Wallet ledger

0x30f9…fbfc

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

$5.9K

Win rate

29%

Realized edge

+0.051

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.051 across 17 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.11, +0.27]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (126 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	23,357	1¢	$487	+313%	2028-11-07
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	7,715	1¢	$263	+405%	2026-08-31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No	Open	282	41¢	$120	+104%	2026-12-31
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	660	40¢	$88	+33%	2026-10-01
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No	Open	316	70¢	$72	+33%	2026-12-31
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No	Open	145	50¢	$62	+85%	2026-12-31
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No	Open	111	59¢	$44	+67%	2025-12-31
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No	Open	112	49¢	$39	+71%	2026-12-31
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	16,034	0¢	$33	+104%	2026-08-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No	Open	60	13¢	$33	+406%	2026-12-31
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	756	9¢	$29	+45%	2026-09-30
US military draft authorized in 2026? No	Open	192	80¢	$29	+19%	2026-12-31
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No	Open	96	53¢	$29	+57%	2027-01-01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No	Open	131	76¢	$26	+26%	2027-01-01
Will Bytedance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	5,887	0¢	$23	+229%	2026-08-31
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No	Open	141	73¢	$22	+22%	2026-12-31
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No	Open	69	66¢	$20	+45%	2026-12-31
Will US annex any territory in 2026? No	Open	152	80¢	$20	+17%	2026-12-31
Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	256	1¢	$20	+1308%	2026-09-30
Iran Nuke before 2027? No	Open	64	64¢	$20	+48%	2026-12-31
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	598	0¢	$19	+886%	2026-09-30
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes	Open	5,985	1¢	$18	+29%	2028-11-07
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? No	Open	36	57¢	$13	+65%	2027-01-01
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No	Open	34	53¢	$13	+71%	2026-12-31
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Open	96	84¢	$12	+15%	2027-01-01
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	6,408	0¢	$11	+104%	2026-08-31
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No	Open	110	88¢	$11	+11%	2026-10-10
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No	Open	52	77¢	$9	+23%	2027-01-01
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No	Open	36	72¢	$9	+34%	2026-12-31
China coup attempt before 2027? No	Open	69	85¢	$8	+13%	2026-12-31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No	Open	14	39¢	$8	+138%	2027-01-01
AI bubble burst in 2026? No	Open	29	63¢	$7	+39%	2027-01-01
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No	Open	48	82¢	$7	+18%	2026-12-31
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027? No	Open	31	72¢	$6	+29%	2026-12-31
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026? No	Open	25	75¢	$6	+33%	2026-09-01
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No	Open	48	83¢	$6	+15%	2026-12-31
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Yes	Open	492	3¢	$6	+36%	2026-10-01
Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,218	0¢	$6	+500%	2026-08-31
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026? Yes	Open	32	72¢	$6	+26%	2027-01-01
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? Yes	Open	64	30¢	$6	+30%	2027-01-01
Will Hyperliquid introduce KYC by September 30, 2026? No	Open	22	74¢	$5	+32%	2026-10-01
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No	Open	12	54¢	$5	+76%	2027-01-01
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto Nothing	Open	27	80¢	$4	+20%	2026-12-31
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No	Open	23	77¢	$4	+24%	2026-12-31
Will Hyperliquid introduce KYC by December 31, 2026? No	Open	14	64¢	$2	+26%	2027-01-01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No	Open	17	81¢	$2	+15%	2026-12-31
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	6,808	0¢	$2	+9%	2026-08-31
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No	Open	48	48¢	$2	+7%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Yes	Open	40	5¢	$2	+88%	2027-01-01
Will Hyperliquid introduce KYC by March 31, 2027? No	Open	12	48¢	$2	+28%	2027-04-01
Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	789	0¢	$2	+47%	2026-08-31
Nick Fuentes federally charged? No	Open	16	90¢	$1	+10%	2026-09-30
Is Earth flat? No	Open	64	97¢	$1	+2%	2027-01-01
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	3,584	0¢	$1	+12%	2026-08-31
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	256	1¢	$1	+75%	2026-08-31
Russia coup attempt in 2026? No	Open	8	80¢	$1	+17%	2026-12-31
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	305	0¢	$1	+351%	2026-08-31
Will Hyperliquid introduce KYC by June 30, 2027? No	Open	6	48¢	$1	+27%	2027-07-01
Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,463	0¢	$1	+53%	2026-08-31
Will Z.ai be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	310	1¢	$1	+39%	2026-08-31
Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	431	0¢	$1	+150%	2026-09-30
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	169	0¢	$1	+350%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	468	0¢	$1	+26%	2026-08-31
