Wallet ledger

0x1ee9…197f

This wallet's resolved record, plus a live snapshot of its current open positions. Public Polymarket data, descriptive only (not a skill claim).

Resolved positions

Realized PnL

$8.1K

Win rate

32%

Realized edge

+0.007

Canonical resolved record reconstructed by the analyzer (the same numbers the analyzer and leaderboard report). Realized edge +0.007 across 47 resolved positions, 95% CI [-0.05, +0.07]. Descriptive diagnostics from settled public trades, not a skill claim and not a forecast.

Current open positions

Live holdings snapshot from Polymarket right now (500 open). These are unsettled positions, not part of the resolved record above.


Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No	Open	4,731	59¢	$1.4K	+50%	2027-02-01
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? Yes	Open	23,090	3¢	$728	+93%	2027-07-01
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 140m by August 31? No	Open	1,333	55¢	$576	+78%	2026-08-31
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No	Open	3,254	67¢	$521	+24%	2026-03-31
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 150m by August 31? No	Open	3,419	86¢	$477	+16%	2026-08-31
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? No	Open	2,006	75¢	$408	+27%	2026-06-30
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? No	Open	1,079	56¢	$398	+66%	2027-02-01
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? No	Open	1,051	63¢	$335	+51%	2027-12-31
Ostium FDV above $50M one day after launch? No	Open	770	49¢	$304	+80%	2027-01-01
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 130m by August 31? No	Open	392	21¢	$290	+347%	2026-08-31
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No	Open	2,762	70¢	$286	+15%	2026-12-31
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No	Open	1,507	69¢	$283	+27%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	1,595	10¢	$272	+178%	2026-12-31
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? No	Open	590	35¢	$256	+125%	2027-01-01
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31? No	Open	570	37¢	$246	+117%	2027-01-01
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? No	Open	1,579	57¢	$240	+27%	2026-10-31
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	1,159	20¢	$234	+100%	2026-09-20
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No	Open	1,105	65¢	$223	+31%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	415	33¢	$198	+146%	2026-08-31
Spain snap election called in 2026? No	Open	1,105	64¢	$195	+28%	2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? Yes	Open	1,174	57¢	$194	+29%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T? Yes	Open	536	12¢	$187	+284%	2027-12-31
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? Yes	Open	3,093	13¢	$186	+46%	2027-07-01
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	1,266	84¢	$179	+17%	2026-08-31
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31? No	Open	432	36¢	$178	+114%	2027-01-01
Will EUR/USD hit 1.26 (High) in 2026? No	Open	438	51¢	$176	+79%	2026-12-31
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No	Open	1,446	68¢	$170	+17%	2026-12-31
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? No	Open	1,211	77¢	$167	+18%	2026-12-31
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	381	55¢	$166	+80%	2026-08-31
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? No	Open	532	68¢	$160	+44%	2026-08-31
Will Leon Goretzka join AC Milan? No	Open	264	36¢	$159	+167%	2026-09-02
Will Grüne win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	564	66¢	$156	+42%	2026-09-20
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by December 31? No	Open	621	52¢	$144	+45%	2027-01-01
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31? No	Open	1,411	72¢	$139	+14%	2027-01-01
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No	Open	1,823	5¢	$124	+129%	2028-01-01
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? No	Open	520	40¢	$122	+59%	2027-01-01
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to MP or KD? MP	Open	1,503	57¢	$120	+14%	2026-09-13
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by December 31? No	Open	245	17¢	$116	+279%	2027-01-01
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? No	Open	616	24¢	$113	+75%	2026-08-31
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $65B by December 31? No	Open	1,912	86¢	$110	+7%	2027-01-01
Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	410	10¢	$110	+261%	2026-09-20
Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	765	75¢	$107	+19%	2026-09-20
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No	Open	727	63¢	$104	+23%	2026-12-31
Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes? No	Open	519	57¢	$101	+34%	2026-09-20
Will Rafael Leao join Liverpool? No	Open	437	70¢	$93	+30%	2026-09-02
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	893	33¢	$93	+32%	2026-12-31
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $25B by December 31? No	Open	693	78¢	$92	+17%	2027-01-01
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 130 or more seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No	Open	357	74¢	$90	+34%	2026-09-13
Berlin State Election: More Votes to Linke or Grüne? Linke	Open	1,256	77¢	$89	+9%	2026-09-20
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No	Open	1,167	70¢	$89	+11%	2026-12-31
Will the Green Party (MP) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	1,005	21¢	$88	+41%	2026-09-13
Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	1,305	26¢	$87	+26%	2026-09-20
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	728	55¢	$87	+22%	2026-09-20
Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027? No	Open	315	6¢	$86	+425%	2027-01-01
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? No	Open	604	8¢	$84	+185%	2026-12-31
Will CDU win 45 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	537	77¢	$84	+20%	2026-09-20
