{
  "schema_version": "wallet_skill_fdr_forward_verdict_v1",
  "pre_registration": "AsPredicted #294147",
  "computed_at_utc": "2026-08-31T10:31:23.149454+00:00",
  "window": {
    "start": "20260602",
    "end": "20260830"
  },
  "frozen": {
    "alpha_one_sided": 0.025,
    "n_permutations": 10000,
    "permutation_seed": 20260531,
    "n_bca_resamples": 2000,
    "bca_seed": 20260601,
    "per_wallet_floor": 10,
    "candidate_coverage_floor": 40,
    "candidate_pooled_floor": 1000,
    "candidate_set_size": 178,
    "control_set_size": 3693,
    "forward_window_days": 90,
    "methodology_hash": "39f07abfcabb84e914231200f7cf1f9c33a843cbef585c2faf1369d20bdb4f69",
    "registry_sha256": "5478f7c47b8296b295be9c2b85215ce4f517d68c2b1778f8bea3a65137ec20a9"
  },
  "verdict": "persistence_confirmed",
  "edge_pooled_candidate": 0.03831477672551269,
  "edge_pooled_control": 0.008877597636326973,
  "T": 0.029437179089185722,
  "leg_a_relative": {
    "statistic_T": 0.029437179089185722,
    "permutation_pvalue": 0.0026997300269973002,
    "alpha_one_sided": 0.025,
    "n_permutations": 10000,
    "seed": 20260531,
    "pass": true,
    "pvalue_floor": "davison_hinkley (count+1)/(n_perm+1)"
  },
  "leg_b_absolute": {
    "bca_ci": {
      "point": 0.03831477672551269,
      "lo": 0.020926834268161314,
      "hi": 0.06177733773496889,
      "level": 0.95,
      "ci_method": "bootstrap_bca",
      "n": 139,
      "n_boot": 2000,
      "extra": {
        "z0": -0.0928786087772564,
        "a": -0.13239388048196676,
        "p_lo": 0.0017963023021692023,
        "p_hi": 0.9198635330076725
      },
      "n_effective_kish": 5.27965644797156,
      "n_units_note": "n is the NOMINAL resampled wallet-cluster count. The effective independent-unit count on the same pool is n_effective_kish = (sum n_i)^2 / sum n_i^2. Read the interval's precision against the effective figure, not against n."
    },
    "lower_bound_gt_zero": true,
    "n_resamples": 2000,
    "seed": 20260601,
    "pass": true
  },
  "counts": {
    "n_pooled_candidate": 71486,
    "n_pooled_control": 441347,
    "n_qualifying_candidate_wallets": 63,
    "n_qualifying_control_wallets": 1527,
    "n_active_candidate_wallets": 139,
    "n_active_control_wallets": 2406
  },
  "exclusion_counts": {
    "rows_total": 570814,
    "excluded_not_in_frozen_set": 0,
    "excluded_unparseable_date": 0,
    "excluded_before_window": 0,
    "excluded_after_window": 0,
    "excluded_bad_resolution": 0,
    "excluded_micro_market": 47253,
    "excluded_bad_entry_price": 0,
    "excluded_missing_won": 0,
    "excluded_non_objective_won": 10561,
    "excluded_duplicate": 0,
    "excluded_quarantined_resolution": 167,
    "qualifying_candidate": 71486,
    "qualifying_control": 441347
  },
  "floors": {
    "per_wallet_floor": 10,
    "candidate_coverage_floor": 40,
    "candidate_pooled_floor": 1000
  },
  "floor_status": {
    "candidate_coverage_met": true,
    "candidate_pooled_met": true
  },
  "maturation": {
    "n_pooled_candidate": 71486,
    "min_pooled": 1000,
    "n_qualifying_candidate_wallets": 63,
    "min_candidate_wallets": 40,
    "days_to_window_end": -1,
    "floors_met": true,
    "note": "window CLOSED; this is the terminal readout."