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No	Open	8	90¢	$1	+7%	2026-12-31
Will Hyperliquid introduce KYC by December 31, 2027? No	Open	2	32¢	$0	+92%	2028-01-01
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	Open	5	90¢	$0	+9%	2028-11-07
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes	Open	21	10¢	$0	+20%	2027-12-31
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No	Open	5	85¢	$0	+9%	2027-06-30
Will Tencent be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	246	0¢	$0	+150%	2026-09-30
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No	Open	16	93¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No	Open	5	89¢	$0	+8%	2026-12-31
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No	Open	8	95¢	$0	+4%	2026-09-30
Will ByteDance be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	289	0¢	$0	+100%	2026-09-30
Will Thinky be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	563	0¢	$0	+50%	2026-09-30
Will Microsoft be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	259	0¢	$0	+50%	2026-08-31
Will Microsoft be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes	Open	481	0¢	$0	+25%	2026-09-30
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes	Open	32	4¢	$0	+19%	2026-12-31
Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)? Yes	Open	6	90¢	$0	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No	Open	8	95¢	$0	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Xiaomi be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	201	0¢	$0	+34%	2026-09-30
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes	Open	32	4¢	$0	+13%	2027-01-01
Will Meituan be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	308	0¢	$0	+50%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	20	3¢	$0	+22%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	394	1¢	$0	+2%	2026-09-30
Will Alberta join the US? No	Open	5	95¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Microsoft be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	208	0¢	$0	+50%	2026-09-30
Does Ox Alpha belong to Google? No	Open	5	95¢	$0	+2%	2026-12-31
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	31	1¢	$0	+31%	2026-09-30
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027? No	Open	1	92¢	$0	+4%	2026-12-31
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	35	0¢	$0	+38%	2026-09-30
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	Open	5	99¢	$0	+1%	2028-11-07
Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,078	0¢	$0	+1%	2026-08-31
Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	10	0¢	$0	+75%	2026-09-30
Will Thinky be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	36	0¢	$0	+50%	2026-09-30
Will Baidu be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	10	0¢	$0	+50%	2026-09-30
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes	Open	680	1¢	-$0	-1%	2026-10-01
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Yes	Open	16	8¢	-$0	-6%	2027-06-30
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes	Open	24	4¢	-$0	-10%	2026-12-31
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? No	Open	8	16¢	-$0	-16%	2026-09-30
Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	654	0¢	-$0	-50%	2026-09-30
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	1,002	0¢	-$0	-50%	2026-09-30
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	1,408	0¢	-$1	-10%	2026-09-30
McDonald’s in Cuba announced in 2026? Yes	Open	24	11¢	-$1	-30%	2026-12-31
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes	Open	80	5¢	-$1	-20%	2027-01-01
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes	Open	16	24¢	-$1	-23%	2027-01-01
Will Gwendolyn Beck be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026? Yes	Open	2	42¢	-$1	-86%	2026-12-31
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $10B in 2026? Yes	Open	37	11¢	-$1	-30%	2027-01-01
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	521	0¢	-$1	-63%	2026-09-01
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	336	1¢	-$2	-36%	2026-09-30
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $7B in 2026? Yes	Open	40	24¢	-$2	-21%	2027-01-01
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $9B in 2026? Yes	Open	49	15¢	-$2	-28%	2027-01-01
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	5,000	0¢	-$2	-25%	2026-09-30
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $8B in 2026? Yes	Open	93	16¢	-$3	-17%	2027-01-01
Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	6,690	0¢	-$3	-50%	2026-08-31
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	10,000	0¢	-$5	-50%	2026-08-31
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	12,395	0¢	-$6	-50%	2026-08-31
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Open	3,627	0¢	-$7	-56%	2026-12-31
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	20,000	0¢	-$10	-50%	2026-08-31
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? No	Open	128	16¢	-$14	-66%	2026-08-31
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	11,232	1¢	-$18	-31%	2028-11-07
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	Open	17,237	0¢	-$31	-42%	2028-11-07
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	1,797	4¢	-$50	-73%	2026-08-31
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? OpenAI	Open	288	23¢	-$51	-76%	2027-01-01
Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? Yes	Open	283	32¢	-$86	-94%	2026-08-31
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	6,504	2¢	-$107	-92%	2026-08-31
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes	Open	33,264	2¢	-$274	-44%	2026-12-31

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