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026? Yes	Open	394	42¢	$84	+50%	2027-01-31
Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? Yes	Open	498	58¢	$84	+29%	2026-10-26
Will AfD win 20-22 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	632	83¢	$83	+16%	2026-09-20
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by December 31? No	Open	411	71¢	$79	+27%	2027-01-01
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $11B by August 31? No	Open	102	15¢	$79	+515%	2026-09-01
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	2,035	5¢	$79	+71%	2026-09-20
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No	Open	1,123	75¢	$78	+9%	2026-12-31
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	380	78¢	$76	+25%	2026-08-31
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026? No	Open	824	77¢	$75	+12%	2026-12-31
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No	Open	495	79¢	$73	+19%	2027-02-01
Will AfD win 32-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	1,025	22¢	$72	+31%	2026-09-20
Will Iran join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	497	7¢	$72	+207%	2026-12-31
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government? Yes	Open	146	20¢	$72	+251%	2027-01-31
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? No	Open	542	55¢	$69	+23%	2026-09-30
Will SPD win between 25% and 28% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	841	24¢	$69	+35%	2026-09-20
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No	Open	372	37¢	$66	+48%	2026-12-31
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No	Open	411	72¢	$66	+22%	2026-12-31
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	862	20¢	$59	+35%	2026-09-30
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	396	83¢	$58	+18%	2026-08-31
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	775	80¢	$58	+9%	2026-09-20
Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	502	87¢	$58	+13%	2026-08-31
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by December 31? No	Open	255	32¢	$57	+71%	2027-01-01
Will Grüne win 40-44 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	250	75¢	$55	+29%	2026-09-20
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026? No	Open	443	57¢	$53	+21%	2026-09-30
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No	Open	500	79¢	$53	+13%	2026-12-31
Will Linke win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	395	21¢	$52	+62%	2026-09-20
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	148	63¢	$51	+55%	2026-08-31
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31? No	Open	694	77¢	$51	+10%	2027-01-01
Extended listed on Upbit within 30 days of TGE? No	Open	163	56¢	$51	+56%	2028-02-01
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by December 31? No	Open	149	64¢	$51	+53%	2027-01-01
Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	196	18¢	$48	+136%	2026-09-20
Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	358	21¢	$48	+65%	2026-09-20
MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? No	Open	95	10¢	$47	+498%	2027-01-01
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6.5B by August 31? No	Open	195	75¢	$47	+32%	2026-09-01
UK Recession in 2026? No	Open	167	62¢	$45	+43%	2027-03-31
Will the Green Party (MP) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	516	14¢	$44	+62%	2026-09-13
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? No	Open	355	83¢	$44	+15%	2026-10-01
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16B by August 31? No	Open	210	77¢	$44	+27%	2026-09-01
Will Databricks have the third highest private market valuation on August 31? Yes	Open	347	74¢	$43	+17%	2026-09-01
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? No	Open	332	80¢	$43	+16%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $850B by August 31? No	Open	451	84¢	$42	+11%	2026-09-01
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	86	49¢	$41	+97%	2026-08-31
Will Centre Party (C) win at least 9% of all valid votes? No	Open	244	66¢	$40	+24%	2026-09-13
Will Wisconsin disenfranchise any voter for betting on elections before election day? No	Open	109	60¢	$40	+61%	2026-11-02
Will Citizens’ Movement (MC) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? Yes	Open	1,125	0¢	$39	+1051%	2027-06-06
Databricks vs Stripe — higher valuation on December 31? Databricks	Open	59	17¢	$38	+373%	2027-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028? Yes	Open	142	26¢	$38	+104%	2026-12-31
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? No	Open	98	61¢	$37	+61%	1970-01-01
Will the Centre Party (C) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	406	18¢	$36	+50%	2026-09-13
Will AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	356	17¢	$36	+59%	2026-09-20
Will CDU win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	359	19¢	$36	+54%	2026-09-20
Will AfD win 20-23 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No	Open	291	84¢	$35	+14%	2026-09-20
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes? Yes	Open	427	35¢	$35	+23%	2026-09-13
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? Yes	Open	265	22¢	$34	+59%	2026-09-13
Extended listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	177	19¢	$34	+103%	2028-02-01
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	283	28¢	$34	+43%	2026-12-31
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	3,933	96¢	$34	+1%	2026-09-20
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No	Open	198	59¢	$34	+29%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? No	Open	190	76¢	$34	+23%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic’s valuation be less than $500B at the end of October 2026? No	Open	149	51¢	$34	+44%	2026-10-31
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31? No	Open	496	28¢	$33	+24%	2027-01-01
