Wallet ledger

0x38f5…6824

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

451

Realized PnL

$9.5K

Win rate

53%

Realized edge

+0.023

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.023 across 451 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.01, +0.05]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (214 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	30,000	50¢	$8.0K	+53%	2028-11-07
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes	Open	3,107	30¢	$380	+40%	2026-09-20
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? No	Open	843	13¢	$334	+306%	2026-08-24
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	27,971	4¢	$289	+23%	2026-09-30
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	4,625	4¢	$249	+136%	2026-09-20
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No	Open	2,000	86¢	$170	+10%	2027-01-01
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? No	Open	813	72¢	$112	+19%	2026-12-31
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15? Yes	Open	1,832	74¢	$112	+8%	2026-09-16
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No	Open	4,000	90¢	$110	+3%	2027-01-01
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before September 1, 2026? Yes	Open	908	81¢	$109	+15%	2026-09-01
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August 2026? Yes	Open	1,209	8¢	$104	+104%	2026-08-31
Will "Blue" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? Yes	Open	447	53¢	$100	+42%	2026-08-30
Will Mamdani say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during his announcement? No	Open	239	26¢	$87	+140%	2026-08-31
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	1,999	29¢	$85	+15%	2026-10-04
Will Trump praise Mark Rutte in August? No	Open	290	49¢	$82	+58%	2026-08-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by August 31, 2026? No	Open	181	30¢	$81	+150%	2026-08-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No	Open	500	54¢	$67	+25%	2026-12-31
Will Mamdani say "Family" during his announcement? No	Open	199	39¢	$64	+82%	2026-08-31
Linera listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	180	24¢	$62	+142%	2028-02-01
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	141	45¢	$45	+71%	2026-11-01
Will Warsh say "Challenge" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? Yes	Open	326	57¢	$42	+23%	2026-08-28
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Japan by August 31? Yes	Open	80	48¢	$36	+95%	2026-09-03
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the United States by August 31? No	Open	510	77¢	$35	+9%	2026-09-03
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 30, 2026? No	Open	733	12¢	$34	+38%	2026-08-31
Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 31? Yes	Open	278	12¢	$33	+98%	2026-09-01
Will Trump post "Investigation" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Open	221	50¢	$33	+30%	2026-08-30
Will "Japan" be in the headlines this week? No	Open	235	54¢	$32	+25%	2026-08-30
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by August 31, 2026? No	Open	319	83¢	$32	+12%	2026-08-31
Will Trump post "Scam" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Open	150	60¢	$29	+33%	2026-08-30
Will "Japan" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No	Open	162	45¢	$29	+40%	2026-08-26
Will Trump post "Communist" or "Communism" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Open	191	77¢	$28	+19%	2026-08-30
Will "Hot" or "Heat" be in the headlines this week? Yes	Open	299	46¢	$28	+20%	2026-08-30
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the Philippines by August 31? Yes	Open	655	28¢	$27	+15%	2026-09-03
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	153	16¢	$27	+109%	2026-12-31
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? No	Open	555	77¢	$25	+6%	2026-09-20
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by August 31, 2026? No	Open	360	85¢	$25	+8%	2026-08-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by August 31, 2026? No	Open	2,469	98¢	$23	+1%	2026-08-31
OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026? Yes	Open	132	11¢	$21	+145%	2026-12-31
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 17, 2026? No	Open	49	58¢	$20	+70%	2026-08-17
Linera listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	158	31¢	$20	+40%	2028-02-01
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	44	54¢	$19	+81%	2026-08-31
Will Mamdani say "Economy" or "Economic" during his announcement? No	Open	82	48¢	$19	+48%	2026-08-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by August 31, 2026? No	Open	350	94¢	$18	+5%	2026-08-31
Will "Party" be in the headlines this week? Yes	Open	64	41¢	$17	+64%	2026-08-30
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Yes	Open	530	57¢	$16	+5%	2026-09-20
Will "Earthquake" or "Quake" be in the headlines this week? No	Open	453	62¢	$15	+5%	2026-08-30
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	407	89¢	$14	+4%	2026-08-29
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	75	80¢	$14	+23%	2026-08-31
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 24, 2026? Yes	Open	441	18¢	$13	+17%	2026-08-24