  },
  "frozen_sets": {
    "analysis_id": "skilled-wallet-fdr-discretionary-v1",
    "analysis_version": "1.0.0",
    "inputs": {
      "snapshot_name": "wallet_resolved_positions_discretionary_min30_20260425.csv",
      "snapshot_sha256": "0e12fe1ffd9e38d364d85ad6530ea5f9fedd42e536a0b0d2b910164f88e99b88",
      "parent_csv_name": "wallet_all_positions_20260425_201800.csv",
      "parent_csv_sha256": "cf95c5f1b9a957477f6b3c98bdf235744eff8f34230083a4c8bffd4657ef2ec6",
      "n_positions_total": 378424,
      "micro_market_positions_excluded": 118195,
      "wallets_with_any_micro_position": 2546
    },
    "n_candidate_frozen": 178,
    "n_control_frozen": 3693
  },
  "manifest": {
    "n_input_archives": 82,
    "frozen_registry_sha256": "5478f7c47b8296b295be9c2b85215ce4f517d68c2b1778f8bea3a65137ec20a9",
    "archive_sha256": [
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260608.jsonl",
        "sha256": "b60a7e3cfbd8d1095f7270cbacfa227a8152909f26a376a417a0ce199f19068b"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260609.jsonl",
        "sha256": "0a9ceb3ae07baadc5ce047932a75c80ca8e9fbb072766c80a3417a33dafffa16"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260610.jsonl",
        "sha256": "c35642e940a87e7656bcc4cf333d3d2a0b88eb1de4a2b01bd51296d7d7d5f11f"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260611.jsonl",
        "sha256": "c27aa0c5de600a49b6e09a11864c5aea8d94151796314a960a028ec9ce17efee"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260612.jsonl",
        "sha256": "6c6c982bd946c880b1377a9fd281d2e502b20f3c80fcf40ab56f686db022a2ae"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260613.jsonl",
        "sha256": "3134d5996aff65e1c230d798ff89196571b366899c64ae99d1bedb9a872faf56"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260614.jsonl",
        "sha256": "8385665df62dcb62383f5784d2495409b1f4aa6e89988342368c150444669d1f"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260615.jsonl",
        "sha256": "8b7174b3a9be2a89fa44148cb40d1baec8939b502b18b3e3ce4c34ade0a72739"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260616.jsonl",
        "sha256": "00770f0b2e0ef0502ca96253b4015853b62bb7ec4e6da03b708d1c20289ac44a"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260617.jsonl",
        "sha256": "119138a9a8356c2805f1f8e79f8b91c1f629401864a217d24eac5d88a13e3353"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260618.jsonl",
        "sha256": "8632080eae8323ad58666f1ad65f21f177818f8615723f7bfe1d4347b2035b24"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260620.jsonl",
        "sha256": "1db391b976351ce509fc5b12c4f802434123d5b06edb72faa41a4e0331c86ef0"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260621.jsonl",
        "sha256": "145977e965f2e1b38958b365efc8e2022214e55e78eaadf87a5e16a9efbd5574"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260622.jsonl",
        "sha256": "923638c96ff12c6c608fc15add67796166c7cc70eb227e460f2c997cb349a4a0"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260623.jsonl",
        "sha256": "2ae6beb48ab0284bf86cd9543f52d9f1ce1809839982dc65712cb6489531432e"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260625.jsonl",
        "sha256": "16893ed244908099e37ad259e0571f1bac4d30e3216914fae5105de6cc1b7fd5"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260626.jsonl",
        "sha256": "802601491fdd68e323e8ee8d4dbbfeada12bf91bbee2560eba311b67d658c91d"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260627.jsonl",
        "sha256": "699c0f4f5ce37c2b6abcfae03ef084998fe9be4483b1e973fa853f287f2f130a"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260628.jsonl",