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No	Open	220	60¢	$32	+24%	2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by August 31, 2026? No	Open	108	54¢	$32	+54%	2026-08-31
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Open	700	86¢	$32	+5%	2026-12-31
Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? Yes	Open	491	7¢	$30	+84%	2026-12-31
Will Global Esports make a roster change by September? Yes	Open	69	8¢	$30	+570%	1970-01-01
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? No	Open	83	23¢	$30	+154%	2026-11-01
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win at least 33% of all valid votes? No	Open	132	64¢	$29	+34%	2026-09-13
Will SPD win 26-29 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	120	15¢	$28	+159%	2026-09-20
Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	74	22¢	$28	+174%	2026-09-06
Berlin State Election: CDU Over/Under 20%? Under	Open	340	58¢	$28	+14%	2026-09-20
Will Linke win 40 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	312	25¢	$28	+36%	2026-09-20
Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election? No	Open	71	45¢	$26	+82%	2026-10-28
Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	187	59¢	$26	+24%	2026-09-20
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke? Linke	Open	75	38¢	$26	+91%	2026-09-20
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $4B by December 31? Yes	Open	121	14¢	$25	+150%	2027-01-01
Will Clavicular visit the Philippines in 2026? No	Open	286	80¢	$25	+11%	2026-12-31
Will Linke win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	592	20¢	$25	+21%	2026-09-20
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? Yes	Open	112	19¢	$24	+114%	2026-12-31
Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	55	55¢	$24	+79%	2026-08-31
Will Linke win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	206	83¢	$24	+14%	2026-09-20
Will CDU win fewer than 25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	169	85¢	$24	+16%	2026-09-20
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1100? Yes	Open	126	80¢	$24	+24%	2027-03-31
Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026? Yes	Open	100	2¢	$23	+1254%	2027-01-20
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $92.5B by August 31? No	Open	178	76¢	$22	+16%	2026-09-01
US bank failure by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	69	13¢	$22	+255%	2026-12-31
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31? No	Open	60	57¢	$22	+65%	2027-01-01
Will Aster dip to $0.40 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	44	20¢	$22	+247%	2027-01-01
Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government? Yes	Open	80	52¢	$22	+53%	2027-01-31
Will Bruno Fernandes join AC Milan? No	Open	50	56¢	$22	+78%	2026-09-02
Will Emiliano Martinez join Al-Hilal? No	Open	50	55¢	$21	+77%	2026-09-02
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	552	11¢	$21	+36%	2026-12-31
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	70	67¢	$21	+45%	2026-08-31
Will Bruno Fernandes join Real Madrid? No	Open	54	61¢	$21	+63%	2026-09-02
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? No	Open	749	35¢	$20	+8%	1970-01-01
Will Linke win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	80	69¢	$20	+37%	2026-09-20
Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? No	Open	147	57¢	$19	+23%	2027-06-30
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes	Open	465	1¢	$19	+707%	2027-12-31
Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes? No	Open	698	66¢	$19	+4%	2026-09-13
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? No	Open	247	57¢	$19	+14%	2026-12-31
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 160m by August 31? No	Open	872	97¢	$19	+2%	2026-08-31
Will Clavicular visit Japan in 2026? No	Open	316	70¢	$19	+8%	2026-12-31
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	746	9¢	$19	+28%	2026-09-20
Will AfD win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	263	92¢	$18	+8%	2026-09-20
Will Green Party (MP) win less than 5% of all valid votes? No	Open	380	81¢	$18	+6%	2026-09-13
Sweden Parliamentary Election: C Over/Under 6%? Over	Open	113	61¢	$18	+26%	2026-09-13
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31? No	Open	229	52¢	$18	+15%	2027-01-01
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes	Open	1,180	7¢	$18	+21%	2026-12-31
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	209	23¢	$17	+37%	2026-09-20
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? Yes	Open	225	9¢	$17	+83%	2026-09-02
Will Clavicular visit Brazil in 2026? No	Open	100	76¢	$17	+22%	2026-12-31
Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026? No	Open	25	29¢	$17	+230%	2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.50T? Yes	Open	366	0¢	$16	+2250%	2027-12-31
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31? No	Open	141	70¢	$16	+16%	2027-01-01
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes	Open	828	31¢	$16	+6%	2027-04-30
Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? Yes	Open	1,312	10¢	$16	+13%	2027-06-06
LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent? Yes	Open	83	1¢	$16	+1378%	1970-01-01
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes? Yes	Open	121	8¢	$16	+157%	2026-09-13
Will Linke win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	258	17¢	$16	+35%	2026-09-20
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	190	16¢	$15	+50%	2026-09-13
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes	Open	86	79¢	$15	+23%	2026-10-04
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be $2.50T or more? Yes	Open	344	0¢	$15	+1914%	2027-12-31
Will the Left Party (V) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	329	20¢	$15	+23%	2026-09-13
Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026? No	Open	55	69¢	$15	+39%	2027-01-31
Will J.D. Vance be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? Yes	Open	215	6¢	$15	+124%	2027-12-31
