{
  "schema_version": "settlement-boundary-recompute/1",
  "filing": "AsPredicted #296461",
  "computed_at_utc": "2026-09-04T12:08:09.379710+00:00",
  "window_start": "2026-06-13",
  "published_verdict": {
    "verdict": "pass",
    "rho": 0.15894009903011985,
    "ci": {
      "point": 0.15894009903011985,
      "lo": 0.06335429502697414,
      "hi": 0.2546612784374132,
      "level": 0.95,
      "ci_method": "bootstrap_percentile_resample_wallets",
      "n_boot": 10000,
      "n_wallets": 464
    },
    "n_wallets": 464,
    "n_forward_positions": 19740,
    "computed_at_utc": "2026-07-03T06:15:09.739354+00:00"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "artifact": {
      "path": "docs/ops/evidence/clv-edge-forward-verdict/latest.json",
      "sha256": "bc545753eac1ea6489dbdb2005ee417c708d300040a999b99584cac160c209c9"
    },
    "ranking_clv": {
      "path": "docs/ops/evidence/clv-edge-forward-verdict/ranking_clv.json",
      "sha256": "cb8c21a6253087092dfdd411f1b219f2916e91aeb455b2465b8ea0c997b0924a"
    },
    "archives_verified_against_manifest": [
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260608.jsonl",
        "sha256": "b60a7e3cfbd8d1095f7270cbacfa227a8152909f26a376a417a0ce199f19068b"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260609.jsonl",
        "sha256": "0a9ceb3ae07baadc5ce047932a75c80ca8e9fbb072766c80a3417a33dafffa16"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260610.jsonl",
        "sha256": "c35642e940a87e7656bcc4cf333d3d2a0b88eb1de4a2b01bd51296d7d7d5f11f"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260611.jsonl",
        "sha256": "c27aa0c5de600a49b6e09a11864c5aea8d94151796314a960a028ec9ce17efee"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260612.jsonl",
        "sha256": "6c6c982bd946c880b1377a9fd281d2e502b20f3c80fcf40ab56f686db022a2ae"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260613.jsonl",
        "sha256": "3134d5996aff65e1c230d798ff89196571b366899c64ae99d1bedb9a872faf56"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260614.jsonl",
        "sha256": "8385665df62dcb62383f5784d2495409b1f4aa6e89988342368c150444669d1f"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260615.jsonl",
        "sha256": "8b7174b3a9be2a89fa44148cb40d1baec8939b502b18b3e3ce4c34ade0a72739"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260616.jsonl",
        "sha256": "00770f0b2e0ef0502ca96253b4015853b62bb7ec4e6da03b708d1c20289ac44a"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260617.jsonl",
        "sha256": "119138a9a8356c2805f1f8e79f8b91c1f629401864a217d24eac5d88a13e3353"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260618.jsonl",
        "sha256": "8632080eae8323ad58666f1ad65f21f177818f8615723f7bfe1d4347b2035b24"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260620.jsonl",
        "sha256": "1db391b976351ce509fc5b12c4f802434123d5b06edb72faa41a4e0331c86ef0"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260621.jsonl",
        "sha256": "145977e965f2e1b38958b365efc8e2022214e55e78eaadf87a5e16a9efbd5574"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260622.jsonl",
        "sha256": "923638c96ff12c6c608fc15add67796166c7cc70eb227e460f2c997cb349a4a0"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260623.jsonl",
        "sha256": "2ae6beb48ab0284bf86cd9543f52d9f1ce1809839982dc65712cb6489531432e"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260625.jsonl",
        "sha256": "16893ed244908099e37ad259e0571f1bac4d30e3216914fae5105de6cc1b7fd5"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260626.jsonl",
        "sha256": "802601491fdd68e323e8ee8d4dbbfeada12bf91bbee2560eba311b67d658c91d"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260627.jsonl",
        "sha256": "699c0f4f5ce37c2b6abcfae03ef084998fe9be4483b1e973fa853f287f2f130a"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260628.jsonl",
        "sha256": "d628a9672a8caee60927a5d1a28fb010af79be45de32e22019fb3f83803457e9"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260629.jsonl",
        "sha256": "b4bf8c0fdd697d0a155aa30dfd7669e26d09dd1fd6d66b276a099148f7053775"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260630.jsonl",
        "sha256": "8acc5f187cb0f4bd6469954a531bfea7f340bd255174e255166360b0d81c4df2"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260701.jsonl",
        "sha256": "741d5a457529019c7014c8abad86cc2695f2f4d9f1f584f98fd5982a573f230a"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260702.jsonl",
        "sha256": "b7106a5406f971bf33ba64241a67145a70253c8f4368a19b0b34d828071fc6ba"
      }
    ],
    "gamma_markets": {
      "path": "docs/ops/evidence/settlement-recompute/2026-09-03/gamma-settlement-296461.jsonl",
      "sha256": "74fd1a4b30a53866be065a3c23f71ed3c9626de1dbe3a41614dbc7c7cd0162a3",
      "rows": 38016
    },
    "chain_settlements": {
      "path": "docs/ops/evidence/settlement-recompute/2026-09-03/chain-settlements-296461.jsonl",
      "sha256": "2be2f0009f0787f4e31a7f0f45f10b94b378ac9d53ed5f9eaa0f99754824996a",
      "rows": 38016
    },
    "chain_sweep_summary": {
      "generated_at": "2026-09-04T00:04:47.916919+00:00",
      "artifact": "docs/ops/evidence/clv-edge-forward-verdict/latest.json",