        "sha256": "d628a9672a8caee60927a5d1a28fb010af79be45de32e22019fb3f83803457e9"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260629.jsonl",
        "sha256": "b4bf8c0fdd697d0a155aa30dfd7669e26d09dd1fd6d66b276a099148f7053775"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260630.jsonl",
        "sha256": "8acc5f187cb0f4bd6469954a531bfea7f340bd255174e255166360b0d81c4df2"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260701.jsonl",
        "sha256": "741d5a457529019c7014c8abad86cc2695f2f4d9f1f584f98fd5982a573f230a"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260702.jsonl",
        "sha256": "b7106a5406f971bf33ba64241a67145a70253c8f4368a19b0b34d828071fc6ba"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260703.jsonl",
        "sha256": "ccfd783fc3fa73991de70fde2beb27cb39b8e8c2133a6ac1f6873a7e32885709"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260704.jsonl",
        "sha256": "821be76d5cc22f188f5d7493e479444fc9b21c6365dce08aa15156c7f2a119a2"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260705.jsonl",
        "sha256": "ed2714ea35bea7a02942d9e6f50e3ead2f0ad8f3f1e78d5976d4ec5c0d48ae7f"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260706.jsonl",
        "sha256": "1fba2c26683d78a8b6dd577938f6317ce29b069bf55acffd67d3ec50e335cebe"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260707.jsonl",
        "sha256": "7a017ecf6eff1f257bb33ad0f17c5e8504ebdb84f559a5b88e1e75b2d5548be3"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260708.jsonl",
        "sha256": "c0e55946a8d6c4cee9ba8e173519f331e94070c4bbdadc038b23f98bbe07970c"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260709.jsonl",
        "sha256": "cbf488d845d6d60637e62e9e736e310a8ca68666754a65bc2315cf1de6823cab"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260710.jsonl",
        "sha256": "e36c71112478331fd969da57a051b28485ccc7b334ff3038e0a2b6d59733c6e1"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260711.jsonl",
        "sha256": "217b7205bcdf9fb40566ec0dd06ee9ad8c0faffca7e10807c9089f48d0237798"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260712.jsonl",
        "sha256": "7ea1cf04d562ac329994814871864a0d78198f5ec447172147f03a8075bd23cf"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260713.jsonl",
        "sha256": "b423febe1e5a1db2d1836689242a1f211fd9ed1b7f4c25103e6afeadfd6fcfe1"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260714.jsonl",
        "sha256": "9267741f0df33d0df78c5c330e1ca06c12b6619d25bf122f4df4cd2f54c1a36d"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260715.jsonl",
        "sha256": "6f15ed5bd8adbe83877f2a6e7913bf77c00e4b952180c59a0d1da9a450208f74"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260716.jsonl",
        "sha256": "edd51d5b0848b380fbeb040be020156b3916e65d41ac0d0a6cb1b685135363db"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260717.jsonl",
        "sha256": "f8f5ae712a838dd1c8770a74fb9d7e6f3cea3c4663713a82fdce92859beed763"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260718.jsonl",
        "sha256": "3cf37fb90e3c13776596959cfd4ad54101f6404244dd7aec9361599390eaf740"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260719.jsonl",
        "sha256": "0f92a82c75b17d28b7856e18cfaa8bb55c1ad6341a89579f4689ce4dccd7e2e8"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260720.jsonl",
        "sha256": "60a2581a084ec1f9c6d93fa69ffb81a9d0751326da80b0d62dacda8fb708edad"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260721.jsonl",
        "sha256": "1877a3b03d8719c29ae3898293ef1c980c9214efcc6ba77a84315e5936dc02c8"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260722.jsonl",