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes	Open	130	49¢	$14	+21%	2027-05-30
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? Yes	Open	261	51¢	$14	+10%	2027-01-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	1,156	7¢	$14	+16%	2026-12-31
Will Federico Valverde finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No	Open	684	97¢	$13	+2%	2026-10-26
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31? Yes	Open	22	26¢	$13	+229%	2027-01-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028? Yes	Open	42	29¢	$13	+107%	2027-12-31
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026? No	Open	40	57¢	$13	+56%	2027-01-01
Valantis FDV above $50M one day after launch? No	Open	24	21¢	$13	+245%	2028-01-01
Linera listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	50	19¢	$12	+124%	2028-02-01
Will CDU win less than 17% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	265	11¢	$12	+41%	2026-09-20
Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? Yes	Open	40	44¢	$11	+64%	2026-10-28
Will Clavicular visit South Korea in 2026? No	Open	126	77¢	$11	+11%	2026-12-31
Will Aster dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026? No	Open	30	51¢	$11	+73%	2027-01-01
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win less than 5% of all valid votes? No	Open	105	79¢	$11	+13%	2026-09-13
Will Marcus Rashford join AC Milan? No	Open	36	69¢	$11	+44%	2026-09-02
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch No	Open	20	15¢	$11	+363%	2028-01-01
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No	Open	540	74¢	$11	+3%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	1,666	6¢	$11	+12%	2026-12-31
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by December 31? No	Open	53	59¢	$11	+34%	2027-01-01
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch No	Open	20	15¢	$11	+350%	2028-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No	Open	72	76¢	$10	+19%	2027-01-01
Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026? Yes	Open	99	10¢	$10	+103%	2026-09-15
Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026? Yes	Open	423	8¢	$10	+29%	2026-12-31
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No	Open	113	78¢	$10	+12%	2026-09-20
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31? Yes	Open	22	10¢	$10	+460%	2027-01-01
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to BSW or Grüne? Grüne	Open	84	65¢	$10	+18%	2026-09-20
X banned in any European country by December 31? No	Open	44	64¢	$10	+35%	2026-12-31
Will SBF appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? No	Open	211	70¢	$9	+6%	2027-01-01
Will Mike Maignan (Milan) record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 Serie A season? Yes	Open	343	10¢	$9	+28%	2027-05-31
Stripe vs Databricks — greater valuation growth August 2026 Stripe	Open	30	8¢	$9	+400%	2026-09-01
Will Bruno Fernandes join Barcelona? No	Open	20	55¢	$9	+82%	2026-09-02
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $95B by August 31? No	Open	77	87¢	$9	+13%	2026-09-01
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No	Open	25	55¢	$9	+66%	2026-12-31
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by August 31? Yes	Open	65	5¢	$9	+270%	2026-09-01
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? Yes	Open	488	31¢	$9	+6%	2027-12-31
Will Linke win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No	Open	80	89¢	$9	+12%	2026-09-20
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? No	Open	49	65¢	$9	+27%	2027-01-01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	277	8¢	$8	+40%	2026-09-30
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in August? No	Open	96	48¢	$8	+18%	2026-08-31
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No	Open	38	79¢	$8	+27%	2026-09-01
Will Anthropic not IPO before 2028? Yes	Open	1,220	0¢	$8	+266%	2027-12-31
Will $ANSEM dip to $0.01 before 2027? No	Open	40	72¢	$8	+27%	2027-01-01
Will Darline Graham win at least 30% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff? Yes	Open	21	62¢	$8	+60%	2026-08-25
Will Tottenham Hotspur qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? No	Open	256	74¢	$8	+4%	2027-09-01
Will Bradley Barcola join Real Madrid? No	Open	19	60¢	$8	+65%	2026-09-02
Will Bruno Fernandes join Sporting CP? No	Open	20	62¢	$8	+61%	2026-09-02
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? Yes	Open	1,113	2¢	$8	+45%	2026-12-31
Will there be four or more UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? Yes	Open	866	0¢	$8	+180%	2027-12-31
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31? No	Open	50	78¢	$8	+19%	2027-01-01
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by August 31? No	Open	20	64¢	$7	+57%	2026-09-01
Will Rafael Leao join Al-Hilal? No	Open	20	59¢	$7	+61%	2026-09-02
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? Yes	Open	148	24¢	$7	+20%	2027-01-01
Will Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on August 31? Yes	Open	309	6¢	$7	+40%	2026-09-01
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 24, 2026? No	Open	180	6¢	$7	+63%	2026-08-24
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No	Open	45	84¢	$6	+17%	2026-08-31
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026? No	Open	50	76¢	$6	+16%	2026-12-31
Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government? No	Open	44	46¢	$6	+30%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T? Yes	Open	182	2¢	$6	+146%	2027-07-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	389	2¢	$6	+88%	2026-09-01
Linera listed on Upbit within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	20	13¢	$6	+223%	2028-02-01
Cambria listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	20	16¢	$6	+178%	2028-02-01
Will Yeet launch a token by June 30, 2027? No	Open	20	7¢	$6	+407%	2027-07-01
Cambria listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	40	19¢	$6	+74%	2028-02-01