      "contract": "0x4d97dcd97ec945f40cf65f87097ace5ea0476045",
      "event_topic0": "0xb44d84d3289691f71497564b85d4233648d9dbae8cbdbb4329f301c3a0185894",
      "from_date": "2026-05-20",
      "to_date": "2026-09-03",
      "from_block": 87140281,
      "to_block": 93125710,
      "conditions_wanted": 38016,
      "conditions_found": 38016,
      "conditions_not_found_in_range": 0,
      "getlogs_pages": 1116,
      "distinct_settlement_blocks": 23666,
      "rpc_calls": {
        "eth_blockNumber": 2,
        "eth_getBlockByNumber": 23718,
        "eth_getLogs": 1123
      },
      "rpc_calls_total": 24843,
      "gap_fill": {
        "generated_at": "2026-09-04T00:47:17.670463+00:00",
        "from_date": "2025-06-01",
        "to_date": "2026-05-20",
        "from_block": 72211085,
        "to_block": 87140280,
        "missing_before": 1244,
        "found": 1244,
        "still_missing": 0,
        "rpc_calls": {
          "eth_blockNumber": 2,
          "eth_getBlockByNumber": 1055,
          "eth_getLogs": 1244
        },
        "rpc_calls_total": 2301
      }
    }
  },
  "operators": {
    "scheduled": {
      "settlement_source_tally": {
        "scheduled_as_archived": 94125
      },
      "verdict": {
        "verdict": "pass",
        "rho": 0.15894009903011985,
        "ci": {
          "point": 0.15894009903011985,
          "lo": 0.06335429502697414,
          "hi": 0.2546612784374132,
          "level": 0.95,
          "ci_method": "bootstrap_percentile_resample_wallets",
          "n_boot": 10000,
          "n_wallets": 464
        },
        "pass_conditions": {
          "rho_ge_bar": true,
          "ci_lo_gt_zero": true,
          "spearman_bar": 0.1
        },
        "n_wallets": 464,
        "n_forward_positions": 19740,
        "floor_status": {
          "ranking_coverage_met": true,
          "forward_wallets_met": true,
          "forward_pooled_met": true
        },
        "secondary_paired_diff": {
          "point_diff": -0.09175685967369551,
          "lo": -0.18363477364466832,
          "hi": 0.0014065130009111259,
          "level": 0.95,
          "ci_method": "bootstrap_percentile_resample_wallets",
          "n_boot": 10000,
          "note": "Secondary comparison, NO pass/fail: forward Spearman(CLV-rank) minus forward Spearman(realized-edge-rank) against the shared forward DV."
        },
        "exclusion_counts": {
          "rows_total": 94125,
          "excluded_unparseable_date": 0,
          "excluded_before_window": 26617,
          "excluded_bad_resolution": 0,
          "excluded_micro_market": 5587,
          "excluded_bad_entry_price": 0,
          "excluded_missing_won": 0,
          "excluded_non_objective_won": 1976,
          "excluded_duplicate": 0,
          "qualifying_positions": 59945
        },
        "coverage": {
          "n_ranking_wallets_input": 3509,
          "n_ranking_wallets_clearing_floors": 2572,
          "n_forward_wallets_active": 1676,
          "n_forward_wallets_clearing_floor": 720,
          "note": "Every wallet count here is a DENOMINATOR travelling with the estimate: ranking-side wallets clearing both ranking floors, forward-side wallets clearing the forward per-wallet floor, and the intersection used for the correlation. Uncovered wallets are counted, never dropped silently."
        }
      },
      "admitted_positions": 59945,
      "correlation_pool_positions": 19740,
      "correlation_pool_wallets": 464,
      "diagnostic_below_floor_not_preregistered": {
        "n_wallets": 464,
        "n_forward_positions": 19740,
        "rho": 0.15894009903011985,
        "ci": [
          0.06335429502697414,
          0.2546612784374132
        ],
        "wallets_floor": 300,
        "floors_met": true,
        "note": "not pre-registered; the frozen rule refuses a verdict below the floors"
      }
    },
    "venue": {
      "settlement_source_tally": {
        "closedTime": 94125
      },
      "verdict": {
        "verdict": "insufficient_sample",
        "rho": null,
        "ci": null,
        "n_wallets": 155,
        "n_forward_positions": 9617,
        "floor_status": {
          "ranking_coverage_met": true,
          "forward_wallets_met": false,
          "forward_pooled_met": true
        },
        "secondary_paired_diff": null,
        "exclusion_counts": {
          "rows_total": 94125,
          "excluded_unparseable_date": 0,
          "excluded_before_window": 44273,
          "excluded_bad_resolution": 0,
          "excluded_micro_market": 5587,
          "excluded_bad_entry_price": 0,
          "excluded_missing_won": 0,
          "excluded_non_objective_won": 1565,
          "excluded_duplicate": 0,
          "qualifying_positions": 42700
        },
        "coverage": {
          "n_ranking_wallets_input": 3509,
          "n_ranking_wallets_clearing_floors": 2572,
          "n_forward_wallets_active": 939,
          "n_forward_wallets_clearing_floor": 372,
          "note": "Every wallet count here is a DENOMINATOR travelling with the estimate: ranking-side wallets clearing both ranking floors, forward-side wallets clearing the forward per-wallet floor, and the intersection used for the correlation. Uncovered wallets are counted, never dropped silently."