Will Mamdani say "NYPD" during his announcement? Yes	Open	375	38¢	$13	+9%	2026-08-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 25, 2026? No	Open	858	10¢	$13	+15%	2026-08-26
Will "World Cup" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? No	Open	110	82¢	$12	+13%	2026-08-30
Will Trump say "Human Printer" this week? No	Open	163	83¢	$12	+9%	2026-08-30
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,945	0¢	$11	+119%	2026-09-30
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? No	Open	500	5¢	$11	+42%	2026-08-31
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Yes	Open	100	59¢	$10	+17%	2026-08-26
Will "Woman" be in the headlines this week? No	Open	186	61¢	$9	+8%	2026-08-30
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes	Open	104	22¢	$9	+41%	2027-12-31
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 30, 2026? Yes	Open	257	8¢	$9	+45%	2026-08-31
Will three people dissent the January Fed decision? Yes	Open	85	14¢	$9	+75%	2027-01-27
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by August 31, 2026? No	Open	118	65¢	$9	+11%	2026-08-31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? Yes	Open	682	5¢	$9	+27%	2026-09-01
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? No	Open	74	39¢	$8	+28%	2026-08-30
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	411	9¢	$8	+22%	2026-09-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by August 31, 2026? No	Open	272	94¢	$8	+3%	2026-08-31
Will Mamdani say "Budget" during his announcement? Yes	Open	20	18¢	$8	+214%	2026-08-31
Will Darline Graham win at least 55% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff? Yes	Open	121	46¢	$8	+14%	2026-08-25
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by August 31, 2026? No	Open	60	72¢	$8	+17%	2026-08-31
Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No	Open	264	38¢	$7	+7%	2026-08-26
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30? No	Open	205	50¢	$7	+7%	2026-09-30
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 23, 2026? No	Open	57	86¢	$6	+13%	2026-08-23
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by August 31, 2026? No	Open	27	74¢	$6	+32%	2026-08-31
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Mexico by August 31? No	Open	41	75¢	$6	+19%	2026-09-03
Will "SpaceX" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? No	Open	31	74¢	$6	+25%	2026-08-30
Will Mamdani say "Heat" or "Weather" during his announcement? Yes	Open	137	22¢	$5	+16%	2026-08-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	123	87¢	$5	+4%	2026-09-01
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	311	10¢	$5	+15%	2026-08-31
Will Trump post "Russia" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Open	53	63¢	$4	+13%	2026-08-30
Will "Fear" be in the headlines this week? Yes	Open	165	71¢	$4	+4%	2026-08-30
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? Yes	Open	260	12¢	$4	+13%	2026-08-30
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 24, 2026? Yes	Open	65	88¢	$4	+7%	2026-08-25
Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026? Yes	Open	130	7¢	$4	+38%	2026-12-31
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? No	Open	89	95¢	$4	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? No	Open	163	4¢	$4	+58%	2027-07-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by August 31, 2026? No	Open	40	90¢	$4	+10%	2026-08-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 27, 2026? No	Open	750	9¢	$3	+5%	2026-08-28
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August 2026? Yes	Open	387	0¢	$3	+341%	2026-08-31
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	15	84¢	$2	+18%	2026-09-20
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? Yes	Open	567	97¢	$2	+0%	2026-08-30
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30? Yes	Open	26	19¢	$2	+48%	2026-09-30
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week? No	Open	18	7¢	$2	+179%	2026-08-30
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Yes	Open	400	8¢	$2	+6%	2027-01-01
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	9	7¢	$2	+271%	2026-10-31
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes	Open	158	34¢	$2	+3%	2026-12-31
Extended listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	105	47¢	$2	+3%	2028-02-01
Will Trump say "Gaza" in August? No	Open	66	59¢	$2	+4%	2026-08-31
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T? Yes	Open	130	4¢	$1	+30%	2027-07-01
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026? No	Open	10	86¢	$1	+15%	2026-08-22
Will Darline Graham win at least 50% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff? Yes	Open	13	59¢	$1	+14%	2026-08-25
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 26, 2026? No	Open	7	68¢	$1	+23%	2026-08-26
Will "Tesla" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? No	Open	107	83¢	$1	+1%	2026-08-30
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 22, 2026? No	Open	46	92¢	$1	+2%	2026-08-22
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No	Open	6	71¢	$1	+20%	2026-12-31
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 25, 2026? No	Open	25	58¢	$1	+5%	2026-08-25