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? No	Open	119	80¢	$6	+6%	2027-07-01
Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes? No	Open	154	92¢	$5	+4%	2026-09-20
Will $ANSEM reach $1.5 before 2027? No	Open	37	81¢	$5	+17%	2027-01-01
Will NRG make a roster change before September? Yes	Open	84	9¢	$5	+70%	1970-01-01
Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No	Open	146	82¢	$5	+4%	2026-09-20
Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026? No	Open	8	36¢	$5	+177%	2027-01-31
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No	Open	7	33¢	$5	+200%	2027-12-31
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No	Open	8	34¢	$5	+191%	2027-12-31
Will the Labor Party (PT) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? Yes	Open	1,074	0¢	$5	+156%	2027-06-06
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31? No	Open	57	32¢	$5	+26%	2027-01-01
Will SPD win less than 25% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	229	9¢	$5	+23%	2026-09-20
Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes? No	Open	1,047	64¢	$5	+1%	2026-09-20
Cambria listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	20	15¢	$4	+140%	2028-02-01
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by December 31? Yes	Open	282	43¢	$4	+3%	2027-01-01
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.8% and 3.0%? Yes	Open	67	15¢	$4	+42%	2027-01-19
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31? No	Open	15	66¢	$4	+41%	2027-01-01
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? No	Open	47	10¢	$4	+87%	2028-01-01
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	100	5¢	$4	+78%	2026-09-20
Will Eduardo Camavinga stay at Real Madrid? Yes	Open	10	53¢	$4	+71%	2026-09-02
Will Ventuals launch a token by September 30 2026? No	Open	6	38¢	$4	+159%	2026-10-01
Will Sentinels make a roster change before September? Yes	Open	36	15¢	$4	+69%	1970-01-01
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? No	Open	15	9¢	$4	+263%	2028-01-01
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 70 by August 31? Yes	Open	48	9¢	$4	+83%	2026-09-01
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T? Yes	Open	292	3¢	$3	+38%	2027-07-01
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or KD? V	Open	55	65¢	$3	+9%	2026-09-13
Le Pen endorses non-Bardella PM by December 31, 2026? No	Open	31	84¢	$3	+12%	2026-12-31
Will Julian Alvarez join Chelsea? Yes	Open	126	0¢	$3	+1300%	2026-09-02
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31? No	Open	28	35¢	$3	+32%	2027-01-01
Will Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 62m by August 31? No	Open	208	97¢	$3	+2%	2026-08-31
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%? Over	Open	41	67¢	$3	+11%	2026-09-20
MagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch? No	Open	5	9¢	$3	+680%	2027-01-01
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes	Open	19	17¢	$3	+91%	2026-09-20
Extended listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	16	22¢	$3	+80%	2028-02-01
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 70,000 and 75,000? Yes	Open	40	9¢	$3	+72%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic’s valuation be less than $500B at the end of August 2026? No	Open	44	94¢	$3	+6%	2026-08-31
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? Yes	Open	120	22¢	$2	+9%	2026-12-31
Will Bradley Barcola join Chelsea? Yes	Open	478	0¢	$2	+501%	2026-09-02
Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $500B and $750B at the end of August 2026? No	Open	36	92¢	$2	+7%	2026-08-31
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in August? No	Open	180	97¢	$2	+1%	2026-08-31
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31? No	Open	14	66¢	$2	+25%	2027-01-01
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $43B by August 31? No	Open	28	89¢	$2	+9%	2026-09-01
Will South African inflation be between 2.9% and 3.2% in 2026? Yes	Open	91	1¢	$2	+218%	2027-01-20
Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? No	Open	18	77¢	$2	+16%	2026-10-31
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 28, 2026? No	Open	38	70¢	$2	+8%	2026-08-28
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or MP? V	Open	52	48¢	$2	+8%	2026-09-13
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? No	Open	120	41¢	$2	+4%	2027-01-01
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? No	Open	192	35¢	$2	+3%	2027-01-01
Will Iran target Kuwait by September 15, 2026? No	Open	9	61¢	$2	+34%	2026-09-15
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? No	Open	97	52¢	$2	+4%	2026-09-30
Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No	Open	60	65¢	$2	+5%	2026-09-20
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Yes	Open	173	14¢	$2	+7%	2026-12-31
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31? No	Open	38	85¢	$2	+5%	2027-01-01
Will the Centre Party (C) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	20	19¢	$2	+45%	2026-09-13
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026? No	Open	10	68¢	$2	+24%	2027-01-01
Will Byron Donalds win at least 45% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? Yes	Open	51	95¢	$2	+3%	2026-08-18
Will Rafael Leao stay at AC Milan? No	Open	8	58¢	$2	+31%	2026-09-02
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2028? No	Open	51	68¢	$2	+4%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $750B and $1.00T at the end of August 2026? No	Open	50	92¢	$2	+3%	2026-08-31
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	6	21¢	$2	+119%	2026-09-06
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? No	Open	657	8¢	$1	+3%	2027-01-31
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No	Open	40	89¢	$1	+4%	2027-01-01
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes? Yes	Open	21	10¢	$1	+65%	2026-09-13
