40¢	$26	+11%	2026-11-07
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No	Open	300	78¢	$26	+11%	1970-01-01
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	221	57¢	$25	+20%	2026-09-20
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No	Open	209	74¢	$24	+15%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	374	44¢	$23	+14%	1970-01-01
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	3,000	2¢	$23	+44%	2028-11-07
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31? No	Open	108	64¢	$22	+32%	2027-01-01
Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	463	84¢	$22	+6%	2026-09-20
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Open	159	63¢	$22	+21%	2027-01-01
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? Yes	Open	30	12¢	$21	+587%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat? Yes	Open	456	27¢	$21	+17%	2026-11-03
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? No	Open	74	72¢	$20	+38%	2026-09-01
Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election? Yes	Open	190	80¢	$20	+13%	2027-06-30
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	100	31¢	$19	+61%	2026-11-03
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? No	Open	211	52¢	$18	+17%	1970-01-01
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	543	27¢	$18	+12%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No	Open	340	50¢	$17	+10%	1970-01-01
Will Lucas Ribeiro win the Governor of Paraíba election? Yes	Open	200	71¢	$16	+11%	2026-10-05
Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government? Yes	Open	140	75¢	$16	+15%	2027-01-31
Will David Almeida win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	200	1¢	$16	+969%	2026-10-04
Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31? No	Open	181	71¢	$15	+12%	2027-01-01
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? No	Open	112	75¢	$15	+18%	2027-01-01
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the #2 song for 2026? Yes	Open	1,615	20¢	$14	+4%	2026-12-31
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? No	Open	84	72¢	$14	+24%	2027-01-01
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? No	Open	109	74¢	$13	+17%	2026-10-01
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? No	Open	205	73¢	$13	+8%	2027-01-01
Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026? No	Open	186	73¢	$12	+9%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	200	53¢	$12	+11%	1970-01-01
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2027? No	Open	223	41¢	$12	+13%	2027-07-01
Colorado passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access? Yes	Open	200	51¢	$10	+10%	2026-11-03
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? Yes	Open	30	44¢	$9	+69%	2026-09-08
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026? No	Open	82	77¢	$9	+14%	1970-01-01
Will Marianne Meed Ward win the 2026 Burlington mayoral election? Yes	Open	192	62¢	$9	+7%	2026-10-26
Will "Michael" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	94	78¢	$8	+11%	2027-01-21
Will Professora Dorinha win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election? No	Open	76	36¢	$8	+29%	2026-10-04
Will Stephanie Allen win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes	Open	587	0¢	$8	+675%	2026-10-17
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No	Open	100	47¢	$7	+14%	1970-01-01
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by December 31? No	Open	100	27¢	$7	+24%	2027-01-01
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	347	27¢	$6	+7%	2027-01-01
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	935	54¢	$5	+1%	1970-01-01
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by December 31? No	Open	209	34¢	$5	+7%	1970-01-01
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? Yes	Open	20	55¢	$5	+43%	2027-12-31
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat? Yes	Open	299	40¢	$4	+4%	2026-11-04
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	222	10¢	$4	+18%	2027-01-01
Will "The Drama" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	12	58¢	$4	+58%	2027-01-21
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No	Open	27	69¢	$4	+21%	2027-01-01
Will "All of a Sudden" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	20	18¢	$3	+94%	2027-01-21
Will JHC win the 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	100	58¢	$3	+5%	2026-10-04
Will Álvaro Dias win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	31	5¢	$3	+190%	2026-10-04
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	18,333	1¢	$3	+3%	2028-11-07
Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	49	34¢	$3	+16%	2026-10-04
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? No	Open	16	76¢	$2	+18%	2026-10-01
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No	Open	200	29¢	$2	+3%	2026-11-03
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	46	28¢	$2	+13%	2026-10-04
Will "Dune: Messiah" make it into the IMDb Top 250? No	Open	105	5¢	$2	+31%	2027-03-31
Will "Fatherland" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	100	13¢	$1	+11%	2027-01-21
Will Jim Diodati win the 2026 Niagara Falls mayoral election? Yes	Open	193	83¢	$1	+1%	2026-10-26
Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat? No	Open	136	83¢	$1	+1%	2026-11-03
Will "Fjord" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	5	52¢	$1	+22%	2027-01-21
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? Yes	Open	406	41¢	$0	+0%	2026-10-05
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	848	26¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-30
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	500	2¢	-$0	-2%	2028-11-07
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No	Open	20	22¢	-$1	-11%	1970-01-01
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Yes	Open	112	7¢	-$1	-9%	2026-12-31
Will Risk It All – Bruno Mars be the top song for 2026? Yes	Open	106	1¢	-$1	-55%	2026-12-31
Will Drop Dead – Olivia Rodrigo be the top song for 2026? Yes	Open	78	2¢	-$1	-80%	2026-12-31
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election? No	Open	100	42¢	-$1	-2%	2026-10-05
António Guterres out by December 31? No	Open	286	59¢	-$1	-1%	2026-12-31
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat? Yes	Open	278	84¢	-$1	-1%	2026-11-03