Will Mamdani say "Health" during his announcement? Yes	Open	282	53¢	$1	+0%	2026-08-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by August 31, 2026? No	Open	28	96¢	$1	+3%	2026-08-31
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 27, 2026? Yes	Open	25	12¢	$1	+21%	2026-08-27
Will Trump praise Nicki Minaj in August? No	Open	20	77¢	$1	+4%	2026-08-31
Will four or more people dissent the January Fed decision? Yes	Open	5	4¢	$1	+298%	2027-01-27
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T? Yes	Open	20	3¢	$1	+88%	2027-07-01
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? Yes	Open	5	4¢	$0	+38%	2027-07-01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	19	6¢	-$0	-7%	2026-12-31
Will "New Religion - Bebe Rexha & Faithless" be the song of the summer? Yes	Open	151	1¢	-$0	-8%	2026-09-01
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Open	70	91¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-30
Will Darline Graham win at least 65% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff? Yes	Open	39	4¢	-$0	-13%	2026-08-25
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Chile by August 31? No	Open	60	77¢	-$0	-0%	2026-09-03
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes	Open	55	25¢	-$0	-2%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by August 31, 2026? No	Open	33	96¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-31
Will "Blue" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No	Open	80	46¢	-$0	-1%	2026-08-26
Will Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 58m by August 31? Yes	Open	374	3¢	-$0	-4%	2026-08-31
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes	Open	1,096	0¢	-$1	-17%	2026-12-31
Extended listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	89	45¢	-$1	-1%	2028-02-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	331	1¢	-$1	-19%	2026-09-30
Will Trump post "Allah" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Open	63	25¢	-$1	-4%	2026-08-30
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	171	91¢	-$1	-0%	2026-09-20
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026? No	Open	410	10¢	-$1	-2%	2026-08-30
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Open	20	4¢	-$1	-97%	2026-12-31
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No	Open	70	67¢	-$1	-2%	2026-09-06
Houthis successfully target shipping by September 30, 2026? No	Open	5	48¢	-$1	-49%	2026-09-30
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in August 2026? Yes	Open	110	3¢	-$1	-37%	2026-08-31
Will two people dissent the January Fed decision? Yes	Open	45	23¢	-$1	-13%	2027-01-27
Will Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his announcement? Yes	Open	78	17¢	-$2	-12%	2026-08-31
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Yes	Open	191	25¢	-$2	-3%	2026-12-31
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Yes	Open	3,616	0¢	-$2	-25%	2026-12-31
Will Byron Donalds win at least 40% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? No	Open	33	8¢	-$2	-69%	2026-08-18
Will no Lemonade Stand episode air? No	Open	69	99¢	-$2	-3%	2026-08-26
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026? Yes	Open	481	8¢	-$2	-5%	2026-08-30
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes	Open	1,500	4¢	-$2	-4%	2026-12-31
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	338	12¢	-$2	-6%	2026-08-28
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.6–0.8%? Yes	Open	925	1¢	-$3	-55%	2026-08-12
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	28	36¢	-$3	-30%	2027-01-01
Will Pat McFadden be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet? Yes	Open	40	9¢	-$3	-88%	2027-12-31
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? Yes	Open	333	34¢	-$3	-3%	2026-09-01
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 18, 2026? No	Open	42	90¢	-$4	-9%	2026-08-18
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? Yes	Open	247	7¢	-$4	-21%	2026-08-26
Will Mamdani say "School" during his announcement? Yes	Open	84	54¢	-$4	-8%	2026-08-31
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 15 minutes long? No	Open	74	19¢	-$4	-29%	2026-08-27
Will Byron Donalds win at least 45% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? No	Open	51	11¢	-$4	-78%	2026-08-18
Will "Spain" be in the headlines this week? No	Open	93	79¢	-$5	-7%	2026-08-30
Will Mamdani say "Grocery" during his announcement? Yes	Open	62	25¢	-$5	-33%	2026-08-31
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August 2026? Yes	Open	1,171	1¢	-$5	-39%	2026-08-31
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 29, 2026? Yes	Open	204	12¢	-$6	-22%	2026-08-29
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	257	27¢	-$6	-8%	2027-01-01
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	113	7¢	-$6	-73%	2026-09-30
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Open	220	64¢	-$6	-4%	2026-08-30
Will Mamdani say "Community" during his announcement? No	Open	225	52¢	-$6	-5%	2026-08-31
NVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	251	85¢	-$6	-3%	2027-01-01
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Mexico" in August? Yes	Open	40	45¢	-$7	-40%	2026-08-31
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	61	47¢	-$9	-30%	2026-12-31