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes	Open	37	11¢	$1	+32%	2027-05-30
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	24	18¢	$1	+28%	2026-09-13
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No	Open	3	59¢	$1	+61%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes	Open	268	0¢	$1	+150%	2026-12-31
Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	240	14¢	$1	+4%	2027-01-01
Will Elon post "Trump" on X this week? Yes	Open	7	18¢	$1	+94%	2026-08-30
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by August 31? Yes	Open	22	1¢	$1	+525%	2026-09-01
Will Centre Party (C) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes? No	Open	15	53¢	$1	+14%	2026-09-13
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? Yes	Open	10	51¢	$1	+23%	2026-12-31
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No	Open	47	60¢	$1	+4%	2027-01-01
Will Napoli win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? Yes	Open	45	11¢	$1	+23%	2027-05-30
NVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by December 31, 2026? No	Open	31	14¢	$1	+24%	2027-01-01
Will South African inflation be between 3.2% and 3.5% in 2026? Yes	Open	44	1¢	$1	+458%	2027-01-20
Will SPD win 34 or more seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	72	0¢	$1	+290%	2026-09-20
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	20	22¢	$1	+23%	2026-10-31
Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	10	18¢	$1	+53%	2026-09-20
Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	948	0¢	$1	+33%	2026-09-30
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026? No	Open	3	51¢	$1	+63%	2027-01-01
Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026? No	Open	10	85¢	$1	+11%	2026-12-31
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $39B by August 31? No	Open	19	89¢	$1	+5%	2026-09-01
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	71	16¢	$1	+7%	2026-12-31
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for Real Madrid next? No	Open	10	91¢	$1	+9%	2026-08-31
Will Max Holloway fight Justin Gaethje next? No	Open	28	90¢	$1	+3%	1970-01-01
Will Maren Kaminski win the next Hannover mayoral election? Yes	Open	91	1¢	$1	+86%	2026-09-13
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama Nothing	Open	5	80¢	$1	+18%	2026-12-31
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	27	0¢	$1	+850%	2026-08-31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No	Open	2	58¢	$1	+49%	2026-12-31
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	11	59¢	$1	+10%	2026-09-20
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? Yes	Open	3	18¢	$1	+122%	2026-10-04
Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	57	1¢	$1	+189%	2026-08-31
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No	Open	2	49¢	$1	+65%	2026-12-31
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on August 31? Yes	Open	17	94¢	$1	+4%	2026-09-01
Will Linke win between 8% and 11% of all valid second votes? No	Open	20	65¢	$1	+5%	2026-09-20
Will Marco Rubio be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? Yes	Open	241	6¢	$1	+4%	2027-12-31
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No	Open	2	65¢	$1	+54%	2027-12-31
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No	Open	5	73¢	$1	+15%	2027-01-01
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No	Open	10	82¢	$1	+7%	2026-11-03
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win at least 9% of all valid votes? Yes	Open	48	3¢	$1	+43%	2026-09-13
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? Yes	Open	35	7¢	$1	+21%	1970-01-01
Will South African inflation be between 3.8% and 4.1% in 2026? Yes	Open	35	6¢	$1	+25%	2027-01-20
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	20	7¢	$1	+36%	2026-09-20
Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	6	43¢	$0	+19%	2027-01-01
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? No	Open	1	56¢	$0	+66%	2027-01-01
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.74%? Yes	Open	73	0¢	$0	+114%	2027-01-12
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to C or KD? C	Open	20	63¢	$0	+3%	2026-09-13
Cambria listed on Upbit within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	20	14¢	$0	+14%	2028-02-01
Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? No	Open	2	65¢	$0	+40%	2026-12-31
Will CDU win between 11% and 14% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	70	13¢	$0	+4%	2026-09-20
Will Trump meet with King Mohammed VI in 2026? No	Open	11	78¢	$0	+4%	2026-12-31
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No	Open	5	92¢	$0	+8%	2026-10-01
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	134	0¢	$0	+125%	2026-09-30
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? No	Open	22	82¢	$0	+2%	2027-01-01
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No	Open	399	20¢	$0	+0%	2028-03-31
Situational Awareness Anthropic sale confirmed by August 31? No	Open	1	73¢	$0	+33%	1970-01-01
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	10	10¢	$0	+30%	2026-09-13
Will Rafael Leao join Inter Milan? Yes	Open	64	0¢	$0	+153%	2026-09-02
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M? M	Open	4	21¢	$0	+31%	2026-09-13
Will Axis launch a token by June 30, 2027? No	Open	1	43¢	$0	+64%	2027-07-01
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	19	5¢	$0	+27%	2026-09-30
Will Juventus win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? Yes	Open	15	12¢	$0	+12%	2027-05-30
Epic Games vs Roblox - higher valuation on December 31? Epic Games	Open	26	11¢	$0	+6%	2027-01-01
Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? Yes	Open	15	9¢	$0	+11%	2026-09-13
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	7	13¢	$0	+13%	2027-01-01
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No	Open	1	90¢	$0	+11%	2026-12-31
Will Trump praise Nicki Minaj in August? Yes	Open	3	17¢	$0	+20%	2026-08-31
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	45	46¢	$0	+0%	2026-09-30