        "sha256": "826137559dd93da74f944ffaf516e2d76edcc1124380c06854bf716239d7076b"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260723.jsonl",
        "sha256": "4607b410dfd84c31b2479a84696f8ef0305b6e18edde1ec6ddc452ffb7de4873"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260724.jsonl",
        "sha256": "4e55a51ebc5783ec04364b3a5326691c70ef7f3dd9697646a79717055bc5fd10"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260725.jsonl",
        "sha256": "3e6d8acab58e7568c23690d753268ee06e945873ec86d96c3a19c974d8a531c5"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260726.jsonl",
        "sha256": "3a8f08d26ce633fb40f06470e38301d0a84ffb1ad7b27ea06e3e767abbb698bd"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260727.jsonl",
        "sha256": "fa9b8cd868498251b7befb5167c23797d5435afa87d93f05c0377e6e9a77d06d"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260728.jsonl",
        "sha256": "45695056ced499a3083ae85fb9a68a6f4c66ab77a057e947b0537fbd073234ab"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260729.jsonl",
        "sha256": "f5bf2abe8edc8337e08a243ae13aa8af07afb3e7e82b10ff6c1e9116d5fe2c41"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260730.jsonl",
        "sha256": "bef1e9de3921d41cfd36f604735be1af69e00f00f984fb1de7efb82317406927"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260731.jsonl",
        "sha256": "5376e1a0901971afac7a6e66971c108b1a04b4d9bcf20efe30d8ea4b66897bdb"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260801.jsonl",
        "sha256": "83c5c294252bf2605f0ad099908364acce21bcf04567dac40993d8045917cb06"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260803.jsonl",
        "sha256": "edb856c7a5edac1f52049aba3f0f28227efdcfee166de74c713b4df2a760ef34"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260804.jsonl",
        "sha256": "424cfadb45e2ad55bf45be20ec10ccea5d745ac2b66326ba9cfe808380afa941"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260805.jsonl",
        "sha256": "beb23ef617f79f40ca1a347d0c0e0333c4189095a119eda67edf2a897dae947c"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260806.jsonl",
        "sha256": "db8f26b14b1f89851ebe9e03647aa939b662087b711cb33a003616ec2088a092"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260807.jsonl",
        "sha256": "b8f32efae464493e9dd7d627611d83e91ccb23a5220e61c61497e07f69557351"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260808.jsonl",
        "sha256": "27ef8181d162d3e309f5a5971f3a30f2fa77ec3cee8c7683b41644f509310bba"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260809.jsonl",
        "sha256": "33e79be504f5d4e88bf3cb8d158742ab2e2ecc77b7395c2d84ea73c058585cbe"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260810.jsonl",
        "sha256": "de18f0d7155ddbe4a45df1dfb6c0d7675d505b4df1bfdde981f4976ca3c0ac8c"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260811.jsonl",
        "sha256": "c2f4562f59797ca8a92fef24b2367b36891d34e1e7226f6516810de9ad1f3d01"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260812.jsonl",
        "sha256": "adc295e8ff9d9d7494a5dd25a94dcef9be1f9996f549a109ec7a0f191ff9f154"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260813.jsonl",
        "sha256": "23da7fd40cb9064226319bc8facbf67db6a04f7eaadb4ea605da906400c6144c"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260814.jsonl",
        "sha256": "07d79715f7383cb3be21c7de8de66cee6306f5db93f0b05a0b0ef5d2d9974345"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260815.jsonl",
        "sha256": "7325b90e9fff4341e9f93a0d4241a5e9c0da435454bcf74dce6b84ef79dd7c95"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260816.jsonl",
