Wallet ledger

0x2c41…133e

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

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The resolved record (positions, realized PnL, win rate, realized edge) is reconstructed by the analyzer. This wallet has not been analyzed yet, so there is nothing to show here. Run it through the analyzer and this tab fills in afterward.

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Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (119 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No	Open	20,241	51¢	$3.8K	+38%	2026-12-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No	Open	4,823	86¢	$668	+16%	2026-09-01
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? No	Open	818	18¢	$658	+448%	2026-09-01
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No	Open	1,558	51¢	$593	+75%	2026-12-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No	Open	1,039	76¢	$214	+27%	2026-09-30
Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No	Open	661	60¢	$137	+34%	2026-11-17
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No	Open	308	36¢	$105	+96%	2026-10-04
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? No	Open	238	25¢	$101	+172%	2027-01-01
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes	Open	597	73¢	$89	+20%	2026-10-26
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No	Open	219	50¢	$75	+68%	2027-01-01
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30? No	Open	260	72¢	$61	+33%	2026-10-01
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat? Yes	Open	577	80¢	$60	+13%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the WI-08 House seat? Yes	Open	578	79¢	$55	+12%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-01 House seat? Yes	Open	577	83¢	$49	+10%	2026-11-04
California voter ID referendum passes? Yes	Open	439	21¢	$49	+53%	2026-11-03
Will Nevada have the closest Governor's race in 2026? No	Open	791	84¢	$44	+7%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat? Yes	Open	577	77¢	$43	+10%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat? Yes	Open	769	84¢	$42	+7%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-04 House election by 35% or more? No	Open	441	81¢	$40	+11%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat? Yes	Open	577	64¢	$40	+11%	2026-11-03
Will "The Pitt" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	1,081	53¢	$38	+7%	2026-09-14
Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat? Yes	Open	577	80¢	$38	+8%	2026-11-03
Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	158	50¢	$37	+47%	2027-03-14
Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No	Open	218	30¢	$34	+52%	2027-01-21
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	154	23¢	$32	+90%	2026-10-04
Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections? No	Open	388	6¢	$31	+142%	2027-07-25
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No	Open	751	36¢	$30	+11%	2027-04-17
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? No	Open	130	53¢	$30	+43%	2027-01-01
Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware? Yes	Open	50	28¢	$30	+213%	2026-09-15
Blue wave in 2026? No	Open	307	14¢	$28	+62%	2026-11-30
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No	Open	187	77¢	$27	+19%	2026-09-20
SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31? No	Open	171	81¢	$26	+19%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat? Yes	Open	577	69¢	$26	+7%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat? Yes	Open	192	73¢	$25	+18%	2026-11-04
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat? No	Open	192	72¢	$24	+17%	2026-11-03
Will there be between 120m and 125m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections? No	Open	311	69¢	$21	+10%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the NY-24 House seat? Yes	Open	384	84¢	$21	+7%	2026-11-03
Will North Carolina have the closest Senate race in 2026? No	Open	130	83¢	$20	+18%	2026-11-03
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Yes	Open	89	43¢	$18	+47%	2026-11-17
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-05 House seat? No	Open	192	80¢	$16	+10%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the WI-07 House seat? Yes	Open	192	85¢	$15	+9%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat? Yes	Open	192	81¢	$14	+9%	2026-11-03
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? No	Open	171	15¢	$14	+53%	2026-10-04
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? Yes	Open	55	70¢	$13	+35%	2026-11-04
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No	Open	35	63¢	$12	+57%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-21 House seat? No	Open	192	86¢	$12	+8%	2026-11-03
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? No	Open	36	53¢	$12	+61%	2027-01-01
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? Yes	Open	106	62¢	$12	+18%	2026-09-08
Will Doug Burgum be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes	Open	209	0¢	$11	+1800%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii in 2026? No	Open	40	58¢	$11	+48%	2027-01-01
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No	Open	120	76¢	$9	+10%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-08 House seat? Yes	Open	96	88¢	$9	+11%	2026-11-04
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	154	22¢	$9	+27%	2026-09-20
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat? No	Open	192	68¢	$9	+7%	2026-11-03
Will there be between 105m and 110m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections? Yes	Open	107	1¢	$8	+1091%	2026-11-03
Will "The Pitt" win 8 or 9 awards at the Emmys? Yes	Open	456	3¢	$6	+46%	2026-09-14
Will Trump Airport become law this year? No	Open	49	84¢	$6	+15%	2026-12-31