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? No	Open	100	57¢	-$2	-3%	2027-01-01
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	1,000	1¢	-$2	-11%	2026-09-30
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	59	3¢	-$2	-98%	2026-09-30
Will Billie Jean – Michael Jackson be the top song for 2026? Yes	Open	61	3¢	-$2	-98%	2026-12-31
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? No	Open	100	76¢	-$2	-3%	2027-01-01
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Open	1,294	1¢	-$2	-21%	2027-01-01
Will hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande be the top song for 2026? Yes	Open	30	8¢	-$2	-93%	2026-12-31
Will Stateside – PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson be the top song for 2026? Yes	Open	97	3¢	-$3	-98%	2026-12-31
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by October 31? No	Open	228	35¢	-$3	-4%	1970-01-01
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the top song for 2026? Yes	Open	73	5¢	-$3	-99%	2026-12-31
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Open	370	1¢	-$4	-95%	2026-11-03
Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes	Open	500	9¢	-$5	-11%	2027-03-14
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No	Open	2,047	36¢	-$5	-1%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	300	41¢	-$5	-4%	1970-01-01
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	1,350	45¢	-$6	-1%	2027-03-14
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	445	2¢	-$7	-97%	2026-10-04
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Open	691	2¢	-$8	-68%	2027-01-01
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	1,000	11¢	-$9	-8%	2028-11-07
Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes	Open	356	4¢	-$9	-67%	2026-10-17
Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026? Yes	Open	1,417	18¢	-$9	-4%	2026-12-31
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Open	1,016	1¢	-$10	-86%	2027-04-30
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	359	3¢	-$10	-95%	2026-09-30
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026? Yes	Open	120	18¢	-$13	-60%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No	Open	608	42¢	-$13	-5%	1970-01-01
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes	Open	440	3¢	-$13	-98%	2026-10-05
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? Yes	Open	100	66¢	-$14	-20%	2027-01-31
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	1,359	1¢	-$14	-87%	2026-09-30
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes	Open	402	57¢	-$16	-7%	2026-08-18
Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31? No	Open	323	71¢	-$16	-7%	2027-01-01
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? No	Open	276	15¢	-$22	-51%	1970-01-01
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Open	355	6¢	-$22	-98%	2026-11-30
Will Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? Yes	Open	100	33¢	-$23	-70%	2026-12-31
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? Yes	Open	300	15¢	-$25	-54%	1970-01-01
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes	Open	669	13¢	-$26	-31%	2027-01-01
Will Tom Sherman win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes	Open	205	17¢	-$32	-93%	2026-09-08
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	7,143	1¢	-$32	-64%	2028-11-07
Will Taylor Swift be the second most streamed artist for 2026? Yes	Open	527	20¢	-$34	-33%	2027-01-01
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes	Open	465	8¢	-$37	-99%	2026-11-03
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion? Yes	Open	400	54¢	-$38	-17%	2026-11-03
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes	Open	315	48¢	-$38	-25%	2026-08-18
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	1,559	3¢	-$42	-91%	2026-09-30
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Yes	Open	100	52¢	-$51	-99%	2026-08-30
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No	Open	1,212	74¢	-$52	-6%	1970-01-01
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Open	16,724	50¢	-$55	-1%	2026-12-31
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No	Open	515	22¢	-$58	-52%	2027-01-01
Will Wellington Fagundes win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election? Yes	Open	543	71¢	-$66	-17%	2026-10-04
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No	Open	400	63¢	-$82	-33%	2026-09-16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes	Open	400	62¢	-$82	-33%	2026-09-16
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? No	Open	1,941	22¢	-$88	-20%	2027-01-01
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes	Open	1,377	37¢	-$91	-18%	2026-11-03
Will Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? Yes	Open	405	32¢	-$92	-72%	2026-12-31
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes	Open	598	20¢	-$93	-77%	2026-10-05
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes	Open	8,248	35¢	-$97	-3%	2027-01-01
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Yes	Open	1,755	28¢	-$100	-21%	1970-01-01
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes	Open	1,100	25¢	-$132	-48%	2027-01-01
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? No	Open	949	63¢	-$150	-25%	2026-12-31
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government? Yes	Open	735	59¢	-$170	-39%	1970-01-01
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? Yes	Open	1,072	52¢	-$172	-31%	2027-01-01
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 150m by August 31? Yes	Open	1,780	12¢	-$208	-96%	2026-09-01
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	778	43¢	-$269	-80%	2027-01-01
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes	Open	2,054	43¢	-$276	-31%	2026-11-03
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	27,701	2¢	-$313	-67%	2028-11-07
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? Yes	Open	4,495	28¢	-$330	-26%	2026-12-31
Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes	Open	1,692	27¢	-$374	-82%	2026-10-17
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes	Open	1,809	36¢	-$633	-96%	2026-11-03
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No	Open	4,910	20¢	-$926	-94%	2027-01-01
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Open	5,260	25¢	-$1.2K	-90%	2027-04-30

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