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Liverpool? Yes	Open	45	0¢	$0	+75%	2026-09-02
Will CDU win fewer than 25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	34	0¢	$0	+50%	2026-09-20
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027? Yes	Open	1	3¢	$0	+200%	2028-01-01
Spain snap election called in 2026? Yes	Open	7	18¢	$0	+3%	2026-12-31
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No	Open	1	90¢	$0	+4%	2026-09-20
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No	Open	7	85¢	$0	+1%	2026-12-31
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for Real Salt Lake next? No	Open	1	97¢	$0	+3%	2026-08-31
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? No	Open	5	95¢	$0	+0%	2027-02-01
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	669	15¢	$0	+0%	2027-01-01
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? Yes	Open	230	11¢	$0	0%	2027-01-01
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 55 by August 31? Yes	Open	10	13¢	$0	0%	2026-09-01
Will AfD win 46-49 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	12	4¢	-$0	-3%	2026-09-06
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026? Yes	Open	9	5¢	-$0	-4%	2026-12-31
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes	Open	2	6¢	-$0	-33%	2026-12-31
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	2	7¢	-$0	-57%	2026-09-01
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? No	Open	15	88¢	-$0	-1%	2027-05-30
Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	20	39¢	-$0	-1%	2026-09-20
Will Clavicular visit Germany in 2026? Yes	Open	3	25¢	-$0	-14%	2026-12-31
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31? Yes	Open	6	24¢	-$0	-10%	2027-01-01
Will Rafael Leao join Barcelona? Yes	Open	20	5¢	-$0	-16%	2026-09-02
Will Max Holloway be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	21	1¢	-$0	-67%	2026-12-31
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? Yes	Open	8	3¢	-$0	-83%	2026-08-31
Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026? No	Open	5	76¢	-$0	-5%	2026-12-31
Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Yes	Open	5	19¢	-$0	-21%	2027-06-30
Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	41	13¢	-$0	-4%	2026-10-31
Will Bradley Barcola join Newcastle United? Yes	Open	438	0¢	-$0	-50%	2026-09-02
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%? Yes	Open	10	11¢	-$0	-35%	2027-01-12
Will SPD win 30-33 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes	Open	78	4¢	-$0	-12%	2026-09-20
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes	Open	4	24¢	-$0	-41%	2028-11-07
Extended listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE? No	Open	5	73¢	-$0	-12%	2028-02-01
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Yes	Open	11	9¢	-$0	-44%	2026-12-31
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes	Open	30	10¢	-$0	-15%	2027-05-30
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.25% and 2.99%? Yes	Open	76	1¢	-$0	-53%	2027-01-12
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? Yes	Open	7	28¢	-$1	-25%	2027-01-01
Will Clavicular visit Thailand in 2026? No	Open	250	78¢	-$1	-0%	2026-12-31
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No	Open	2	54¢	-$1	-53%	2026-11-30
Will Paper Rex make a roster change before September? Yes	Open	34	8¢	-$1	-22%	1970-01-01
Will Axis launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	15	16¢	-$1	-28%	2027-01-01
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? No	Open	30	93¢	-$1	-2%	2026-10-01
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes	Open	20	11¢	-$1	-32%	2026-09-30
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? Yes	Open	104	4¢	-$1	-18%	2027-01-12
Will Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027? No	Open	20	18¢	-$1	-22%	2027-10-01
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by December 31? Yes	Open	16	19¢	-$1	-30%	2027-01-01
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7%? Yes	Open	45	8¢	-$1	-26%	2027-01-19
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? No	Open	5	21¢	-$1	-87%	2028-01-01
Will $ANSEM reach $0.8 before 2027? Yes	Open	21	18¢	-$1	-25%	2027-01-01
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? Yes	Open	21	10¢	-$1	-45%	2027-05-30
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	10	62¢	-$1	-17%	2026-08-31
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	16	22¢	-$1	-32%	2026-09-20
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? No	Open	5	25¢	-$1	-88%	2028-01-01
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes	Open	13	12¢	-$1	-78%	2026-08-31
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes	Open	41	57¢	-$1	-5%	2026-10-31
Will Rafael Leao join Bayern Munich? Yes	Open	17	11¢	-$1	-76%	2026-09-02
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No	Open	4	56¢	-$1	-70%	2026-12-31
Will Rafael Leao join Arsenal? Yes	Open	15	32¢	-$2	-34%	2026-09-02
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes	Open	20	9¢	-$2	-96%	2026-08-31
Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	8	39¢	-$2	-59%	2027-01-01
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	20	22¢	-$2	-43%	2026-12-31
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? No	Open	108	93¢	-$2	-2%	2027-01-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No	Open	403	62¢	-$2	-1%	1970-01-01
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	482	1¢	-$2	-52%	2026-08-31
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42B by August 31? No	Open	20	70¢	-$2	-15%	2026-09-01
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	517	18¢	-$3	-3%	2027-01-01
Will Darline Graham win at least 45% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff? Yes	Open	17	91¢	-$3	-16%	2026-08-25
Will Julian Alvarez join Real Madrid? Yes	Open	320	1¢	-$3	-85%	2026-09-02
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? Yes	Open	20	22¢	-$3	-66%	2026-12-31