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	235	6¢	$6	+42%	2027-01-01
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No	Open	288	13¢	$6	+16%	2027-04-17
Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat? Yes	Open	577	82¢	$6	+1%	2026-11-03
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31? No	Open	205	88¢	$4	+2%	2027-01-01
Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes	Open	196	5¢	$4	+41%	2027-01-01
Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08? Yes	Open	34	72¢	$4	+15%	2026-09-01
Will "Widow's Bay" win 10 or more awards at the Emmys? Yes	Open	195	3¢	$3	+67%	2026-09-14
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat? Yes	Open	96	80¢	$3	+4%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-17 House seat? Yes	Open	98	2¢	$2	+123%	2026-11-03
Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	50	6¢	$2	+79%	2026-09-06
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Open	145	26¢	$2	+6%	2027-04-17
Will Montana have the closest Senate race in 2026? No	Open	118	91¢	$1	+1%	2026-11-03
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? No	Open	8	61¢	$1	+20%	2026-12-31
Will Scott Bessent be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No	Open	85	90¢	$1	+1%	2027-01-01
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? Yes	Open	218	17¢	$1	+2%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party win the TX-17 House seat? Yes	Open	384	93¢	$0	0%	2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat? Yes	Open	8	70¢	-$0	-2%	2026-11-04
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? Yes	Open	71	10¢	-$0	-2%	2027-01-01
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? No	Open	3,408	4¢	-$0	-0%	2026-12-31
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys? Yes	Open	1,001	0¢	-$0	-50%	2026-09-14
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico Senate election by 21% or more? Yes	Open	154	25¢	-$1	-2%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat? Yes	Open	65	67¢	-$1	-1%	2026-11-03
Will "Widow's Bay" win 8 or 9 awards at the Emmys? Yes	Open	75	2¢	-$1	-48%	2026-09-14
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	384	0¢	-$1	-40%	2026-12-31
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? Yes	Open	240	11¢	-$1	-4%	1970-01-01
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	Open	248	10¢	-$1	-5%	2026-12-31
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 8 or 9 awards at the Emmys? Yes	Open	308	0¢	-$1	-90%	2026-09-14
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	340	14¢	-$3	-5%	2026-10-04
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? Yes	Open	384	31¢	-$3	-2%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat? No	Open	103	70¢	-$3	-4%	2026-11-03
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes	Open	189	5¢	-$3	-31%	2027-01-01
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat? Yes	Open	52	69¢	-$3	-10%	2026-11-04
Will "Pluribus" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	231	35¢	-$3	-4%	2026-09-14
Will "Beef" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys? Yes	Open	398	3¢	-$4	-40%	2026-09-14
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Open	385	57¢	-$5	-2%	2027-04-17
Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat? Yes	Open	192	79¢	-$5	-3%	2026-11-03
Will "Beef" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? Yes	Open	324	5¢	-$5	-31%	2026-09-14
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat? No	Open	192	79¢	-$5	-4%	2026-11-03
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat? Yes	Open	90	71¢	-$7	-11%	2026-11-03
Spain snap election called in 2026? Yes	Open	127	25¢	-$7	-22%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026? Yes	Open	57	23¢	-$9	-71%	2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Yes	Open	31	52¢	-$10	-64%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? Yes	Open	73	17¢	-$11	-87%	2027-01-01
Will Vassil Terziev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes	Open	385	4¢	-$13	-93%	2026-11-30
Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat? No	Open	447	68¢	-$18	-6%	2026-11-04
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? Yes	Open	154	20¢	-$20	-64%	2026-10-04
Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? Yes	Open	541	9¢	-$23	-47%	2026-09-27
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No	Open	105	52¢	-$23	-43%	2026-11-30
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes	Open	275	25¢	-$28	-41%	2026-09-08
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	705	37¢	-$37	-14%	2027-01-01
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? Yes	Open	2,956	2¢	-$45	-70%	2026-09-14
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	324	56¢	-$63	-34%	2027-01-01
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes	Open	407	23¢	-$68	-72%	2027-01-01
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? Yes	Open	433	35¢	-$76	-50%	1970-01-01
Will "The Pitt" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? No	Open	727	68¢	-$83	-17%	2026-09-14
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? Yes	Open	2,115	7¢	-$94	-65%	2026-09-14
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No	Open	865	62¢	-$99	-19%	2026-12-31
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? Yes	Open	596	35¢	-$103	-50%	2026-12-31
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	Open	853	28¢	-$175	-73%	2026-12-31
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? Yes	Open	751	46¢	-$234	-68%	2026-12-31
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,763	15¢	-$238	-92%	2026-10-01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	1,572	28¢	-$354	-80%	2027-01-01

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