        "sha256": "fe48b66d07c9f4c52607e9059758dcecfff8af31fe0f66e3bce4ce4b77af6cf9"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260817.jsonl",
        "sha256": "8ede72eea259baf23698379640f7a248be2745f7367b0dd7c867e95598860231"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260818.jsonl",
        "sha256": "4b404583bcb590840c0770c9aeaf41b51380d9e07addc4d18d224392de612232"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260819.jsonl",
        "sha256": "3111db69840b288104501d318bac7c5d887249cb3ae595173fd98c3331d4f8c6"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260820.jsonl",
        "sha256": "cdac466a098b31c4201ab1cfef25dd7ec926bbd48b1cf7ce326cf2f2040760b3"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260821.jsonl",
        "sha256": "e0ef1339a6f9e3c13e317417102442e2a4286f66fe3ab6a25282af8570d5b0e8"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260822.jsonl",
        "sha256": "83f463c7c606fdf19699fa3fd924c86137ed4efbb246b8998d783fd609841ec6"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260823.jsonl",
        "sha256": "30fbf02a686385efde335c0ddcb30ac5dca383085929e09ecb88720f7390ebde"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260824.jsonl",
        "sha256": "fc99f0f1f0528030b025cf6d7ad60aace18d7fc6ed2e142a25d28cb5e6349571"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260825.jsonl",
        "sha256": "363957ac9afe215ce14b3075b49f65df69b919e69af03d27d5aa98083e4f54cf"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260826.jsonl",
        "sha256": "bfd2b8e739feb4e60d1de513e3e99908947698b99a1435c971174305280bc4a2"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260827.jsonl",
        "sha256": "d67b934e5ae889cda5ab5556694e7fe6a9a4922051fa94b9f4713337b097645d"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260828.jsonl",
        "sha256": "01d74e20c5ccfd0c013bf33438b5269858e392747c9549c94920db30e6b1aa51"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260829.jsonl",
        "sha256": "bb2b636345e68a6707453037510ab94c795438e3a896d40f54b58267e56d9491"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260830.jsonl",
        "sha256": "4fd0ed540f3255fd4b0198847e653b426f3d25d0c2168e2075e6caf0868b0df1"
      },
      {
        "path": "services/api/scripts/skilled_wallet_fdr/forward_data/20260831.jsonl",
        "sha256": "7c0a4654d4eb50270dbf081e6152250422cb1b2451780023c39b2e66e9a038e6"
      }
    ],
    "code_git_sha": "7bfb219c3c645c3b68d92a1a192a781bb18a8f0c",
    "permutation_seed": 20260531,
    "bca_seed": 20260601
  },
  "claim_boundary": "EXTERNAL PUBLICATION FOUNDER-GATED. insufficient_sample and no_persistence are valid pre-registered outcomes, not failures. No 'validated/alpha/proven/significant/forward-skill' language without a founder-reviewed, floor-met verdict.",
  "secondaries": {
    "note": "Pre-registered SECONDARY descriptive readouts (pre-reg field 5). Robustness context only; the primary verdict above is computed without them.",
    "equal_weight_contrast": {
      "n_qualifying_candidate_wallets": 63,
      "n_qualifying_control_wallets": 1527,
      "per_wallet_floor": 10,
      "equal_weight_mean_candidate": 0.06415610808876987,
      "equal_weight_mean_control": 0.006312070743522728,
      "difference": 0.057844037345247144,
      "permutation_pvalue": 0.00009999000099990002,
      "n_permutations": 10000,
      "permutation_seed": 20260714,
      "pvalue_floor": "davison_hinkley (count+1)/(n_perm+1)",
      "bca_ci_difference": {
        "point": 0.057844037345247144,
        "lo": 0.031113754719520745,
        "hi": 0.08855354168428962,
        "level": 0.95,
        "ci_method": "bootstrap_bca",
        "n": 1590,
