Wallet ledger

0x2c39…56dc

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

290

Realized PnL

$75.5K

Win rate

56%

Realized edge

+0.018

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.018 across 290 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.01, +0.04]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (34 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No	Open	4,620	46¢	$1.3K	+61%	2026-11-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? No	Open	5,431	81¢	$963	+22%	2026-09-01
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? Yes	Open	3,853	57¢	$611	+28%	2027-07-01
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? Yes	Open	13,575	94¢	$505	+4%	2026-08-31
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes	Open	4,448	83¢	$378	+10%	2027-07-01
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? No	Open	2,710	85¢	$363	+16%	2026-09-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? No	Open	2,828	89¢	$286	+11%	2026-09-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August? No	Open	4,574	96¢	$179	+4%	2026-09-01
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	5,856	92¢	$173	+3%	2027-07-01
Will Catherine O'Hara be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? No	Open	1,010	91¢	$82	+9%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No	Open	500	50¢	$70	+28%	2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	2,132	17¢	$62	+17%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	2,500	14¢	$54	+16%	2027-07-01
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? Yes	Open	1,377	76¢	$37	+4%	2027-12-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	1,840	18¢	$26	+8%	2026-12-31
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? No	Open	343	92¢	$26	+8%	2026-09-01
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)? Yes	Open	1,286	14¢	$23	+13%	2027-12-31
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes	Open	3,829	8¢	$19	+6%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No	Open	6,674	71¢	$17	+0%	2027-01-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes	Open	100	82¢	$16	+20%	2026-08-31
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? No	Open	7	68¢	$2	+40%	2026-12-31
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No	Open	20	83¢	$1	+5%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No	Open	598	93¢	$1	+0%	2027-01-01
Will Trump say "World War" this week? No	Open	59	54¢	-$0	-0%	2026-08-30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes	Open	356	0¢	-$1	-38%	2026-10-10
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No	Open	5	63¢	-$1	-34%	2028-01-01
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No	Open	6	57¢	-$2	-58%	1970-01-01
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes	Open	16	39¢	-$6	-99%	1970-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No	Open	3,000	90¢	-$22	-1%	2027-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? Yes	Open	5,612	7¢	-$56	-14%	2026-09-08
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No	Open	343	77¢	-$81	-31%	2028-01-01
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? No	Open	1,191	31¢	-$153	-41%	2026-09-30
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No	Open	907	81¢	-$172	-23%	2028-01-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	9,435	17¢	-$1.5K	-90%	2026-09-01

Full skill analysis (Edge Score, calibration) →