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? No	Open	97	26¢	-$4	-16%	2026-12-31
Cambria listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE? Yes	Open	120	16¢	-$4	-22%	2028-02-01
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? Yes	Open	287	12¢	-$4	-12%	2027-05-30
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? Yes	Open	199	3¢	-$4	-82%	2027-06-06
Canada's population Up or Down this year? Up	Open	9	63¢	-$5	-83%	2027-04-30
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	400	5¢	-$5	-25%	2026-09-30
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026? Yes	Open	1,994	0¢	-$6	-67%	2026-09-30
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31? No	Open	199	32¢	-$6	-10%	2027-01-01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes	Open	116	11¢	-$6	-50%	2027-01-01
Will Bradley Barcola join Bayern Munich? Yes	Open	218	3¢	-$6	-98%	2026-09-02
Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%? Over	Open	41	72¢	-$7	-22%	2026-09-20
Another Elon baby by December 31? No	Open	39	72¢	-$7	-23%	2026-12-31
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%? Yes	Open	203	8¢	-$7	-43%	2026-10-04
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $600B by August 31? Yes	Open	20	39¢	-$7	-91%	2026-09-01
Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes? Yes	Open	240	10¢	-$7	-31%	2026-09-06
SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31? Yes	Open	280	6¢	-$8	-47%	2026-12-31
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $11B by August 31? Yes	Open	10	85¢	-$8	-91%	2026-09-01
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	40	22¢	-$8	-88%	2026-08-31
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31? No	Open	51	63¢	-$8	-25%	2027-01-01
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	400	76¢	-$8	-3%	2026-09-13
Will Veda launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes	Open	68	46¢	-$8	-26%	2027-07-01
James Comey charges dropped by December 31? No	Open	74	34¢	-$8	-33%	2026-12-31
Will OpenAI have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026? Yes	Open	125	15¢	-$8	-45%	2026-09-01
Will Rafael Leao join Manchester United? Yes	Open	96	14¢	-$9	-63%	2026-09-02
Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? Yes	Open	80	23¢	-$9	-50%	2027-12-31
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 11%? Over	Open	264	45¢	-$9	-8%	2026-09-20
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? No	Open	1,006	64¢	-$10	-2%	2026-08-31
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Yes	Open	736	7¢	-$10	-19%	2026-09-01
Will Centre Party (C) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes? Yes	Open	67	45¢	-$10	-32%	2026-09-13
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? Yes	Open	469	12¢	-$10	-18%	2026-09-20
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes	Open	236	20¢	-$10	-22%	2026-09-13
USMCA extended in 2026? Yes	Open	59	33¢	-$11	-57%	2026-12-31
Will Arsenal qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? No	Open	400	10¢	-$12	-30%	2027-09-01
Will SPD win at least 31% of all valid second votes? No	Open	500	64¢	-$13	-4%	2026-09-20
Will $ANSEM reach $1 before 2027? Yes	Open	225	13¢	-$13	-45%	2027-01-01
Will AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	217	17¢	-$14	-36%	2026-09-20
Will Byron Donalds win at least 75% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? No	Open	30	98¢	-$14	-47%	2026-08-18
Will Bruno Fernandes stay at Manchester United? No	Open	512	4¢	-$16	-71%	2026-09-02
Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid? Yes	Open	213	8¢	-$17	-96%	2026-08-31
Will Grüne win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	149	19¢	-$19	-66%	2026-09-20
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026? Yes	Open	678	36¢	-$22	-9%	2027-01-31
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes	Open	1,419	4¢	-$27	-51%	2026-12-31
Will Mark Carney visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No	Open	397	67¢	-$28	-11%	2026-12-31
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%? Over	Open	374	42¢	-$30	-19%	2026-09-20
Will CDU win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes	Open	197	28¢	-$31	-57%	2026-09-20
Will Ariana Grande's monthly listeners figure hit 105m by August 31? Yes	Open	195	20¢	-$33	-84%	2026-08-31
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%? Under	Open	602	49¢	-$34	-11%	2026-09-06
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	Open	919	12¢	-$36	-33%	2026-10-04
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? No	Open	872	48¢	-$39	-9%	2027-01-01
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of August 2026? Yes	Open	630	21¢	-$41	-31%	2026-08-31
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $4B by December 31? No	Open	313	79¢	-$43	-17%	2027-01-01
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31? No	Open	436	57¢	-$49	-20%	2027-01-01
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	309	25¢	-$66	-87%	2026-08-31
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes	Open	2,908	3¢	-$77	-88%	2026-12-31
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31? No	Open	835	58¢	-$83	-17%	2027-01-01
Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election? Yes	Open	519	34¢	-$85	-48%	2027-04-17
Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD? CDU	Open	348	67¢	-$99	-43%	2026-09-20
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by December 31? No	Open	977	20¢	-$104	-53%	2027-01-01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	600	24¢	-$142	-99%	2026-09-01
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No	Open	1,514	49¢	-$182	-25%	2026-12-31
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes	Open	563	39¢	-$203	-94%	2026-08-31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes	Open	7,453	23¢	-$681	-40%	2027-01-01

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