        "n_boot": 2000,
        "extra": {
          "z0": 0.0401168101849681,
          "a": 0.009018914904029526,
          "p_lo": 0.0323696487886457,
          "p_hi": 0.981096402419388
        }
      },
      "n_bca_resamples": 2000,
      "bca_seed": 20260715
    },
    "per_arm_forward_readout": {
      "win_rate_definition": "share of the arm's qualifying pooled forward positions whose held outcome resolved true, recovered exactly as d_i > 0 (entry price is strictly interior to (0,1) by the field-6 filter). Descriptive price-level/activity readout, NOT the frozen skill measure and not comparable across arms as skill.",
      "candidate_interval_note": "the candidate arm's edge_pooled_bca_ci is the FROZEN leg-b interval recomputed at the same seed and the same machinery, so it restates the primary absolute test rather than adding an independent second estimate of the same quantity.",
      "candidate": {
        "n_pooled_positions": 71486,
        "n_wins": 52482,
        "win_rate": 0.7341577371793079,
        "win_rate_wilson_ci": {
          "point": 0.7341577371793079,
          "lo": 0.7309067145010462,
          "hi": 0.7373835952387491,
          "level": 0.95,
          "ci_method": "wilson",
          "n": 71486,
          "extra": {
            "wilson_center": 0.7341451548698976
          }
        },
        "edge_pooled": 0.03831477672551269,
        "edge_pooled_bca_ci": {
          "point": 0.03831477672551269,
          "lo": 0.020926834268161314,
          "hi": 0.06177733773496889,
          "level": 0.95,
          "ci_method": "bootstrap_bca",
          "n": 139,
          "n_boot": 2000,
          "extra": {
            "z0": -0.0928786087772564,
            "a": -0.13239388048196676,
            "p_lo": 0.0017963023021692023,
            "p_hi": 0.9198635330076725
          }
        },
        "n_bca_resamples": 2000,
        "bca_seed": 20260601,
        "n_active_wallets": 139,
        "n_qualifying_wallets": 63,
        "per_wallet_floor": 10
      },
      "control": {
        "n_pooled_positions": 441347,
        "n_wins": 247116,
        "win_rate": 0.559913174894131,
        "win_rate_wilson_ci": {
          "point": 0.559913174894131,
          "lo": 0.5584481659282869,
          "hi": 0.5613771409074186,
          "level": 0.95,
          "ci_method": "wilson",
          "n": 441347,
          "extra": {
            "wilson_center": 0.5599126534178528
          }
        },
        "edge_pooled": 0.008877597636326973,
        "edge_pooled_bca_ci": {
          "point": 0.008877597636326973,
          "lo": 0.006337789679769937,
          "hi": 0.012747004592042624,
          "level": 0.95,
          "ci_method": "bootstrap_bca",
          "n": 2406,
          "n_boot": 2000,
          "extra": {
            "z0": 0.0752698620998299,
            "a": 0.05024753351391833,
            "p_lo": 0.04984259559848237,
            "p_hi": 0.9904185680785367
          }
        },
        "n_bca_resamples": 2000,
        "bca_seed": 20260717,
        "n_active_wallets": 2406,
        "n_qualifying_wallets": 1527,
        "per_wallet_floor": 10
      }
    },
    "candidate_attrition": {
      "n_frozen_candidates": 178,
      "n_active": 139,
      "n_qualifying": 63,
      "fraction_qualifying": 0.3539325842696629,
      "per_wallet_floor": 10,
      "denominator_note": "fraction_qualifying is over the frozen candidate set, not over the forward-active subset. Every forward statistic in this artifact is conditional on the surviving slice; the non-surviving candidates are never imputed and their in-sample edge is never carried forward (pre-reg field 6)."