Will "Red" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? No	Open	147	28¢	-$9	-21%	2026-08-30
Will "Left" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? Yes	Open	447	97¢	-$9	-2%	2026-08-30
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 21, 2026? Yes	Open	63	16¢	-$10	-97%	2026-08-22
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	407	9¢	-$10	-28%	2026-08-29
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes	Open	999	21¢	-$12	-6%	2026-12-31
Will Trump praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August? Yes	Open	40	57¢	-$13	-58%	2026-08-31
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Yes	Open	992	6¢	-$14	-24%	2026-12-31
Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	112	20¢	-$14	-65%	2026-12-31
Will "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" be in the headlines this week? No	Open	221	20¢	-$15	-35%	2026-08-30
Brazil bans Discord by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	40	45¢	-$17	-93%	2026-09-01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by August 31, 2026? No	Open	451	82¢	-$20	-5%	2026-08-31
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 27, 2026? Yes	Open	582	9¢	-$21	-42%	2026-08-28
Will Trump post "Putin" on Truth Social this week? Yes	Open	192	23¢	-$22	-49%	2026-08-23
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026? Yes	Open	1,053	4¢	-$23	-56%	2026-11-01
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 23, 2026? Yes	Open	265	12¢	-$25	-80%	2026-08-24
Cambria listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	402	27¢	-$25	-23%	2028-02-01
Will Trump praise Claudia Sheinbaum in August? Yes	Open	173	50¢	-$26	-30%	2026-08-31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	2,553	6¢	-$28	-19%	2026-09-30
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? Yes	Open	346	43¢	-$28	-19%	2026-08-30
Over $8M committed to the Multipli public sale? Yes	Open	146	20¢	-$28	-97%	2026-09-01
Next White House Press Secretary announced by August 28, 2026? Yes	Open	865	15¢	-$29	-23%	2026-08-29
Cambria listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	368	27¢	-$30	-31%	2028-02-01
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	1,668	18¢	-$31	-10%	2026-09-20
Over $4M committed to the Multipli public sale? Yes	Open	122	29¢	-$31	-86%	2026-09-01
Will "Oil," "Gas," or "Gasoline" be in the headlines this week? No	Open	159	21¢	-$33	-100%	2026-08-30
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	2,350	5¢	-$34	-28%	2028-11-07
Will Mamdani say "Safe" or "Safer" or "Safety" during his announcement? Yes	Open	236	69¢	-$34	-21%	2026-08-31
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? Yes	Open	2,098	88¢	-$34	-2%	2026-10-01
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? Yes	Open	555	9¢	-$36	-72%	2026-09-01
Will Trump say "Soaking Wet" in August? Yes	Open	1,119	28¢	-$39	-13%	2026-08-31
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long? No	Open	641	11¢	-$43	-61%	2026-08-27
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22? No	Open	918	5¢	-$45	-99%	2026-08-22
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	789	8¢	-$51	-81%	2026-08-31
Over $3M committed to the Multipli public sale? Yes	Open	155	40¢	-$53	-86%	2026-09-01
Will Mamdani say "Trump" or "President" during his announcement? Yes	Open	242	62¢	-$53	-35%	2026-08-31
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August 2026? Yes	Open	1,743	6¢	-$58	-58%	2026-08-31
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,272	6¢	-$59	-77%	2026-10-01
Over $6M committed to the Multipli public sale? Yes	Open	436	18¢	-$62	-78%	2026-09-01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes	Open	600	39¢	-$66	-28%	2027-01-01
Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in August? Yes	Open	228	44¢	-$73	-73%	2026-08-31
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes	Open	4,050	23¢	-$75	-8%	2026-09-20
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,362	8¢	-$79	-72%	2026-09-30
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,022	31¢	-$79	-25%	2026-08-31
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	50,164	0¢	-$80	-39%	2026-09-30
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	17,596	2¢	-$92	-30%	2026-09-30
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026? Yes	Open	693	48¢	-$115	-35%	2026-09-12
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,714	9¢	-$119	-77%	2026-10-31
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,020	14¢	-$127	-92%	2026-08-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? Yes	Open	1,111	13¢	-$141	-97%	2026-09-01
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in August? Yes	Open	613	30¢	-$146	-79%	2026-08-31
Over $10M committed to the Multipli public sale? Yes	Open	1,988	11¢	-$225	-99%	2026-09-01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	8,288	13¢	-$250	-24%	2027-01-01
Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August? Yes	Open	1,725	72¢	-$307	-25%	2026-08-31
Over $2M committed to the Multipli public sale? Yes	Open	1,298	41¢	-$400	-75%	2026-09-01
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	30,000	50¢	-$8.0K	-53%	2028-11-07

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