        }
      },
      "admitted_positions": 42700,
      "correlation_pool_positions": 9617,
      "correlation_pool_wallets": 155,
      "diagnostic_below_floor_not_preregistered": {
        "n_wallets": 155,
        "n_forward_positions": 9617,
        "rho": 0.14494215461957397,
        "ci": [
          -0.02336720749608418,
          0.3060870825674115
        ],
        "wallets_floor": 300,
        "floors_met": false,
        "note": "not pre-registered; the frozen rule refuses a verdict below the floors"
      }
    },
    "chain": {
      "settlement_source_tally": {
        "chain_block_time": 94125
      },
      "verdict": {
        "verdict": "insufficient_sample",
        "rho": null,
        "ci": null,
        "n_wallets": 155,
        "n_forward_positions": 9617,
        "floor_status": {
          "ranking_coverage_met": true,
          "forward_wallets_met": false,
          "forward_pooled_met": true
        },
        "secondary_paired_diff": null,
        "exclusion_counts": {
          "rows_total": 94125,
          "excluded_unparseable_date": 0,
          "excluded_before_window": 44276,
          "excluded_bad_resolution": 0,
          "excluded_micro_market": 5587,
          "excluded_bad_entry_price": 0,
          "excluded_missing_won": 0,
          "excluded_non_objective_won": 1565,
          "excluded_duplicate": 0,
          "qualifying_positions": 42697
        },
        "coverage": {
          "n_ranking_wallets_input": 3509,
          "n_ranking_wallets_clearing_floors": 2572,
          "n_forward_wallets_active": 938,
          "n_forward_wallets_clearing_floor": 372,
          "note": "Every wallet count here is a DENOMINATOR travelling with the estimate: ranking-side wallets clearing both ranking floors, forward-side wallets clearing the forward per-wallet floor, and the intersection used for the correlation. Uncovered wallets are counted, never dropped silently."
        }
      },
      "admitted_positions": 42697,
      "correlation_pool_positions": 9617,
      "correlation_pool_wallets": 155,
      "diagnostic_below_floor_not_preregistered": {
        "n_wallets": 155,
        "n_forward_positions": 9617,
        "rho": 0.14494215461957397,
        "ci": [
          -0.02336720749608418,
          0.3060870825674115
        ],
        "wallets_floor": 300,
        "floors_met": false,
        "note": "not pre-registered; the frozen rule refuses a verdict below the floors"
      }
    }
  },
  "deltas": {
    "scheduled_vs_venue": {
      "wrongly_admitted_under_scheduled": {
        "admitted_pool": 17561,
        "correlation_pool": 10256
      },
      "wrongly_excluded_under_scheduled": {
        "admitted_pool": 316,
        "correlation_pool": 133
      },
      "admitted_pool_share_changed": 0.2982,
      "correlation_pool_share_changed": 0.5263
    },
    "scheduled_vs_chain": {
      "wrongly_admitted_under_scheduled": {
        "admitted_pool": 17561,
        "correlation_pool": 10256
      },
      "wrongly_excluded_under_scheduled": {
        "admitted_pool": 313,
        "correlation_pool": 133
      },
      "admitted_pool_share_changed": 0.2982,
      "correlation_pool_share_changed": 0.5263
    },
    "venue_vs_chain": {
      "wrongly_admitted_under_venue": {
        "admitted_pool": 4,
        "correlation_pool": 0
      },
      "wrongly_excluded_under_venue": {
        "admitted_pool": 1,
        "correlation_pool": 0
      },
      "admitted_pool_share_changed": 0.0001,
      "correlation_pool_share_changed": 0.0
    }
  },
  "source_cross_check": {
    "conditions_with_both_sources": 38016,
    "settlement_day_differs": 3,
    "window_membership_differs": 2,
    "chain_minus_venue_hours": {
      "median": 0.0,
      "p10": 0.0,
      "p90": 0.0,
      "max_abs": 573.622
    }
  },
  "reading_rule": "wrongly_admitted_under_scheduled = positions the published verdict admitted whose settlement fell before the window start (direction A); wrongly_excluded_under_scheduled = positions it excluded whose settlement fell on or after it (direction B). Both populations are reported: the admitted pool and the positions the correlation rests on."
}