    },
    "insample_evidence_split": {
      "split_rule": "frozen in-sample n_positions >= 100 vs 30-99 (pre-reg field 5)",
      "interval_note": "each stratum's 95% interval is a wallet-level cluster BCa (2,000 resamples, seed SECONDARY_SPLIT_BCA_SEED) over the same pooled estimand as the primary. The strata are descriptive: overlapping intervals do NOT license a claim that persistence concentrates in either stratum, and no formal between-stratum test is pre-registered.",
      "insample_ge_100": {
        "edge_pooled": 0.039843934940008284,
        "n_wallets": 60,
        "n_positions": 67676,
        "bca_ci": {
          "point": 0.039843934940008284,
          "lo": 0.02200558840121691,
          "hi": 0.06645506725672476,
          "level": 0.95,
          "ci_method": "bootstrap_bca",
          "n": 60,
          "n_boot": 2000,
          "extra": {
            "z0": -0.1130385406445651,
            "a": -0.1372288337623858,
            "p_lo": 0.0013052995600944407,
            "p_hi": 0.9131535849781285
          }
        },
        "n_bca_resamples": 2000,
        "bca_seed": 20260716
      },
      "insample_30_99": {
        "edge_pooled": 0.011152752755905512,
        "n_wallets": 79,
        "n_positions": 3810,
        "bca_ci": {
          "point": 0.011152752755905515,
          "lo": -0.0019280841360321658,
          "hi": 0.030546849986369234,
          "level": 0.95,
          "ci_method": "bootstrap_bca",
          "n": 79,
          "n_boot": 2000,
          "extra": {
            "z0": 0.011280066443692957,
            "a": -0.011538208331519662,
            "p_lo": 0.023726948392424948,
            "p_hi": 0.9737302073864358
          }
        },
        "n_bca_resamples": 2000,
        "bca_seed": 20260716
      },
      "n_wallets_unstratified": 0
    },
    "preopened_sensitivity": {
      "pre_window_opened": {
        "edge_pooled_candidate": 0.11725503225806454,
        "edge_pooled_control": 0.012660120953653273,
        "T": 0.10459491130441126,
        "n_pooled_candidate": 155,
        "n_pooled_control": 9731,
        "n_active_candidate_wallets": 32,
        "n_active_control_wallets": 1181
      },
      "both_in_window": {
        "edge_pooled_candidate": 0.04631384542226114,
        "edge_pooled_control": 0.009520137417332361,
        "T": 0.03679370800492878,
        "n_pooled_candidate": 41112,
        "n_pooled_control": 290924,
        "n_active_candidate_wallets": 84,
        "n_active_control_wallets": 1730
      },
      "both_in_window_rerun": {
        "verdict": "persistence_confirmed",
        "floors_met": true,
        "n_qualifying_candidate_wallets": 46,
        "leg_a": {
          "statistic_T": 0.03679370800492878,
          "permutation_pvalue": 0.004299570042995701,
          "pass": true,
          "seed": 20260531
        },
        "leg_b": {
          "bca_ci": {
            "point": 0.04631384542226114,
            "lo": 0.023660172760184495,
            "hi": 0.07893753653506932,
            "level": 0.95,
            "ci_method": "bootstrap_bca",
            "n": 84,
            "n_boot": 2000,
            "extra": {
              "z0": -0.11051620356204167,
              "a": -0.1347458324027427,
              "p_lo": 0.001431162385942333,
              "p_hi": 0.914653921995622
            }
          },
          "pass": true,
          "seed": 20260601
        }
      },
      "rerun_verdict_agrees_with_primary": true,
      "candidate_coverage_by_resolution_month": [
        {
          "resolution_month": "2026-06",
          "n_candidate_rows": 27921,
          "n_with_opened_at": 2420,
          "coverage": 0.08667311342716952
        },
        {
          "resolution_month": "2026-07",
          "n_candidate_rows": 31964,
          "n_with_opened_at": 14150,
          "coverage": 0.4426855212113628
        },
        {
          "resolution_month": "2026-08",
          "n_candidate_rows": 27778,
          "n_with_opened_at": 27691,
          "coverage": 0.9968680250557995
        }
      ],
      "n_rows_with_opened_at": 370418,
      "n_rows_without_opened_at": 200338,
      "n_rows_opened_at_after_window": 58,
      "downgrade_rule": "pre-reg field 6: if the primary and the both-in-window sensitivity rerun disagree on the verdict at the terminal read, the verdict is downgraded to partial_persistence. This readout reports; the primary fields are never edited here."
