ConvexlyOpen in Convexly

Wallet ledger

0x355e…a038

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

No resolved record on file for this wallet yet.

The resolved record (positions, realized PnL, win rate, realized edge) is reconstructed by the analyzer. This wallet has not been analyzed yet, so there is nothing to show here. Run it through the analyzer and this tab fills in afterward.

Run the analyzer to see this wallet's resolved record →

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (121 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
No
Open3,55667¢$509+21%2027-01-01
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No
Open1,75349¢$449+52%2026-12-31
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No
Open1,30747¢$384+63%2026-12-31
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?
No
Open34663¢$112+51%2026-09-01
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
No
Open2,13880¢$110+6%2026-12-31
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?
No
Open1,75186¢$103+7%2026-12-31
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?
No
Open76776¢$90+15%2026-12-31
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No
Open44352¢$82+36%2026-12-31
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
No
Open51475¢$81+21%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
No
Open86487¢$72+10%2026-12-31
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No
Open43564¢$72+26%2026-12-31
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?
No
Open1,40493¢$69+5%2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
No
Open50680¢$67+17%2026-12-31
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
No
Open40081¢$62+19%2027-01-01
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
No
Open59071¢$57+14%2026-12-31
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?
No
Open53077¢$54+13%2026-12-31
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
No
Open94077¢$52+7%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
No
Open63466¢$51+12%2026-12-31
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by August 31, 2026?
No
Open41069¢$48+17%2026-09-01
Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
No
Open1,38490¢$46+4%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
Yes
Open37546¢$44+26%2026-12-31
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No
Open75769¢$43+8%2026-12-31
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in September?
Yes
Open49668¢$42+12%2026-09-30
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No
Open65387¢$40+7%2026-12-31
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No
Open53871¢$34+9%2026-12-31
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
No
Open23679¢$34+18%2026-12-31
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15?
No
Open49716¢$32+41%2026-09-16
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No
Open35575¢$30+11%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
No
Open30345¢$29+21%2026-12-31
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No
Open20079¢$29+18%2026-12-31
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by December 31?
No
Open34177¢$28+11%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
No
Open44085¢$28+8%2026-12-31
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by December 31?
No
Open7015¢$27+257%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
No
Open38786¢$27+8%2026-12-31
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?
No
Open87672¢$26+4%2027-01-01
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No
Open48989¢$24+6%2026-12-31
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
No
Open77285¢$24+4%2026-12-31
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in September?
Yes
Open26971¢$23+12%2026-09-30
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?
No
Open20983¢$23+13%2026-10-31
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September?
No
Open44636¢$22+14%2026-09-30
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?
No
Open50489¢$22+5%2026-12-31
North Korea x South Korea diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
No
Open8644¢$21+56%2026-12-31
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31?
No
Open24583¢$20+10%2026-12-31
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?
No
Open30885¢$18+7%2026-12-31
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No
Open91091¢$18+2%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
No
Open20686¢$17+9%2026-12-31
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton engaged in 2026?
No
Open12379¢$17+17%2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?
No
Open24588¢$16+7%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
No
Open12583¢$15+14%2026-12-31
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
No
Open9178¢$15+21%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
No
Open62481¢$14+3%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
No
Open37565¢$12+5%2026-12-31
Next Meta Muse Spark (1.3+) released by August 31, 2026?
No
Open8581¢$12+17%2026-09-01
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?
No
Open17488¢$11+7%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
No
Open14378¢$11+10%2026-12-31
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 31?
No
Open9059¢$10+19%2026-09-06
Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by September 30?
No
Open17968¢$10+8%2026-10-01
Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026?
No
Open13172¢$8+9%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
No
Open7474¢$7+12%2026-12-31
Trump out as President before 2027?
No
Open40092¢$6+2%2026-12-31
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
No
Open9182¢$6+8%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?
No
Open12786¢$6+5%2026-12-31
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in September?
Yes
Open17676¢$6+4%2026-09-30
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
No
Open25692¢$5+2%2026-12-31
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?
No
Open9694¢$4+4%2026-10-01
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
No
Open27490¢$4+1%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
No
Open2258¢$3+22%2026-12-31
Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on August 31?
Yes
Open3588¢$3+8%2026-09-01
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
No
Open1972¢$2+16%2027-01-01
Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026?
No
Open2181¢$2+10%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
No
Open61138¢$1+1%2026-12-31
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez in August?
No
Open524¢$1+106%2026-08-31
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
No
Open350¢$1+67%2026-03-31
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?
No
Open4993¢$1+2%2026-12-31
Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
No
Open981¢$1+11%2026-12-31
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by August 31, 2026?
No
Open484¢$0+13%2026-09-01
Will Donald Trump visit Oman in 2026?
No
Open3085¢$0+2%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
No
Open3040¢$0+4%2026-12-31
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30?
No
Open65¢$0+138%2026-10-01
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?
No
Open568¢$0+4%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
No
Open563¢$0+3%2026-12-31
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?
No
Open290¢$0+2%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher?
No
Open5194¢-$0-0%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
Yes
Open375¢-$0-4%2026-12-31
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 31?
No
Open1489¢-$0-1%2026-09-06
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?
Yes
Open251¢-$0-25%2026-12-31
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
Yes
Open335¢-$1-99%2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?
No
Open3096¢-$1-3%2026-12-31
Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 31?
No
Open6489¢-$1-2%2026-09-06
Will Trump say "Moscow" in August?
Yes
Open537¢-$1-57%2026-08-31
Will Trump say "Death to America" in August?
Yes
Open530¢-$1-80%2026-08-31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
No
Open2370¢-$1-8%2026-12-09
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?
No
Open4563¢-$2-5%2026-12-31
Will Warsh say "Trump" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
Yes
Open606¢-$2-44%2026-08-28
Will Trump say "State of the Art" in August?
Yes
Open1036¢-$2-63%2026-08-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?
Yes
Open2306¢-$2-17%2027-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
No
Open40365¢-$2-1%2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?
Yes
Open2106¢-$6-49%2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in June 2027 (ET)?
Yes
Open1306¢-$7-95%2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2027 (ET)?
Yes
Open2106¢-$12-93%2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in July 2027 (ET)?
Yes
Open2106¢-$12-93%2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in August 2027 (ET)?
Yes
Open2106¢-$12-93%2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2027 (ET)?
Yes
Open2106¢-$12-93%2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in April 2027 (ET)?
Yes
Open2106¢-$12-95%2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2027 (ET)?
Yes
Open2106¢-$12-95%2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in May 2027 (ET)?
Yes
Open2106¢-$12-95%2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in February 2027 (ET)?
Yes
Open2306¢-$13-95%2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in March 2027 (ET)?
Yes
Open2306¢-$13-95%2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2027 (ET)?
Yes
Open2306¢-$13-95%2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in January 2027 (ET)?
Yes
Open2306¢-$13-95%2027-12-31
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by August 31, 2026?
No
Open9188¢-$17-21%2026-09-01
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by September 30, 2026?
No
Open2,37043¢-$22-2%2026-10-01
Will Trump praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?
Yes
Open9997¢-$28-29%2026-09-30
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?
No
Open40033¢-$37-28%2026-09-09
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?
No
Open65329¢-$38-20%2026-09-15
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027?
Yes
Open9450¢-$47-99%2026-12-31
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
No
Open1,04274¢-$57-7%2026-10-01
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?
Yes
Open16543¢-$62-87%2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
No
Open83739¢-$103-32%2026-12-31
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
No
Open2,14964¢-$244-18%2026-08-31
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
No
Open2,12355¢-$882-75%2026-12-31

Full skill analysis (Edge Score, calibration) →