    },
    "whole_cohort_baseline": {
      "edge_pooled_all_tested": 0.012980972778662841,
      "n_pooled_all_tested": 512833,
      "n_active_wallets_all_tested": 2545,
      "candidate_minus_all_tested": 0.02533380394684985,
      "candidate_share_of_pooled": 0.13939430574865502,
      "identity_implied_value": 0.02533380394684985,
      "identity_note": "candidate_minus_all_tested is NOT independent corroboration of leg (a). It is algebraically identical to (1 - candidate_share_of_pooled) * T, where T is the primary statistic edge_pooled(candidate) - edge_pooled(control), because the whole-cohort pool is exactly the union of the two arms: edge_all = w * edge_cand + (1 - w) * edge_ctrl, hence edge_cand - edge_all = (1 - w) * T. identity_implied_value is that right-hand side, emitted so the identity is verifiable in the artifact. Never present this delta as a second, corroborating test; it is a rescaling of the primary contrast."
    },
    "cluster_concentration": {
      "candidate": {
        "nominal_wallet_clusters": 139,
        "kish_n_eff": 5.27965644797156,
        "max_wallet_share_of_positions": 0.41241641720057076,
        "top5_wallet_share_of_positions": 0.6217161402232605,
        "n_pooled_positions": 71486
      },
      "control": {
        "nominal_wallet_clusters": 2406,
        "kish_n_eff": 244.83292920398495,
        "max_wallet_share_of_positions": 0.017856697791080487,
        "top5_wallet_share_of_positions": 0.07557545423442326,
        "n_pooled_positions": 441347
      },
      "definition": "kish_n_eff = (sum n_i)^2 / sum n_i^2 over each arm's ACTIVE wallets, n_i = that wallet's qualifying forward positions. It is the count of equally weighted clusters carrying the same precision as this position-weighted pool, and it is the honest answer to 'how many independent units is this', which the nominal cluster count is not.",
      "not_pre_registered": true
    },
    "leave_one_wallet_out": {
      "n_wallets_dropped": 139,
      "T_min": 0.025060334458493358,
      "T_max": 0.04521006699085139,
      "edge_candidate_min": 0.03393793209482033,
      "edge_candidate_max": 0.05408766462717836,
      "T_min_above_zero": true,
      "not_pre_registered": true,
      "note": "deterministic single-wallet drop sweep against the unchanged control arm; descriptive robustness only, no verdict reads it."
    },
    "ingestion_profile": {
      "stamped": true,
      "n_pooled_candidate": 71486,
      "largest_capture_day": {
        "capture_day": "20260731",
        "n_positions_first_seen": 9914,
        "share_of_candidate_arm": 0.13868449766387825,
        "edge_pooled_that_day": 0.07990872553964092
      },
      "top_capture_days": [
        {
          "capture_day": "20260731",
          "n_positions_first_seen": 9914,
          "share_of_candidate_arm": 0.13868449766387825,
          "edge_pooled_that_day": 0.07990872553964092
        },
        {
          "capture_day": "20260803",
          "n_positions_first_seen": 2378,
          "share_of_candidate_arm": 0.03326525473519291,
          "edge_pooled_that_day": 0.03559039192598823
        },
        {
          "capture_day": "20260816",
          "n_positions_first_seen": 2258,
          "share_of_candidate_arm": 0.03158660437008645,
          "edge_pooled_that_day": 0.0272722741364039
        },
        {
          "capture_day": "20260608",
          "n_positions_first_seen": 1819,
          "share_of_candidate_arm": 0.025445541784405338,
          "edge_pooled_that_day": 0.02267287080813634
        },
        {
          "capture_day": "20260823",
          "n_positions_first_seen": 1528,
          "share_of_candidate_arm": 0.021374814649022186,
          "edge_pooled_that_day": 0.04346946073298429
        }
      ],
      "not_pre_registered": true,
      "note": "capture day is the archive a position was FIRST seen in, not its resolution date. A large single day is an ingestion event, not 90 days of accrual, and its own pooled edge is reported so the reader can see how much of the headline it carries."
    },
    "days_to_window_end": -1
  },
  "window_closed": true,
  "library_versions": {
    "numpy": "2.4.4",
    "scipy": "1.17.1"
  }
}